Archives of “January 5, 2019” day

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Eight questions

  
  Education
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questions1. Are you willing to face your failures without recrimination?

2. Do you delude yourself with notions and rationalizations that you are limited by the nature of the marketplace or the tape?

3. Are you willing to acknowledge your successes, or are you afraid that others will be disappointed or hurt if you tell them you have succeeded?

4. Do you hold back from succeeding because of some childhood notion about not deserving to win?

5. Do you hold back in your trading because of a reluctance to let it be as good as it can be?

6. Are you held back by imagined restrictions placed on you by other obligations?

7. How much do you distort reality because of fear of the consequences?

8. How willing are you to commit 100 percent to being in the game?


Fed holds rates, maintains ‘extended period’ language

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Here’s the FOMC statement in full:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is stabilizing. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly. However, investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. (more…)

Learning from Mistakes…

  
  Education
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A Reader of our Blog had sent me the following question …

“When should a trader know when to say it is enough and I need to get out of the position. More importantly, how do you find a balance between learning from a mistake and not being weighed down by it on your next trading decision.”

Here was my advice:

* if you have “edge” in a trade, then winning or losing on a trade will be determined long before you find out the outcome (profit/loss) on the trade.

* important to focus on the process of the trade… making ONLY high quality trades

* your job as a trader is not to determine or decide how much you make or lose…that is up to the market. Your job is to put on trades with “edge.”

as far as not being weighed down by the mistakes, my suggestion is to begin a “lessons learned” spreadsheet where you document mistakes you make and the lesson you learned from it.

I also suggest you start a qualitative trading journal that way you can get the emotions out of your head and onto the paper.

this will help you move past your barriers and get some closure on them so you can be focused on the next trade.

It's not the trade, it's the battle.

  
  Education
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Too many traders believe that their last trade is a reflection of just how good of a trader they are (but they are the only ones who feel that way about themselves). This boils down to one word – expectation. If you expect to win all the time, or even the vast majority of the time, you’re setting yourself up for a lot of heartache. That frustration, though, is the very same force that will truly make your negative perception of yourself a reality. And even a good trade can be damaging if you let it warp your disciplined approach. The fact of the matter is that this is a game of odds, and should be played over a long period of time. Focus on the war – not the battle.

The Trading Mindset & Common Psychological Issues

  
  Education
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Plutchik’s Wheel of Emotions


How does someone know that they reached the trader’s mindset? Here are a few characteristics:

1. No anger whatsoever.
2. Confidence and being in control of the self
3. A sense of not forcing the markets
4. An absence of feeling victimized by the markets
5. Trading with money you can afford to risk
6. Trading using a chosen approach or system
7. Not influenced by others
8. Trading is enjoyable
9. Accepting both winning and losing trades equally
10. An open mind approach at all times
11. Equity curve grows as skills improve
12. Constantly learning on a daily basis
13. Consistently aligning trades with the market’s direction
14. Ability to focus on the present reality
15. Taking full responsibility for your actions

Developing the trader’s mindset takes time. It usually takes traders 2-5 years before they can read through the above list and honestly say that it describes themselves.

Let’s take 100 traders using the same trading system or approach. It is highly likely that no two of them will trade it exactly the same way in all aspects. Why is this? Because our mindsets, beliefs, and understandings are unique. It is no surprise that most traders fail and the reason why is because they lack the trader’s mindset. This article covers those in Stage III and IV within the 4 Stages of Learning. More importantly, it applies to those that survived Stage II.

There are two parts to fixing any psychological problems:

1. Recognizing that it exists
2. Accepting it so you can move on

In trading, this is where it’s so crucial to take responsibility for your own actions because it induces change and you can start making improvements. If you don’t recognize and accept a problem, then you won’t get anywhere!

What are some of these issues that I speak of? Here are a few along with their causes and/or effects:

1. Anger over a losing trade – Traders usually feel as if they are victims of the market. This is usually because they either 1) care too much about the trade and/or 2) have unrealistic expectations. They seek approval from the markets, something the markets cannot provide.

2. Trading too much – Traders that do this have some personal need to “conquer” the market. The sole motivation here is greed and about “getting even” with the market. It is impossible to get “even” with the market.

3. Trading the wrong size – Traders ignore or don’t recognize the risk of each trade or do not understand money management. There is no personal responsibility here.

4. PMSing after the day is over – Traders are on a wild emotional roller coaster that is fueled by a plethora of emotions ranging throughout the spectrum. Focus is taken off of the process and is placed too heavily on the money. These people are very irritable akin to the symptoms of premenstrual syndrome.

5. Using money you can’t afford to lose – Usually, a trader is pinning his/her last hopes to make money. Traders fear “losing” the “last best opportunity”. Self-discipline is quickly forgotten but the power of greed drives them, usually over a cliff.

6. Wishing, hoping, or praying – Do this in church, but leave this out of the market. Traders do not take control of their trades and cannot accept the present reality of what’s happening in the market.

7. Getting high after a huge win – These traders tie their self-worth to their success in the markets or by the value of their account. Usually, these folks have an unrealistic feeling of being “in control” of the markets. A huge loss usually sobers them up pretty quickly.

8. Adding to a losing position – Also known as doubling, tripling, quadrupling down, typically, this means that the trader does not want to admit the trade is wrong. The trader’s ego is at stake and #6 comes into effect as the trader is hoping the markets will “work in their favor”.

9. Compulsive trading – Similar to #2, except these traders have an addiction to trading and quite possibly gambling issues. They need to constantly be trading, even if there is no rational reason to do so. They are always excited whether they win or lose.

10. Afraid of “pulling the trigger” – This usually means that the trader does not have a system or approach already in place. They have not calculated risk/reward and many times, these trades are unplanned. This also comes after a string of losses. They don’t want to be “wrong again”. There is no trust from within. (more…)

Bernard Baruch: The Stock Market Is About People

  
  Education
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“What actually registers in the stock market’s fluctuations are not the events themselves, but the human reactions to these events. In short, how millions of individual men and women feel these happenings may affect their future.

Above all else, in other words, the stock market is people. It is people trying to read the future. And it is this intensely human quality that makes the stock market so dramatic an arena, in which men and women pit their conflicting judgements, their hopes and fears, strengths and weaknesses, greeds and ideals.”

Bernard Baruch

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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There’s an old joke about the investor who never used any stop losses. His friend knew his big positions were getting crushed.

Out of concern, the friend asked, “How are you sleeping?”

“Like a baby” he answered.

“Really? You aren’t nervous or upset?”

“I sleep like a baby” he repeated.

“That’s amazing. I’d never be able to sleep through the night with those types of losses.”

“Who said anything about sleeping through the night? I said I slept like a baby: I wake up every two hours, wet myself and cry for 30 minutes before falling back to sleep.”

That’s why risk management is so critical: to save you from sleeping like a baby, and in the long run to save you a lot of money.

—There’s a reason flight attendants show you where the emergency exits are before takeoff. The same thinking should apply to investors. Prudent investors have a sell strategy in place beforethey get involved with a stock. Using any of these stop strategies helps keep your emotions out of the process when an investing emergency arises.

The Secret of Discipline

  
  Education
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Discipline seems to be that elusive element in trading, the thing you just can’t seem to get no matter how hard you try. disciplineIts a willo-the-wisp that we’ve only heard rumours about. Do you jump from system to system, method to method, change your chart constantly and have a favourite indicator of the month? We roughly call this poor discipline.

However I’ve discovered that there is something more fundamental underneath this behavior, which is a lack of belief in the system you are using. You have no faith in it. If you did, all such behavior and “discipline problems” would vanish in a puff of smoke. (more…)

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