| Psychological Bias | Effect on Investment Behavior | Consequence |
| Overconfidence | Trade too much. Take too much risk and fail to diversify | Pay too much in commissions and taxes. Susceptible to big losses |
| Attachment | Become emotionally attached to a security and see it through rose-colored glasses | Susceptible to big losses |
| Endowment | Want to keep the securities received | Not achieving a match between your investment goals and your investments |
| Status Quo | Hold back on changing your portfolio | Failure to adjust asset allocation and begin contributing to retirement plan |
| Seeking Pride | Sell winners too soon | Lower return and higher taxes |
| Avoiding Regret | Hold losers too long | Lower return and higher taxes |
| House Money | Take too much risk after winning | Susceptible to big losses |
| Snake Bit | Take too little risk after losing | Lose chance for higher return in the long term |
| Get Even | Take too much risk trying to get break even | Susceptible to big losses |
| Social Validation | Feel that it must be good if others are investing in the security | Participate in price bubble which ultimately causes you to buy high and sell low |
| Mental Accounting | Fail to diversify | Not receiving the highest return possible for the level of risk taken |
| Cognitive Dissonance | Ignore information that conflicts with prior beliefs and decisions | Reduces your ability to evaluate and monitor your investment choices |
| Representativeness | Think things that seem similar must be alike. So a good company must be a good investment | Purchase overpriced stocks |
| Familiarity | Think companies that you know seem better and safer | Failure to diversify and put too much faith in the company in which you work |
Archives of “January 2019” month
rssTrue Fact
DON'T CONFUSE BRAINS WITH A BULL MARKET… ( 95% of Traders/Analysts …Always Think This way )
10 trading commandments
1.) Respect the price action but never defer to it.
Our eyes are valuable tools when trading, but if we deferred to the flickering ticks, stocks would be “better” up and “worse” down. That’s backward logic.
2.) Discipline trumps conviction.
No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always try to define your risk and never believe you’re smarter than the market.
3.) Opportunities are made up easier than losses.
It’s not necessary to play every day; it’s only necessary to have a high winning percentage on the trades you choose to make. Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.
4.) Emotion is the enemy when trading.
Emotional decisions have a way of coming back to haunt you. If you’re personally attached to a position, your decision-making process will be flawed. Take a deep breath before risking your hard-earned coin. See related link.
5.) Zig when others zag.
Sell hope, buy despair and take the other side of emotional disconnects. If you can’t find the sheep in the herd, chances are you’re it. (more…)
Trading Commandments
“Opportunities are made up easier than losses”: Trade-Ideas’ alerts show hundreds of opportunites from which to choose every day. Take your time and find the right ones using The Odds Maker. There is no reason to rush or force anything – every trade arms you with an informational edge.
“Emotion is the enemy when trading”: Trading is ruled by fear and greed. Those two sinners thrive on a lack of enough information or trade expectations. The Odds Maker readout collars these guys by revealing a strategy’s odds of success (%) as well as average winners and losers and net gains or losses.
“Adapt your style to the market”: It is so important to know what kind of foe you are facing. Do breakouts follow through or do they pull back? Are you in a trending or range bound market?
“Keep Your Eye on the Bigger Picture” :No matter what time frame you are trading on, it’s good to know what is happening on the daily charts. Understanding the larger trends in the markets will allow you to be more decisive about your trades in the lower time frames and will help you maintain a more clear perspective. Trading with the overall trends will increase your odds for success.
Jack Ma's Journey to Success -Alibaba
Book Review: "Warrior Trading"
Talk about stretching a metaphor beyond breaking point, this book delivers. The metaphor in question goes something like this: “The Market can be likened unto a battlefield”. No arguments there; least of all from me, I’m covered in trading scars.
But based on the above, the author concludes that if the market is a battlefield, then successful traders (such as himself it should be noted) are the new age equivalent of the ancient Samurai Warriors and Knights, carving up enemies and vanquishing any foolish dumb money who dare to get in their way. The mindless herd and the Mum n Dad investors must all be mercilessly put to the sword.
Like a modern day Elric of Melbnibone, the goal of these Warriors of Wall Street is not be the Stealer of Souls but rather the Stealer of Your Money. They ride out each day into the field to seek glory armed with their two deadly weapons (fundamental and technical analysis) plus the third ingredient – advanced mind control achieved by 20 minutes of zen meditation on a Sunday.
Quote: … “They enter the fray with a focus that inspires awe in their opponents, even as the warriors cut them down. But warriors do not celebrate their victories – they remain still and focused, ready to strike and enter a fresh battle, for they know that opportunity may arise at any moment.” 1
Quote: … “The warriors can be seen standing – perhaps exhausted, but still standing – upon the battlefield with many a slain enemy lying lifeless, or in agony, around them.” 2
I dunno folks, this is all a bit too homoerotic for my liking.
Uncertainty in Trading
You just have to deal with it. But there are times where your conviction levels go through the roof. You know damned well that should should be trading. You are comfortable with what you see. Are you taking action?There are other times where your
conviction level is low, or not there at all. There is a split second cue in the back of your brain that says “I don’t know what is going on here”. Are you listening to it and backing off? Or are you letting your conscious mind, emotions/greed etc. take over?
The probability for a successful outcome shares a positive correlation with what level your ‘conviction meter’ is. If its high, your chances of a successful outcome increase. If low, you can imagine just as poor of a result.
Listen to your level of conviction. If it is strong, act upon it. If weak or in question, don’t do anything at all. Typically, you have a short window of opportunity to decide where you stand. Take advantage of it.
"What's the news?" "That's just what I'd like to know."
7 Deadly Sins of Trading
Perfectionism: There is no perfection in trading as far as making money on every trade or having a perfect system. All you can hope to be perfect at, is following your system, rules, and trading plan. A winning trade should be measured as one in which you followed all your preset guidelines. Even the best traders only average about a 50%-60% win rate at best over long periods of time. The key is having bigger winners than losers, not being perfect. Like in baseball where a .300 hitter can get into the hall of fame. A .500 trader in the market can become wealthy if his wins outpace his losses.
Fear: Faith in your system is the only way to overcome your fear of trading. You must complete enoughback testing on your system until you know that you have a valid edge over the market in the long term. You must see opportunity in trading not possible losses. You must take your systems trade signals each time and if you can’t overcome your fear of loss and failure then perhaps trading is not the best profession for you.
Pride: We are not our trading account and staring at our profit and loss too much is a major detriment in one’s trading. Traders must cut losses at their predetermined stop, not pridefully hang on trying to prove they are right. We must separate ourselves from the trading. A person’s value is not tied to a trade or performance record. If we followed our system then we can’t view that as a personal loss. Our system failed us. (more…)