Archives of “January 22, 2019” day

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Guidelines from Richard Donchian

  
Analysis, Education

Richard Donchian Trend System

  • Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.
  • From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
  • Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.
  • Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.
  • Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.
  • Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation to the chart formation.
  • In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50 percent profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100 percent profit.
  • In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use market orders.
  • Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.
  • Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag.
  • A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue, and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse or a spirited race horse is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

 

Donchian and his Students

Richard Donchian left many students that still trade or run money management firms. A sampling of his students include: Nelson Chang, Robert Crowell, Barbara Dixon, Bruce Terry, Paul Dean and Brent Elam.
Bottom line, trading as a trend follower is a learned behavior. However, most people don’t want to think or learn about new methods. It takes discipline. But, if the students of Richard Dennis or the students of the Richard Donchian trend system don’t provide inspiration as to how important learning the right method is toward achieving success…well buy a mutual fund and shoot for 5% a year.

Dutch Bank Algo Blamed For GBP Flash Crash

  
Education, Forex
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Another rogue algo takes matters into its own binary hands. Time to institute circuit breakers for the tiny FX market, which alone celebrated Obama’s latest set of oratory delight by flash crashing all on its lonesome…

From Goldman’s Mitesh Parikh:

 
 

GBP – what just happened

To save being asked anymore times – the short answer is I honestly don’t know.. 1.5290 – 1.5168 between 7.56am and 7.57am.. unlikely it was for a fix (that would make sense if closer to 8am), and price action doesn’t suggest a mis-hit since it was ‘walked’ down over the course of the minute albeit exceptionally aggressively (not everyone executes as subtly as we do… no comments please!) We saw Dutch interbank names selling aggressively towards 1.5200 with some suggestion that their algo blew up from a few market sources, although we can’t comment on the validity of this.  Needless to say the market has corrected, cable is back above 1.5300, cross now sub 0.8430 , exactly where we started.

10 Top Trading Commandments

  
  Education
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  • Discipline trumps conviction. Don’t let your bad trades turn into investments.

  • Perception is reality in the market. Adapt your style to the market, and learn to accept the market as it is, not how you wish it was.

  • Play great defense, not great offense. Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

  • Don’t confine your thinking in terms of boundaries. Expect the extreme, and don’t miss major profit opportunities.

  • Know your companies. Hold your stock as long as it is performing properly, cut your losses fast, and don’t “hope” for a rebound.

  • Risk control is important. Always quantify your risk going into a trade.

  • Be diligent and thorough in your research. Do your homework, recap each day, and learn from your mistakes.

  • Don’t get caught in a situation in which you could lose a great deal of money for reasons you don’t understand.

  • Respect the price action, but never defer to it. When unsure, trade “in between.”

  • Emotion is the enemy when trading. Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

    • Market changes mind like a girl changes clothes

      
      Education
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    changingcloth

    The current market is unique. It has never been so volatile; therefore the danger and the opportunities have never been so plentiful. No one has ever traded in such market, so past knowledge and experience may only be a hinder to adopt faster in the new environment. No system is profitable all the time and traders with 20+ years of profitable track record are in the process of realizing that. In time of extreme changes survives the one, who is more flexible, not the stronger one.

    Conventional wisdom will bring you only losses. You have to learn to think out of the box. Conventional wisdom says that in bear markets you should be only short or neutral. In case you absolutely have to have long positions in your portfolio, you should choose among the stocks with highest relative strength – the ones that somehow managed to weather the storm. Wrong.

    Market is so volatile that it takes stops out on a regular basis, shaking out both long and short swing traders. Percentage stop losses don’t work in this environment. If you are going to survive and thrive, you need to decrease your trading horizon and the size of your trading. I remember that about a year ago, I found out that many, who were swing traders at the beginning of their careers at some point switched to day trading. I wondered why and started asking questions.

    Markets are made from people. In theory everyone could be profitable if there is a continuous flow of fresh money into the market. Recently this has not been the case. Someone has to lose. In order to be profitable you need to follow a very simple rule – to buy only what you could sell later at higher price and to sell short only what you could buy later at lower price. Like the owner of a small shop, you should not buy inventory that you personally like, but stuff that could easily be sold this season. Yes, stock traders are in the retail business and their products are called stocks. I realize how unscrupulous such way of thinking may sound and that it contradicts the initial purpose the market were created, but this is the reality.
    Initially markets were created:

    • To offer an alternative exit strategy (therefore motivation) for entrepreneurs;
    • To provide new means of cheaper financing for business’ expansion;
    • To allow ordinary citizens, who don’t have the idea, the will or the necessary capital to start their own business, with the opportunity to participate effectively in the economic growth of the country/the world.

    All those things don’t matter anymore. Markets have long turned into a speculation arena, where everyone tries to outsmart the other.

    Bull Markets vs Bear Markets

      
      Education
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    Bull Markets: Fear of missing out.
    Bear Markets: Fear of being in.

    Bull Markets: Everything I buy is going up — I’m a genius.
    Bear Markets: Everything I buy is going down — I’m an idiot.

    Bull Markets: See, fundamentals always win out.
    Bear Markets: See, technicals and sentiment rule the markets.

    Bull Markets: I knew I should have had more of my portfolio in stocks.
    Bear Markets: I knew I should have had more of my portfolio in bonds.

    Bull Markets: That guy’s been calling for a crash for years — he’s an idiot.
    Bear Markets: That guy just called the crash — he’s a genius.

    Bull Markets: I want to be a long-term buy and hold investor.
    Bear Markets: I want to be a short-term trader. (more…)

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