Now – After Reading these 10 Points :Watch BLUE CHANNELS for an hour and check off how many of these ‘red flags’ you hear…

For years I had a pet theory about how your abilities improve over time in any given vocation. My thought was that every year you work, you learn one critical aspect of the job. Over the first few years, the percentage improvement in your knowledge is quite impressive: 50% in the second year, 33% in the third, and so on as you pick up new and important insights. And while years 15-20 might offer up slower growth, you also have less competition from your more junior peers. They’ve figured out fewer points, after all.

A few examples of these critical lessons from my 20+ years analyzing stocks, markets, and the economy on both the buy side and sell side:

Rule #1: The marginal buyer and seller set prices for everything. You may have point of view on value, but the actors setting the price don’t care about your opinion. Seriously – they don’t.

Rule #2: If you don’t know what to do or say, don’t do or say anything. Boredom is investor’s greatest enemy. Thrashing around is for mosh pits and three year olds.

Rule #3: If you can’t explain your competitive advantage in three sentences, you don’t have one. That’s true for analysts, portfolio managers, company executives, startup companies, writers, etc.

Rule #4: It is OK to be wrong. Just don’t lie to yourself or anyone else about being wrong.

The second part of my imaginary rule set was that there were 20 questions that mattered to any job, so two decades of experience should get you to the end of the journey. I can tell you that, with 22 years in the business of analyzing financial assets, this part is wrong. And in keeping with Rule #4, I am fessing up. The true count is probably more like 100, which is why only vampires have a shot of figuring everything out. Zombies would have a shot, too, if it weren’t for the whole mindless existence thing.

To be fair, part of the problem of harvesting those elusive 20 – 100 points from the sea of capital markets aphorisms and rules is that there are so many false leads. At first they look useful, but like a poorly made tool they eventually shatter under heavy use. Since I am prone to list-making, I have also kept a short collection of these false gods. (more…)

Major Market Index Fails Key Test

09-Jan-19 05:09 pm

Anirudh Sethi

The blue chip Major Market Index failed to recapture a key breakdown level.

This post is about 2 weeks late, but still very pertinent in its message. We’ve written about the Major Market Index (XMI) on a couple occasions. Not widely followed, the XMI is an index of 20 of some of the largest blue chip industrial stocks in the U.S. market. While not a very broad index, it is influential, in terms of its constituents’ “name” recognition as well as their “weighty” impact on many of the averages.

The last time we posted something on the XMI was in June, taking note of a couple not-so-constructive developments on its chart. These would, of course, be a precursor to much greater weakness in the August-September decline. One of the key junctures during that period was the index’s early-August breakdown below its post-2009 UP trendline. That breakdown opened the gates to the steep losses later in the month.

Recently, amid the sharp post-September rally, the XMI returned to “kiss” the underside of the broken trendline. This was no happy reunion, however, as the result was a clear and precise rejection of price by the trendline.

(more…)

Beliefs of Unsuccessful Traders

09-Jan-19 05:04 pm

Education

Anirudh Sethi

1. I must be trading something all the time.

2. If I lose on a trade, I feel angry, frustrated, sad, or sick. If I win on a trade, I’m a happy camper.

3. If I don’t get on board with the hot tip of the day, I’ll miss out

. 4. The markets are out to get me.

5. I’m unwilling to take the stop-out, so I’m turning this trade into an investment.

6. If I just keep studying, looking, and reading, I’ll find the magical formula/indicator/guru to lead me to riches.

. Everything has to be perfect for me to get into a trade

8. If I win, I was skillful. If I lose, I was unlucky.

It’s only through daily assessment of convictions — and with radical honesty — that a trader grows, develops, and thrives. Diligent examination of beliefs and the courage to change them is an ongoing challenge that must be conquered if the trader is to move to higher levels of success.

Buddha says:

“Believe nothing just because a so-called wise person said it. Believe nothing just because a belief is generally held. Believe nothing just because it’s said in ancient books. Believe nothing just because it’s said to be of divine origin. Believe nothing just because someone else believes it.”

1+ 24 Rules For Trading Discipline

09-Jan-19 05:04 pm

Education

Anirudh Sethi

The market pays you to be disciplined.
Be disciplined every day, in every trade, and the market will reward you. But don’t claim to be disciplined if you are not 100 percent of the time.
Always lower your trade size when you’re trading poorly.
Never turn a winner into a loser.
Your biggest loser can?t exceed your biggest winner.
Develop a methodology and stick with it. don?t change methodologies from day to day.
Be yourself. Don?t try to be someone else.
You always want to be able to come back and play the next day. Once you reach the daily downside limit, you must turn your PC off and call it a day. You can always come back tomorrow.
Earn the right to trade bigger. Remember: if you are trading poorly with two lots you must lower your trade size down to a one lot.
Get out of your losers.
The first loss is the best loss.
Don?t hope and pray. If you do, you will lose.
don?t worry about news. it?s history.
Don?t speculate. if you do, you will lose. (more…)