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JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH ON STOCK MARKET MEMORY LOSS

Where else but in the markets can short term memory loss be both beneficial and profitable?

John Kenneth Galbraith, an economist, says the financial markets are characterized by…

“…extreme brevity of the financial memory.  In consequence, financial disaster is quickly forgotten.  In further consequence, when the same or closely similar circumstances occur again, SOMETIMES IN A FEW YEARS, they are hailed by a new, often youthful, and always extremely self-confident generation as a brilliantly innovative discovery in the financial and larger economic world.  There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance.” [emphasis mine].

JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH ON STOCK MARKET MEMORY LOSS

Where else but in the markets can short term memory loss be both beneficial and profitable?

John Kenneth Galbraith, an economist, says the financial markets are characterized by…

“…extreme brevity of the financial memory.  In consequence, financial disaster is quickly forgotten.  In further consequence, when the same or closely similar circumstances occur again, SOMETIMES IN A FEW YEARS, they are hailed by a new, often youthful, and always extremely self-confident generation as a brilliantly innovative discovery in the financial and larger economic world.  There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance.” [emphasis mine].

Benjamin Graham Quotes

  • Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process. – View Quote Details on Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit…
  • Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble…to give way to hope, fear and greed. – View Quote Details on Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational…
  • You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right. – View Quote Details on You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees…
  • Warren Buffett, story from Benjamin Graham: A story that was passed down from Ben Graham illustrates the lemminglike behavior of the crowd: “Let me tell you the story of the oil prospector who met St. Peter at the Pearly Gates. When told his occupation, St. Peter said, “Oh, I’m really sorry. You seem to meet all the tests to get into heaven. But we’ve got a terrible problem. See that pen over there? That’s where we keep the oil prospectors waiting to get into heaven. And it’s filled—we haven’t got room for even one more.” The oil prospector thought for a minute and said, “Would you mind if I just said four words to those folks?” “I can’t see any harm in that,” said St. Pete. So the old-timer cupped his hands and yelled out, “Oil discovered in hell!” Immediately, the oil prospectors wrenched the lock off the door of the pen and out they flew, flapping their wings as hard as they could for the lower regions. “You know, that’s a pretty good trick,” St. Pete said. “Move in. The place is yours. You’ve got plenty of room.” The old fellow scratched his head and said, “No. If you don’t mind, I think I’ll go along with the rest of ’em. There may be some truth to that rumor after all.” – View Quote Details on Warren Buffett, story from Benjamin Graham: A story that was…

Wise quotes from Bernard M. Baruch

263-1Wise quotes from Bernard M. Baruch:
Bernard Baruch was a stock market speculator who became a millionaire by age 30 in the early 1900’s and eventually a statesman and advisor to multiple Presidents during WWI and WWII.

  • -A speculator is a man who observes the future, and acts before it occurs.
  • -If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.
  • -During my eighty-seven years I have witnessed a whole succession of technological revolutions. But none of them has done away with the need for character in the individual or the ability to think.
  • -Age is only a number, a cipher for the records. A man can’t retire his experience. He must use it. Experience achieves more with less energy and time.
  • Do not blame anybody for your mistakes and failures.
  • Every man has a right to his opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts.
  • I made my money by selling too soon.
    I never lost money by turning a profit.
  • Most of the successful people I’ve known are the ones who do more listening than talking.
  • Never pay the slightest attention to what a company president ever says about his stock.
  • Whatever failures I have known, whatever errors I have committed, whatever follies I have witnessed in private and public life have been the consequence of action without thought.

