Archives of “volatility” tag

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What Trading Teaches Us About Life

  
  Education
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Trading is a crucible of life: it distills, in a matter of minutes, the basic human challenge: the need to judge, plan, and seek values under conditions of risk and uncertainty. In mastering trading, we necessarily face and master ourselves. Very few arenas of life so immediately reward self-development–and punish its absence.

So many life lessons can be culled from trading and the markets:

1) Have a firm stop-loss point for all activities: jobs, relationships, and personal involvements. Successful people are successful because they cut their losing experiences short and ride winning experiences.

2) Diversification works well in life and markets. Multiple, non-correlated sources of fulfillment make it easier to take risks in any one facet of life.

3) In life as in markets, chance truly favors those who are prepared to benefit. Failing to plan truly is planning to fail.

4) Success in trading and life comes from knowing your edge, pressing it when you have the opportunity, and sitting back when that edge is no longer present.

5) Risks and rewards are always proportional. The latter, in life as in markets, requires prudent management of the former.

6) Happiness is the profit we harvest from life. All life’s activities should be periodically reviewed for their return on investment.

7) Embrace change: With volatility comes opportunity, as well as danger.

8) All trends and cycles come to an end. Who anticipates the future, profits.

9) The worst decisions, in life and markets, come from extremes: overconfidence and a lack of confidence.

10) A formula for success in life and finance: never hold an investment that you would not be willing to purchase afresh today.

The Five Investing Essential Truths

  
  Education
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5-number

Markets are notoriously hard to read and people see only what they themselves want to see.

Bulls will find reasons why certain stocks will go higher, while at the same time, Bears will find many reasons for the same stocks to go lower.

The seldom-admitted truth is that most of the time, markets exist in some indeterminate state!

The main thing is that you cannot trust consensus and you cannot rely on the “Establishment.”

You can’t find refuge in the herd and you must resist the urge to join the crowd.

Your passion of the moment will most certainly create a disaster over the years!

On the other hand, if you do stick with the following five essential truths, you do stand a better than average chance to invest profitably:

1. Markets are unpredictable and ill-suited to forecasts.

2. Long-term fundamentals are key.

3. Investor emotion leads to volatility.

4. Valuation discipline should guide investment selection.

5. Perspective and patience are always well rewarded.

 

Perception vs Reality

  
  Education
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“It is often said by experienced investors that the equity market discounts future events. Investors who support that contention believe that if you wait for an event to occur before investing, then you would probably be too late because the investment implications would already have been priced into the particular investment.

The notion that the equity market discounts future events necessarily leads us to the conclusion that the equity  market prices stocks based on perception rather than on reality. Future events that are supposedly being discounted have not yet occurred. Therefore, stock price movements reflect investors’ changing perceptions of what will occur, but not what will certainly occur. If the market were able to discount an event with complete certainty, then we would not worry about volatility or risk.”

Emirates Palace unveils gold dispensing ATM

  
Education, Life, LINKS
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Emirates Palace has raised the luxury stakes in the Gulf even higher by unveiling an ATM that dispenses gold.

The machine, which monitors the price of gold minute-by minute, offers small bars that weight up to 10 grammes engraved with the Emirates Palace logo, as well as a variety of coins.

Thomas Giessler, the inventor of the Gold to Go machine, chose Abu Dhabi because of its luxury atmosphere, and hopes it will tie in nicely with the region’s traditional ties in gold commerce.

“A gold machine should be made of gold,” said Thomas Geissler, the chief executive of Ex Oriente Lux AG. “This is now at a hotel made out of gold. It is the perfect place.”

Six coins of differing weights come engraved with a maple leaf, kangaroo and Krugerrand, symbols of the gold-producing nations South Africa, Canada and Australia.

Emirates Palace Hotel general manager Hans Olbertz said: “We seized upon this idea and, as one of the most exclusive hotels in the world, we wanted the Emirates Palace to play a pioneering role and be the first hotel in the world to offer its guests this golden service.”

The idea is aimed at both a souvenir and an investment. Gold is still one of the most sustainable forms of investment and is currently as a record high price due to volatility in the current global economic market. (more…)

Atkeson & Houghton, Win By Not Losing-Book Review

  
  Education
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 Nicholas Atkeson and Andrew Houghton, founding partners of Delta Investment Management, have written what, in the words of the lengthy subtitle, is a disciplined approach to building and protecting your wealth in the stock market by managing your risk. Win By Not Losing (McGraw-Hill, 2013) is a mix of stories about some not-so-famous investors (in fact, a few are identified simply by their first names) and an introduction to tactical investing.

The authors contend that “stock prices are influenced by oddities in human behavior that often cause security pricing to be predictable.” (p. 120) They support their contention by sharing some of their observations from the trading floor of an investment bank. Earnings momentum, for instance, can be both predictable and profitable: “the cycle of exceeding analysts’ estimates is often predictable in light of the pressures on analysts to be overly conservative.” (p. 121) And one study found that “over the 60 trading days after an earnings announcement, a long position in stocks with unexpected earnings in the highest decile, combined with a short position in stocks in the lowest decile, yields an annualized ‘abnormal’ return of about 25 percent before transaction costs.” (p. 122) (more…)

Trading Mathematics and Trend Following

  
  Education
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Some quick points, to be making money, Profit Factor must be greater than 1.

