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Success is the mother of confidence

How do you build confidence?  There are many ways but only one process: multiple small successes.  I am very much an advocate for boring trading.  What I mean by that is I trade the same edge over and over again without variation.  By trading the same edge over and over again I know when to get in and when to get out.  I know what to look for when a trade is working and I can safely add to my position.  On the other hand, I know what to look for when the trade is not working and I can exit with a small loss.  By following the rules EVERY TIME you can succeed, not in making money every time (impossible!), but by following the same plan every time.  These small successes give you the confidence to trust yourself each and every time your edge presents itself.  This is true in any new venture, whether it be golf, bowling, drawing, flying, etc.  Each small success gives birth to greater confidence which in turn brings further successes.  You can then replace a vicious circle of failure with a confident circle of success.  It is so EASY to want the lottery ticket or the home run every time at bat but HARD to accept when the numbers do not add up or when all the preparation leads to nothing more than the hard earned single.

10 Enemies of Trader

  1. Stubbornness: Not cutting losses short and sticking with a trading method that does not work.
  2. Arrogance: Believing that you are far smarter than the majority of market participants before their is any evidence that you really are is very dangerous.
  3. Opinions: The only opinion a good trader should hold is what they believe the price action is telling them after they have done the research of historical prices. Opinions about the future are useless unless you posses a fully functional crystal ball or time machine.Trading the price action in the present moment is what leads to success and profits.
  4. Bias: Getting stuck in bull mode or bear mode is dangerous and can lead to losses if you keep playing on a team that is losing day after day. Stay flexible in your trading and go with the flow you can spend both bull and bear sided profits the same way. (more…)

20 Wisdom Points from the Book ‘Superperformance Stocks’

If you read Jesse Livermore’s “How to Trade in Stocks” from 1940, Nicolas Darvas’s ‘How I made 2M in the stock market” from 1960, Richard Love’s “Superperformance Stocks” from 1977, William O’Neil’s early version of “How to make money in stocks” from the 1990s or Howard Lindzon’s “The Wallstrip Edge” from 2008, you will realize that after so many years, the main thing that has changed in the market is the names of the winning stocks. Everything else important – the catalysts, the cyclicality in sentiment, has remained the same.

Here are some incredible insights from Richard Love’s book ‘Superperformance Stocks’. In his eyes, a superperformance stock is one that has at least tripled within a two-year period.

1. The first consideration in buying stock is safety.

Safety is derived more from the good timing of the purchase and less from the financial strength of the company. The stocks of the nation’s largest and strongest corporations have dropped drastically during general stock market declines.

The best time to buy most stocks is when the market looks like a disaster. It is then that the risk is lowest and the potential rewards are highest.

2. All stocks are price-cyclical

For many years certain stocks have been considered to be cyclical; that is, the business of those companies rose and fell with the business cycle. It was also assumed that some industries and certain companies were noncyclical— little affected by the changes in business conditions. The attitude developed among investors that cyclical industries were to be avoided and that others, such as established growth companies, were to be favored. To a  certain extent this artificial division of companies into cyclical and noncyclical has been deceptive because although the earnings of some companies might be little affected by the business cycle the price of the stock is often as cyclical as that of companies strongly affected by the business cycle. Virtually all stocks are price-cyclical. Stocks that are not earnings-cyclical often have higher price/earnings ratios, and thus are susceptible to reactions when the primary trend of the market begins to decline. This can occur even during a period of increasing earnings.

3.  A Superb Company Does Not Necessarily Have a Superb Stock. There are no sure things in the market

There has been a considerable amount of investment advice over the years that has advocated buying quality. ”Stick to the blue chips,” it said, “and you won’t be hurt.” But the record reveals that an investor can be hurt severely if he buys a blue chip at the wrong time. And even if he does not lose financially, he usually has gained very little, particularly considering the risks he has taken. (more…)