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What is the probability of…

  • A sideways market?
  • A trending market?
  • A trend continuing;
  • A trend reversal?
  • Getting stopped out of a trade?
  • Winning a trade?
  • Breaking even?
  • Losing a trade?

All questions that need to be answered if you are to have confidence in your trading system.  For it is confidence that allows you to profit from the markets.

Ridiculous notion?  Perhaps.  But true nonetheless. 

You see, despite our civilized veneer, we are still animals that react to fear, the most powerful of emotions.  And it is fear that supercedes our thoughts when we trade.

To circumvent fear, you should develop trading plans, trade according to plan, and analyze your trades in a trading journal.  As do this, you will build a database that will create statistical patterns of your trades.  This can be studied and help you to predict the outcome of future trades. (more…)

24 Mistakes done by 90% of Traders

  • EGO (thinking you are a walking think tank, not accepting and learning from you mistakes, etc.)MISTAKE-UPDATE
  • Lack of passion and entering into stock trading with unrealistic expectations about the learning time and performance, without realizing that it often takes 4-5 years to learn how it works and that even +50% annual performance in the long run is very good
  • Poor self-esteem/self-knowledge
  • Lack of focus
  • Not working hard enough and treating your stock trading as a hobby instead of a small business
  • Lack of knowledge and experience
  • Trying to imitate others instead of developing your unique stock trading philosophy that suits best to your personality
  • Listening to others instead of doing your own research
  • Lack of recordkeeping
  • Overanalyzing and overcomplicating things (Zen-like simplicity is the key)
  • Lack of flexibility to adapt to the always/quick-changing stock market
  • Lack of patience to learn stock trading properly, wait to enter into the positions and let the winners run (inpatience results in overtrading, which in turn results in high transaction costs)
  • Lack of stock trading plan that defines your goals, entry/exit points, etc.
  • Lack of risk management rules on stop losses, position sizing, leverage, diversification, etc.
  • Lack of discipline to stick to your stock trading plan and risk management rules
  • Getting emotional (fear, greed, hope, revenge, regret, bragging, getting overconfident after big wins, sheep-like crowd-following behavior, etc.) (more…)

Zen Story

enlightenmentThere is a Zen story about a poor man walking through the woods reflecting upon his many troubles.
He stopped to rest against a tree, a magical tree that would instantly grant the wishes of anyone who came in contact with it. He realized he was thirsty and wished for a drink. Instantly a cup of cool water was in his hand. Shocked, he looked at the water, he decided it was safe and drank it.
He then realized he was hungry and wished he had something to eat. A meal appeared before him. “My wishes are being granted,” he thought in disbelief.
“Well, then I wish for a beautiful home of my own,” he said out loud. The home appeared in the meadow before him. A huge smile crossed his face as he wished for servants to take care of the house. (more…)

Your Worst & Best Trade -20 Points

Your worst trade:

  1. Did you trade the actual price action or just your opinion?
  2. Were you trading with a stop loss? Did you honor your stop loss or let a small loss turn into a big one?
  3. Did you fight the trend in your time frame?
  4. Did you try to front run an actual signal before it triggered?
  5. Were you trading with a bias that made you see what you wanted to see instead of what was actually happening?
  6. Did you trade with a trading plan?
  7. Was your position size too big?
  8. Did you allow fear, greed, or ego to override your trading plan?
  9. Did you trade in a market you did not fully understand?
  10. How much did your stubbornness cost you?

Your best trade:

  1. Did you trade on a high probability setup based on a chart pattern or backtested entry signal?
  2. Did you enter with a great risk/reward ratio?
  3. Were you able to let a winning trade run as far as it would go?
  4. Did you trade on the right side of the trend for your time frame?
  5. Were you able to trail your stop to let your winner run?
  6. Did you trade in a market after doing your homework?
  7. Did you keep your opinions flexible but your trading plan firm?
  8. Did you react and trade the actual price action in your time frame?
  9. Did your discipline pay you a nice dividend?
  10. Did your small position size allow you to trade in a clear and logical manner?

Profile Of The Successful Trader

Trading is being young, imperfect, and human – not old, exacting, and scientific. It is not a set of techniques, but a commitment. You are to be an information processor. Not a swami. Not a guru. An information processor.

Participating in the markets can only develop your trading skills. You need to become a part of the markets, to know the state of the markets at any given time, and most importantly, to know yourself. You need to be patient, confident, and mentally tough.

Good traders offer no excuses, make no complaints. They live willingly with the vagaries of life and the markets.

In the early stages of your trading career, pay attention not only to whether you should buy or sell but also to how you have executed your trading ideas. You will learn more from your trades this way.

Never assume that the unreasonable or the unexpected cannot happen. It can. It does. It will.

Remember, you can learn a lot about trading from your mistakes. When you make a mistake – and you will – do not dwell on the negatives. Learn from the mistake and keep going.

Never forget that markets are made up of people. Think constantly about what others are doing, what they might do in the current circumstances, or what they might do when those circumstances change. Remember that, whenever you buy and hope to sell higher, the person you sell to will have to see the same opportunity at that higher price to be induced to buy.

Traders who lose follow one of several typical patterns. Some repeatedly suffer individual large losses that wipe out earlier gains or greatly increase a small loss. Others experience brief periods during which their trading wheels fall off: they lose discipline and control and make a series of bad trades as a result.
Wise traders make many small trades, remain involved, and constantly maintain and sharpen their feel for he market. For all of their work, they hope to receive some profit, even if it is small in terms of dollars. In addition, continual participation allows them to sense and recognize the few real opportunities when they arise. These generate large rewards that make the effort of trading truly worthwhile.

At the end of the chapter he lists specific observations that have a high enough probability of reoccurring he considers them rules:

  • If you find yourself holding a winning position, adding up your profits, and confidently projecting larger gains on the horizon, you are probably better off exiting the trade. The odds are that the trade has run its course.
  • When entering a trade with a market order and your fill is clearly better than expected, odds are it will end up being a losing trade. Good fill, bad trade. Get out!
  • If all your ‘trading buddies’ agree with your expectations regarding the next big move, it probably will not work out. If everyone’s conviction level is as strong as the consensus, do the opposite.

THE THREE PHASES OF A TRADE

The ANTICIPATION Phase:  this is where all the left hand chart reading takes place in preparation for the right hand chart battle. It’s the PROCESS that precedes the ACTION to put on a trade. A technical trader anticipates that a past price pattern will repeat again, so he identifies the pattern, locates a current one and determines a suitable match is present.  Technical analysis is nothing more than finding previous price patterns matched with current market conditions.  Traders anticipate such repetitive behavior based on human nature and seek to take advantage of it.

The ACTION phase involves hitting the BUY key based on the previous ANTICIPATION process.  Since no one can tell the future or what the right hand side of the chart will reveal, the ACTION is based on the confidence that the trader will do what is right once a trade is put on, which is to exit gracefully at a pre-determined loss line or exit humbly at a pre-determined profit target (P2), fully accepting either/or, or an OUTCOME between one or the other, depending on current market conditions. (more…)

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