Broad indices squeeze higher as sanctions on China are less than feared

Dow has best performance in 7 weeks. Second straight week of gains for the major indices

The major US stocks and see some squeeze higher into the close as sanctions on China are less than feared.  The NASDAQ led the way with a gain of 1.29%. The Dow ended lower as investors shifted back to the technology growth stocks.
The final numbers are showing
  • S&P index up 14.58 points or 0.48% at 3044.31
  • NASDAQ index rose by 120.88 points or 1.29% at 9489.87
  • Dow industrial average fell by 17.53 points or -0.07% to 25383.13.
In Europe today the story was different with most the indices closing near their session lows.
Dow has best performance in 7 weeks. Second straight week of gains for the major indices_For the trading week, the Dow industrial average led the way with a 3.71% gain in the US. The NASDAQ index lagged as earlier in the week the flow funds were into the more beaten down industrial stocks. Nevertheless the NASDAQ gained by 2.21%. The S&P index rose by 3.25%.
In Europe, the France’s CAC rose by 5.64% and the Spain’s Ibex nearly rose 6%. The UK FTSE was the under performer with a 1.02% gain.

CFTC commitments of traders. JPY longs increase vs the USD in the current week

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending May 26, 2020

  • EUR long 75K vs 72K long last week. Longs increased by 3K
  • GBP short 22K vs 19K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • JPY long 35K vs 28K long last week. Longs increased by 7K
  • CHF long 9K vs 9K long last week. Unchanged
  • AUD short 40k vs 39K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • NZD short 15K  vs 16K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • CAD short 34k vs 35K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K

Highlights for the week:

  • EUR remains the largest speculative position at 75 him K followed by the AUD at 40K. The traders are long EUR (short USDs) and short AUD (long USDs).  The JPY is the next largest position at 35K. The speculative position is long JPY (short USD).
  • There are three currencies that are long vs the USD (EUR, JPY an CHF) and 4 currencies that are short vs the USD (GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD).

All Trump’s announcements on China were rumored or reported. Market breathes a sign of relief

Nothing new here

Nothing new here
Markets shuddered early in Trump’s talk because there was a lot of sound and fury but when he got to the actual policies, there was nothing new.
It’s a series of studies and minor measures. Every one of them was rumored, leaked or reported ahead of time.

Trump: China raided our factories and gutted our industries

Trump says he will take action against China

Trump says he will take action against China
Strong comments to start, more to come. He brought Pompeo and Mnuchin, which is a hint of something big coming.
  • Chinese government has continually violated its promises to us
  • China unlawfully claimed territory in Pacific ocean
  • China’s coverup of the Wuhan virus allowed it to spread all over the world
We’re still in the preamble but the tough talk has the market worried.
  • We will be terminating our relationship with the WHO, redirect elsewhere
That’s not a factor for markets.
  • Will issue proclamation on US university research
  • Will ask for study to protect US investors (presumably from investing in Chinese stocks)
This was all rumored and isn’t a big deal.
  • Have started the process of eliminated policy exemptions that give Hong Kong special treatment
  • Directing his administration to “begin the process of eliminating policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and special treatment” under a “full range” of agreements, from extradition to trade to technology. (Congress has much of this power)
  • Will sanction directly or indirectly individuals involved in suppressing Hong Kong
All this was rumored or reported.
Stocks go positive.

Major indices in Europe close sharply lower

For the week major indices close sharply higher

The major indices are closing the day lower with the UK’s FTSE 100 leading the way to the downside:
  • German DAX, -1.6%
  • France’s CAC, -1.5%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -2.5%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -2.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.7%
For the week, the major indices closed sharply higher with the France’s CAC and Spain’s Ibex leading the way:
  • German DAX, +4.7%
  • France’s CAC, +6.13%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +6.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +5.2%

Looking at the daily chart for the German DAX, the index moved above its 100 day moving average for the 1st time since February 24 this week. That moving average currently comes in at 11559.22. The price is closing above that level trading today giving a more positive bias despite the declines on the day.. The low today in the German DAX reached 11575.74 – above that key moving average level.

Canada Q1 GDP -8.2% vs -10.0% expected

Canada first quarter GDP

Canada, GDP
  • Prior was +0.3% (unrevised)
  • -2.1% q/q drop
  • Sharpest drop since Q1 2009
  • Household spending -2.3% in Q1, worst ever
  • Exports -3.0%
  • Imports -2.8%
  • Inventories -$3.7B
  • Full report
There’s nothing surprising in this report. Q2 is going to blow away the numbers we see here, especially with so much of Canada still locked down.

Trump lambastes Twitter, says it is doing nothing about the lies and propaganda from China

Trump tweets out more criticism against Twitter

Twitter is doing nothing about all of the lies & propaganda being put out by China or the Radical Left Democrat Party. They have targeted Republicans, Conservatives & the President of the United States. Section 230 should be revoked by Congress. Until then, it will be regulated!

And so the drama continues to unfold. Once again, just be mindful of the situation here in case it creates further negative spillovers for tech stocks in general.