Archives of “January 27, 2019” day

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Bulls and Bears -Dances on our Tunes

  
Analysis, Education
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12th January Recommendation

snakecharmer1

– Trading is all about making decisions.
– Making good decisions comes with experience.
– Experience comes from making bad decisions.

Refresh Your Memory :

On 12th Janaury ,I had written to buy Fertilizer Stocks (Nag.Fert was boldly recommended to buy @ 36.

Chambal Fert/FACT /MADRAS FERT/NFL :All stocks on fire in last 6 days.

Apart from Fertilizer stocks ,We recommended PSU stocks to our Subscribers i.e Andrew Yule @ 62 on 7th Jan ,Yesterday it was 79.And many other stocks ,All blasted in last 10 sessions.

sugar25

On 12th Jan recommended to Sell Sugar Stocks

I don’t want to write anything…just check price level of Sugar stocks on 12th and of Yesterday……and think is it power of chart or Magic ?

Apart from all these recommendations ,you all might have seen Nifty Future was not able to cross 5280-5313 level and Yesterday crashed.Writing since last 1 week avoid long in Sensex Stocks.Every 2nd stock is looking weak and tired.

Just read shortly about Messages I had sent Yesterday to our Subscribers.

Updated at 7:51/20th Jan/Baroda

The Difference Between Skill and Luck

  
  Education
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Basketball comes closest to chess in terms of being the game with the most skill involved. In comparison, hockey looks more like the lottery (and don’t even ask about trading). 

The bottom line is that the law of smaller numbers allows for more variance in individual player and game outcomes in a sport like baseball or hockey – in baseball the most skilled hitter only gets up to bat a few times per game and in hockey the star players aren’t on the ice much more than a period or two out of three. Less plate appearances or ice time can mean that it is more likely that a fluke of some sort, good or bad luck, can make an impact.  This is in contrast to basketball where there are only five players at any time and the stars typically play most of the game – more playing time means a bigger sample, by extension this means less variance.

Why Traders Lose Money ?

  
  Education
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why13One of the most frustrating things a trader can experience is being dead on right about a trade, taking it, BUT.. still losing money! How can this be? This can happen in five different ways, each of the first four contain a lesson for better planning the fifth way to lose money in this list is just part of the game.

  1. You enter your trade correctly and it goes in your favor, BUT… you do not have the right exit strategy to capture your profits and they evaporate due to not having a trailing stop or waiting to long to exit to bank those profits. Sometimes winners even turn into big losers win not managed correctly. You have to have a plan to take profits while they are there.
  2. You enter the right trade BUT… at the wrong time, you either exit not allowing your trade enough time to work or you are stopped out but do not have a plan to get yourself back in the trade with the right set up. The right trade with the wrong timing pays nothing.
  3. You have the right entry and it goes in your favor BUT.. you pick the wrong stock option to express your trade. If you pick an option with a high implied volatility your trade has to overcome that vega priced into the option, after an expected earnings event that vega value will be priced out and you need the move in intrinsic value to make up that difference. With a far out in time stock option you need the price to move enough in the underlying in the time period of the option to make up the theta cost of time embedded in the option. It is crucial to understand the option pricing model to make the right option trades to express your time period and expected move. Sometimes options also do not have the liquidity in some stocks,or far out time frames, or far out of the money strikes. Getting in and out of an illiquid  option trade can be very expensive. (more…)

Trading with No Regrets

  
  Education
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Trading is really not as much of a numbers game as it is a mind game. Winning or losing in the long term will come down to whether you quit or keep going on your trading journey. Trading is not for everyone, there is no easy money in the markets. You will fight for your dollars, you will make money by doing the uncomfortable you will lose money when you think you are in a trade that just can’t lose. The emotional and mental pain will be unbearable if you do not believe in yourself and your method. If you are trading with no plan, no rules, and no system or method you will tend to be very hard on yourself for every losing trade. It was your decision that made you lose money, you will beat yourself up, and feel stupid. You will have 100% accountability for your mistake.This will not work.

What you must do is transition the accountability from yourself to your system or method. You must trade a proven methodology that will win based on the market action not your personal actions. You can not control odd out of left field events.  You can not help it if you trade a trend or a pattern and suddenly it loses. All you can do is take trades with great probabilities that match your beliefs about the market and if they are losers then you can’t blame yourself you can only cut your losses and look for the next trade that meets your parameters.

When you can shrug off a loss with no emotional or mental pain and move on to the next one you are at the next level. All you can control is your entry parameters, risk management, position size, exit, and mind set, the market determines whether you win or lose, not you.  You must have self confidence and faith in a proven method, take your trades let the market separate the winners from the losers.

Still Want to Invest With George Soros?

  
Analysis, Education
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Bummed that George Soros has closed his fund to outside investors and will no longer use his 2 and 20 from your cash to destroy America? The SEC has been thinking about your problem, and have come up with something that could be good both for your PA and for your love life.
Solution: marry George, or one of his children or nephews. If that doesn’t sound very appealing, you could also keep your eye out for any “lineal descendants (including by adoption, stepchildren, foster children, and, in some cases, by legal guardianship) of a common ancestor (who is no more than 10 generations removed from the youngest generation of family members).”

Under new SEC rules, that will let you invest with George without subjecting him to irksome regulations. On the downside, your shiftless relatives can’t co-invest, and you’re out in the cold again if you get divorced.

[T]he new rules are causing a commotion with family offices, who used to be able to serve in-laws, distant cousins and even ex-wives of the family but now can’t. …

For instance in-laws no longer count as family — which may be happy news

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