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Managing Risk

Over the years I’ve been fortunate enough to get to know thousands of market participants. Some are long-term investors others are scalping pennies per trade on thousands of shares while others manage millions of other people’s money. The interesting theme I picked up on with nearly every one of them is that they each experienced panic and uncertainty at certain times in the market. Oftentimes, this panic stems from the inability to make sense of the market, to gain control of market participation. Thoughts such as whether or not too much capital is at work or perhaps not enough or even whether or not to be in the market at all seemed to consume them.

This ambivalence can consume and debilitate even the best market participants. The uncertainty or self-doubt about market participation is common yet finding a solution is not. The greater the level of uncertainty felt the higher the odds are that risk is being misperceived. Here are some questions that I’ve asked to assess whether risk was real or perceived:

  • What are your reactions, both physical and emotional, to a losing trade? A winning trade?
  • Have you rationalized recent losses?
  • Has your out-of-market homework/research fallen behind?
  • Do you monitor your positions by dollars or percentages?
  • Have you ever not taken a trade that made sense simply because you were burned before?
  • Has the number of indicators you use to enter/manage/exit a position increased/decreased lately?
  • Do you know the Beta of your portfolio?
  • What would others say about you when asked about your risk management?

In a sense, managing risk involves managing the emotional side of trading so that the focus can be on the cognitive side of trading. As an example, if I’m concerned with the direction of the market because my traditional analysis methods are giving unclear signals then it probably doesn’t make much sense for me to participate. My biases will impact the data, whether it’s of a technical or fundamental nature, and lead to poor decisions. If I’m unable to clearly define what sectors are leading and which are lagging and, more importantly, why they are moving in the direction they are, then my risk is skewed. It’s times like these that large losses can accrue as objectivity is clouded by subjectivity.

I’ve always used sleep as a gauge to help me know if I’m in-line with real risk. If I’m able to sleep at night and wake up excited to participate in the market then I know that the odds are good I’m managing my risk. If I’m unable to get a good night’s sleep and lay awake wondering about positions I have on the odds are good that my risk management is off. Yea, I’m pretty simple.

5 Signs You’ve Matured as a Trader

1) Are Self Reliant: When you stop asking other people: “What do you think of the market?” While I respect the opinions of my colleagues, I DO NOT rely on them. I prefer to do my own homework, research and analysis. I LET THE MARKET tell me if I’m right or wrong.

The ultimate goal for traders is to make confident decisions on your own and trade with complete independence. You should not have to rely on the opinions of others because you should have conviction in your OWN ideas.

2) Stop Celebrating Winners: When you stop feeling the need to pound your chest every time you make 30 cents on a stock. (It is the flip side  of not getting depressed over every loss). Recognize what you did correctly and move on to the next trade.

The great Pittsburgh Steelers coach Chuck Noll used to say, after you score a touchdown there’s no need to start dancing. Simply hand the ball to the referee, head back to the bench and “Act like you’ve been there before!”

Same thing goes for the stock market. Don’t act like you’ve never had success trading before.

3) Let the Trades Come to You:  When you stop feeling the need to trade every day and you get over the “fear of missing out.” This is the downfall of most traders.

It took me a while to shift my focus from worrying about “missing out” to playing great defense. Once I did this, I noticed an increase in my confidence level as a trader. Keep in mind, there will ALWAYS be opportunities and it’s okay if you miss a few.

4) Feel No Need to Brag: Those traders who compulsively tell everyone about every winner are over compensating for their insecurities. It is a sign of lack of confidence. When you make a good trade or a good call on the market, and you don’t feel the need to remind everyone — its because that is what is supposed to happen.

The key is to be consistent and to separate your ego from your trading. If you are doing a good job, people will notice.

5) Loss Management: When you learn to cut losses without hesitation. No one likes to lose, but cutting losses is part of the game. I have studied the best traders throughout history and they all have the same number one rule: CUT YOUR LOSSES! Learn to accept when you are wrong and move on!

5 Signs You’ve Matured as a Trader

1) Are Self Reliant: When you stop asking other people: “What do you think of the market?” While I respect the opinions of my colleagues, I DO NOT rely on them. I prefer to do my own homework, research and analysis. I LET THE MARKET tell me if I’m right or wrong.

The ultimate goal for traders is to make confident decisions on your own and trade with complete independence. You should not have to rely on the opinions of others because you should have conviction in your OWN ideas.

2) Stop Celebrating Winners: When you stop feeling the need to pound your chest every time you make 30 cents on a stock. (It is the flip side  of not getting depressed over every loss). Recognize what you did correctly and move on to the next trade.

Same thing goes for the stock market. Don’t act like you’ve never had success trading before.

3) Let the Trades Come to You:  When you stop feeling the need to trade every day and you get over the “fear of missing out.” This is the downfall of most traders.

It took me a while to shift my focus from worrying about “missing out” to playing great defense. Once I did this, I noticed an increase in my confidence level as a trader. Keep in mind, there will ALWAYS be opportunities and it’s okay if you miss a few. (more…)