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5 Signs You’ve Matured as a Trader

  
  Education
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1) Are Self Reliant: When you stop asking other people: “What do you think of the market?” While I respect the opinions of my colleagues, I DO NOT rely on them. I prefer to do my own homework, research and analysis. I LET THE MARKET tell me if I’m right or wrong.

The ultimate goal for traders is to make confident decisions on your own and trade with complete independence. You should not have to rely on the opinions of others because you should have conviction in your OWN ideas.

2) Stop Celebrating Winners: When you stop feeling the need to pound your chest every time you make 30 cents on a stock. (It is the flip side  of not getting depressed over every loss). Recognize what you did correctly and move on to the next trade.

The great Pittsburgh Steelers coach Chuck Noll used to say, after you score a touchdown there’s no need to start dancing. Simply hand the ball to the referee, head back to the bench and “Act like you’ve been there before!”

Same thing goes for the stock market. Don’t act like you’ve never had success trading before.

3) Let the Trades Come to You:  When you stop feeling the need to trade every day and you get over the “fear of missing out.” This is the downfall of most traders.

It took me a while to shift my focus from worrying about “missing out” to playing great defense. Once I did this, I noticed an increase in my confidence level as a trader. Keep in mind, there will ALWAYS be opportunities and it’s okay if you miss a few.

4) Feel No Need to Brag: Those traders who compulsively tell everyone about every winner are over compensating for their insecurities. It is a sign of lack of confidence. When you make a good trade or a good call on the market, and you don’t feel the need to remind everyone — its because that is what is supposed to happen.

The key is to be consistent and to separate your ego from your trading. If you are doing a good job, people will notice.

5) Loss Management: When you learn to cut losses without hesitation. No one likes to lose, but cutting losses is part of the game. I have studied the best traders throughout history and they all have the same number one rule: CUT YOUR LOSSES! Learn to accept when you are wrong and move on!

John Taylor On A Schizophrenic Europe – A Must Read

  
  Education
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John Taylor’s most brilliant letter to date.

MARKET INSIGHT REPORT
Schizophrenic Europe
June 10, 2010
By John R. Taylor, Jr.
Chief Investment Officer

Managing an investment portfolio in Europe can put you on the fast track to a mental asylum. Only a playwright like Luigi Pirandello, who lived with a schizophrenic wife and wrote plays like Henry IV with its multiple levels of reality, could cope with the financial landscape in today’s Europe. Unfortunately, with the powerful political elite so committed to the EMU process, which they see as critical to the survival of the European Union, these economic distortions will only become more severe. Eventually it will either end badly, as in Henry IV with violence and death, or well, as in a crucible-like reordering and re-characterization of the European nation states. I expect to be writing about this fascinating process for the rest of my life – and I hope to live a long time.

Differences within the Eurozone are extreme. Ireland saw its nominal GDP drop by 10.2% last year, a decline similar to those experienced in the Great Depression, while the German economy recently grew at a nominal rate above 3%. An independent economist calculated that the value of the euro would have to be $0.31 to balance Greece’s international position, and the number for Spain was $0.34, while Germany could effectively compete in the international marketplace with a euro over $1.80. Despite the ECB pegging the refinancing rate at 1.00%, two-year benchmark government rates for Germany are way below that at 0.48%, but way above it at 7.91% for Greece, Ireland 3.37%, and 3.20% for Spain. Ireland has been living with annual deflation for the last 16 months, while German lawmakers are worried about inflation. These differences have become more dramatic in the past few months and most independent observers forecast that trend to continue. By any economist’s measure this is not an optimal currency zone. But the economists are not in charge, the politicians are, and these politicians have spent their entire careers following their conception of the European currency. Their reputations and the European myth depend on the survival of the euro, and those who doubt its viability are enemies who deserve to be ground into dust. There is one overarching problem that the defenders of the euro cannot overcome: in its current form, the euro’s survival is economically impossible. Prior to the Greek crisis, the market did not understand this, but now it does. And you cannot put the genie back in the bottle.

If part of the euro is worth $1.80 and another part is worth $0.31, how do you value this currency today, while it’s still in one piece? That is the crux of the matter. The uncertainty around this issue is what has caused billions of euros to flee into the security of the Swiss franc. The Swiss authorities have intervened, buying so many euros that their reserves expanded by 45% of their GDP since the start of this year. Despite that massive intervention, the Swiss franc has climbed by 10% against the euro since mid-December. There is no sign of change. As the politicians are completely in control, the schizophrenic euro could go on for years with the economic dislocations becoming more and more intense. Little explosions are likely. Certainly, the Swiss are in a terrible position (see Switzerland Surrounded Again, April 29, 2010) as the euros will keep flowing in. The Swiss franc might gain another 10%, destroying its export base, but the Swiss could change the rules to protect themselves. Although the European political elites are totally committed to the euro, the man on the street is different. The European political peace is a compromise between entrenched elites and the highly entitled masses first formulated by Bismarck over 120 years ago. The withdrawal of those entitlements in order to save the euro could easily upset this historic deal. If those in power continue to ignore the needs of the people, neither the euro nor the current political structure will survive in its current form.

A Trading Psychology- 5 Points

  
  Education
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How do you know if your trading psychology problem is really just about trading or is a sign of larger problems? Here is a quick checklist:
A) Does your problem occur outside of trading? For instance, do you have temper and self-control problems at home or in other areas of life, such as gambling or excessive spending?
B) Has your problem predated your trading? Did you have similar emotional symptoms when you were young or before you began your trading career?
C) Does your problem spill over to other areas of your life? Does it affect your feelings about yourself, your overall motivation and happiness in life, and your effectiveness in your work and social lives?
D) Does your problem affect other people? Do you feel as though others with whom you work or live are impacted adversely by your problem? Have others asked you to get help?
E) Do you have a family history of emotional problems and/or substance use problems? Have others, particularly in your immediate family, had treated or untreated emotional problems?
If you answered “yes” to two or more of the above items, consider that you may not be alone. More than 10% of the population qualifies with a diagnosable problem of anxiety, depression, or substance abuse. Tweaking your trading will be of little help if the problem has a medical or psychological root. A professional consultation if you answered “yes” to two or more checklist items might be your best money management strategy.

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