Archives of “January 8, 2019” day

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Up 62% in 9 Months

  
Analysis, Education, US Market
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SPX-6MONTHIt has been exactly nine months since the S&P 500 bottomed on March 9th at 676.53.  Since then, the index has rallied 62%.  Below we provide a chart of the rolling 9-month change (%) for the S&P 500 going back to 1928.  As shown, 1933 was the only other time when the S&P 500 had a bigger 9-month gain.  The 9-month period ending on May 12th, 1983 is the next best behind the current one with a gain of 60%.  Also, the 9-month 62% gain was preceded by a 9-month decline of 51%.  The only time that the index fell more over a 9-month period was in 1931/32 when it dropped 68%.  It’s easy to forget how crazy things were over the last 18 months, but stats like these provide a staggering refresher.

Trading Wisdom from Richard D. Wyckoff

  
  Education
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“You can learn from this how to develop independent judgment, so that you need never ask anyone’s opinion or listen to anyone’s tips, or take anyone’s advice.  You can so train your judgment that you will know just what to do and when to do it.  When you are in doubt you will do nothing.” –Richard D. Wyckoff

Wyckoff was talking here about trading.  He was talking on the subject of studying the markets to determine how they operate.  You will find developing your own trading strategy/method can be the most rewarding and challenging experience of your lifetime.  You need to be comfortable with the risk, before you are comfortable with the reward.  There is an age old saying, ‘If you can’t stand the heat, then stay out of the kitchen.’

As traders, we are exposed on a daily basis to the trading concepts of risk and reward.  Personally, my own reward to risk tolerance took some time for me to feel comfortable with it.  How much do you want to risk on each trade, and how much are you looking to make at a minimum?

Are you at its minimum profit objective going to make more money than you risk?  So if you would take two trades, and one would win and the other would hit your stop loss, would you turn a small profit on your trading?  Obviously, the goal of every trader should be the three general trading rules. (more…)

Wise quotes from Bernard M. Baruch

  
  Education
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263-1Wise quotes from Bernard M. Baruch:
Bernard Baruch was a stock market speculator who became a millionaire by age 30 in the early 1900’s and eventually a statesman and advisor to multiple Presidents during WWI and WWII.

  • -A speculator is a man who observes the future, and acts before it occurs.
  • -If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.
  • -During my eighty-seven years I have witnessed a whole succession of technological revolutions. But none of them has done away with the need for character in the individual or the ability to think.
  • -Age is only a number, a cipher for the records. A man can’t retire his experience. He must use it. Experience achieves more with less energy and time.
  • Do not blame anybody for your mistakes and failures.
  • Every man has a right to his opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts.
  • I made my money by selling too soon.
    I never lost money by turning a profit.
  • Most of the successful people I’ve known are the ones who do more listening than talking.
  • Never pay the slightest attention to what a company president ever says about his stock.
  • Whatever failures I have known, whatever errors I have committed, whatever follies I have witnessed in private and public life have been the consequence of action without thought.

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