Evidence Based Trading

The late Ayn Rand emphasized that philosophy was the most practical of disciplines: it governs the ideas that lie behind all we do and think. The philosophical premises we assume affect how we approach trading.
A beautiful example of this is David Aronson’s new book, “Evidence-Based Technical Analysis”. It’s a well-written, thought-provoking text, with many practical examples of how to conduct data analysis in an objective way.
Starting with the premise that knowledge consists of statements that are found to be true, Aronson, writing in the positivist tradition of philosophy, excludes subjectivity as knowledge. He explains:
“The most important consequence of TA adopting the scientific method would be the elimination of subjective approaches. Because they are not testable, subjective methods are shielded from empirical challenge. This makes them worse than wrong. They are meaningless propositions devoid of information. Their elimination would make TA an entirely objective practice.” p. 148
This is bound to rub many traders the wrong way, but it’s an important challenge. What is knowledge? How do we know what we know in the markets? How can we demonstrate that knowledge is such, and not illusion? (more…)

Parsons’ Rules

Bob Parsons is the founder of GoDaddy.com. GoDaddy is the domain name site with those obnoxious Superbowl ads — and the company that made Parsons a billionaire.
(I guess when you’re a billionaire you can get away with an awful looking earring.)
Many years ago, I came across “Parsons’ Rules” — a list of 16 rules for success in business and life. They struck me as pretty damn good.
I was reminded of Parsons’ Rules while tinkering with another project this weekend, and realized they also apply to trading.
 
So here they are (original list here):
1. Get and stay out of your comfort zone. I believe that not much happens of any significance when we’re in our comfort zone. I hear people say, “But I’m concerned about security.” My response to that is simple: “Security is for cadavers.”
2. Never give up. Almost nothing works the first time it’s attempted. Just because what you’re doing does not seem to be working, doesn’t mean it won’t work. It just means that it might not work the way you’re doing it. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it, and you wouldn’t have an opportunity.
3. When you’re ready to quit, you’re closer than you think. There’s an old Chinese saying that I just love, and I believe it is so true. It goes like this: “The temptation to quit will be greatest just before you are about to succeed.”
4. With regard to whatever worries you, not only accept the worst thing that could happen, but make it a point to quantify what the worst thing could be. Very seldom will the worst consequence be anywhere near as bad as a cloud of “undefined consequences.” My father would tell me early on, when I was struggling and losing my shirt trying to get Parsons Technology going, “Well, Robert, if it doesn’t work, they can’t eat you.”
5. Focus on what you want to have happen. Remember that old saying, “As you think, so shall you be.”
6. Take things a day at a time. No matter how difficult your situation is, you can get through it if you don’t look too far into the future, and focus on the present moment. You can get through anything one day at a time.
7. Always be moving forward. Never stop investing. Never stop improving. Never stop doing something new. The moment you stop improving your organization, it starts to die. Make it your goal to be better each and every day, in some small way. Remember the Japanese concept of Kaizen. Small daily improvements eventually result in huge advantages. (more…)

Evidence Based Trading: Why Philosophy Matters

A beautiful example of this is David Aronson’s new book, “Evidence-Based Technical Analysis”. It’s a well-written, thought-provoking text, with many practical examples of how to conduct data analysis in an objective way.

Starting with the premise that knowledge consists of statements that are found to be true, Aronson, writing in the positivist tradition of philosophy, excludes subjectivity as knowledge. He explains:

“The most important consequence of TA adopting the scientific method would be the elimination of subjective approaches. Because they are not testable, subjective methods are shielded from empirical challenge. This makes them worse than wrong. They are meaningless propositions devoid of information. Their elimination would make TA an entirely objective practice.” p. 148

This is bound to rub many traders the wrong way, but it’s an important challenge. What is knowledge? How do we know what we know in the markets? How can we demonstrate that knowledge is such, and not illusion?

Once we start with the premise that all knowledge consists of explicit propositions that can be tested for truth, we necessarily are led toward trading that is rule-based and rigorously backtested.

Is there another, *valid* form of knowledge and trading? Can we prove that?The late Ayn Rand emphasized that philosophy was the most practical of disciplines: it governs the ideas that lie behind all we do and think. The philosophical premises we assume affect how we approach trading.