  • Profit Factor (PF)
  • = Gross Gains / Gross Losses
  • = (Average win * number of wins) / (Average loss * number of losses)
  • = R * w / (1-w)
    • where R = Average win / Average loss
    • w = win rate, i.e. % number of winners compared to total number of trades

Re-arranging, we have

  • w = PF / (PF + R)
  • R = PF * (1 – w) / w

Sample numbers showing the minimum R required to break-even (i.e. PF = 1, assuming no transaction costs) for varying win rates.

  • w = 90% >> R = 0.11
  • w = 80% >> R = 0.25
  • w = 70% >> R = 0.43
  • w = 60% >> R = 0.67
  • w = 50% >> R = 1
  • w = 40% >> R = 1.5
  • w = 30% >> R = 2.33
  • w = 20% >> R = 4
  • w = 10% >> R = 9

The style of trading strongly influences the win rate and R (average winner / average loser). For example, (more…)

Is Your Self-Esteem Tied To Your Account Equity?

  
  Education
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Does your self-esteem rise and fall with your account equity? If so, your probably in for some difficult times ahead with you’re trading. For some traders, a trade is more than a trade, it can represent how successful they are as a person, how much status they feel, etc.  When your self-concept is closely tied to your trading outcomes the result is a yo-yo effect in terms of your self-esteem and your internal state.  And our internal state has a lot to do with how well we trade.

Trading already involves a lot of uncertainty, and tying one’s sense of self-worth to the ups and downs of trading is unnecessarily adding emotional volatility to the picture and is usually not a good idea.

Most traders need to work on being more resilient in the face of disappointment. Trading will always involve disappointments, its part of the territory.  A delicate balance between being fully engaged in the trade with a ‘watchful curiosity’ and without being overly attached to the outcome, is how many successful traders describe their internal state.

5 Keys to Dealing with Trading Fear

  
  Education
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How comfortable are you dealing with uncertainty?

As volatility and uncertainty increases, so does fear. When our emotions run high, then our decision making process suffers.

It seems like the harder we try, the worse things get.

We start reacting to things instead of being proactive. Then we feel overwhelmed.

Does this sound familiar?

One of the hardest things to deal with is uncertainly.

We have strategies for managing our risk in most aspects of our trading. However, we seldom talk about or have strategies for the most crucial element, our Personal Risk.

 

Have you noticed the panic that is going on in the markets? Do you know people who have been a contributor to it? Do you know them intimately?

How do you manage your Personal Risk? 

1. Trade With a Clear Mind

Do not make emotional decisions. Realize that emotions are emotions. What differentiates the successful traders from others is how we recalibrate our reactions to our emotions.

 

I was watching an interview with a surfer. The interviewer asked him what he does when a big surf comes and he goes underwater. The surfer said it was simple. “If I panic, I only have 3-5 seconds of air to breathe. If I stay calm, I have 45-60 seconds of air.“

What does surfing have to do with trading? If you panic and operate from a place of fear, you could lose all of your capital. However, if you take a moment and think about your strategies, you can have much better results.

2. Look at Your Portfolio Objectively

Think about your portfolio as if you are looking at the portfolio of your best friend. How would you advise him/her?

3. Limit Your Input

There are a lot of conflicting points of view. If we want to listen to all of them, it becomes very confusing, and the confused mind does not make a decision.

Instead of listening to everybody, pick the top 3 people that you respect and listen to them. This way, you can remain focused and have much better trading results.

4. Be In Tune With the Markets

Trade the markets as they are and not as you want them to be.

If we are not in tune with the markets and don’t listen to them, we are going to be in a losing game.

After all, hope is a lousy hedge.

5. Be In a Supportive Environment

It is important to listen to the people that we respect and are successful.

 

There are traders whose spouse and/or friends have little or no risk tolerance. As a result, these traders allow the fear of their spouse and/or friends to become the boundaries of their success.

Who are you choosing to surround yourself with?

Remember, not the most talented or skilled person wins the game. The game is won by the ones who can manage their Personal Risk and have a Mental Edge.

Trading Mantra's

  
  Education
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“Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. It is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student, there is always someone smarter than you!

“Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.”

Let volatility work in your favor, not against you.

Emotions can be the enemy of the trader and investor, as fear and greed play an important part of one’s decision making process.

Portfolios heavy with underperforming stocks rarely outperform the stock market!

Even the best looking chart can fall apart for no apparent reason. Thus, never fall in love with a position but instead remain vigilant in managing risk and expectations. Use volume as a confirming guidepost.

When trading, if a stock doesn’t perform as expected within a short time period, either close it out or tighten your stop-loss point.

As long as a stock is acting right and the market is “in-gear,” don’t be in a hurry to take a profit on the whole positions, scale out instead.

Never let a profitable trade turn into a loss and never let an initial trading position turn into a long-term one because it is at a loss.

It’s not the ones that you sell that go higher that matters, it’s the ones you don’t sell which go lower, that do.

Don’t think you can consistently buy at the bottom nor sell at the top. This can rarely be consistently done. (more…)

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