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11 Biases That Affect Traders

  
  Education
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Overconfidence
As the name suggested, it is the irrational faith in one’s skills, methodology or beliefs. For example, you see a certain chart pattern and make a maximum leveraged trade, even though you understand that any chart pattern cannot predict market with certainty. Trading excessively after a winning streak also shows overconfidence.
Cognitive Dissonance
It means finding excuses for something which makes you ‘uncomfortable’. For example, jumping from one indicator to another when you face losing trades; or continuing to trade in stock even your trading methodology does not gives you a positive expectancy. 
Availability Bias
It means being biased to information which is readily and easily available. For example, people begin to trade using RSI without understanding the internal relative strength; that is, RSI is most talked about on forums so start using them without rationally researching it. Being affected from attractive advertisement or intelligent sounding articles (including this one!) without due diligence also signifies availability bias.
Self-Attribution Bias
It means giving yourself unwarranted praise for outcomes which may just be an outcome of chance. For example, people make money in a bull market through buy and hold and start begin to believe on their trading acumen rather than the market regime which favors their trading style. (more…)

Day Trading & Poker

  
  Education
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PokerandtradingI learned how to play poker at a very young age.  You don’t just play every hand and stay through every card, because if you do, you will have a much higher probability of losing. You should play the good hands, and drop out of the poor hands, forfeiting the ante. When more of the cards are on the table and you have a very strong hand — in other words, when you feel the percentages are skewed in your favor — you raise and play that hand to the hilt.If you apply the same principles of poker strategy to trading, it increases your odds of winning significantly.
I have always tried to keep the concept of patience in mind by waiting for the right trade, just like you wait for the percentage hand in poker. If a trade doesn’t look right, you get out and take a small loss; it’s precisely equivalent to forfeiting the ante by dropping out of a poor hand in poker. On the other hand, when the percentages seem to be strongly in your favor, you should be aggressive and really try to leverage the trade similar to the way you raise on the good hands in poker.

Daniel Kahneman: The riddle of experience vs. memory -VIDEO

  
Education, Video
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Using examples from vacations to colonoscopies, Nobel laureate and founder of behavioral economics Daniel Kahneman reveals how our “experiencing selves” and our “remembering selves” perceive happiness differently. This new insight has profound implications for economics, public policy — and our own self-awareness

 

Permutations & Trading

  
  Education
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I am reading a math book now and came across a section regarding permutations. I thought it relevant in looking at various markets and the possible combinations like a ranking. If you had 10 markets for example, I was curious how many possibilities there are of those 10 when the order is noted. Turns out there are 3.6 million combinations for just those 10 markets. The formula is P(n,r) = n! / (n – r)! where N is a set of items and R a sub set of selected items. In my example both N and R are 10. Intuitively I would have guessed much lower and shows how my brain at least is not very good estimated very large numbers. Math experts please educate me if I have erred.


 

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