Next week’s economic events and releases highlighted by US jobs on Friday

  • anada GDP 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 0.2% versus 0.1% last month
  • US consumer confidence 10 AM ET. Estimate 100.0 versus 102.5 last month

Wednesday, November 30:

  • US ADP nonfarm employment change estimate, 8:15 AM ET. Estimate 195K versus 239K last month
  • US preliminary GDP for Q3. 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 2.7% versus 2.6% flash
  • US JOLTs job openings. 10 AM ET. Estimate 10.33M versus 10.72M last month
  • Fed chair Powell speaks at the Brookings institute. 1:30 PM ET

Thursday, December 1

  • Swiss the CPI month-to-month, 2:30 AM ET. Estimate 0.2% versus 0.1% last
  • OPEC meeting all day
  • US core PC price index, 8:30 AM ET estimate 0.3% versus 015% last
  • US ISM manufacturing PMI. Estimate 49.8 versus 50.2 last

Friday, December 2

  • RBA Gov. low speaks, 9:40 PM ET Thursday
  • RBNZ Gov. or speaks, 11:30 PM ET Thursday
  • US nonfarm payroll, 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 200K versus 261K last month
  • US unemployment rate, 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 3.7% versus 3.7% last month
  • US hourly earnings, 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 0.3% versus 0.4% last month
  • Canada employment change, 8:30 AM ET. Last month 108.3 K
  • Canada unemployment rate, 8:30 AM ET. Last month 5.2%

JPMorgan target EUR/USD as low as 0.90 in the first half of 2023 (Fed, ECB to pause)

JPMorgan Research adopts a structural bearish bias on EUJR/USD in 2023 targeting the pair at 0.95 in Q1 and Q2 as well.

  • “Our economists’ expect the Fed and the ECB to pause in 1Q23 at 5% and 2.5% for the rest of 2023, leaving the policy rate differential just 50bp shy from its 15-year low. The outlook envisions a mild recession in the US at the end of 2023, which should hamper recovery in the Eurozone (EU is expected to grow by 0.2% vs. US of 0.4% next year),” JPM note.
  • “The baseline for 2023 looks for EUR/USD to average 0.95 in 1H, with a test towards 0.90 possible (assumes no de-escalation in geopolitics). A Fed pause is not a sufficient condition for a rebound in the EUR/USD. Trading strategy is tactical, with risks being an ongoing improvement in regional growth momentum or a potential ceasefire,” JPM adds.


EUR bears have had a hard time under parity.

eurusd chart 24 November 2022
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