Archives of “volatility” tag

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Self-esteem and Trading Acccount

  
  Education
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Does your self-esteem rise and fall with your account equity? If so, your probably in for some difficult times ahead with you’re trading. For some traders, a trade is more than a trade, it can represent how successful they are as a person, how much status they feel, etc.  When your self-concept is closely tied to your trading outcomes the result is a yo-yo effect in terms of your self-esteem and your internal state.  And our internal state has a lot to do with how well we trade.

Trading already involves a lot of uncertainty, and tying one’s sense of self-worth to the ups and downs of trading is unnecessarily adding emotional volatility to the picture and is usually not a good idea.

Most traders need to work on being more resilient in the face of disappointment. Trading will always involve disappointments, its part of the territory.  A delicate balance between being fully engaged in the trade with a ‘watchful curiosity’ and without being overly attached to the outcome, is how many successful traders describe their internal state.

Eyes Wide Shut

  
  Education
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Why does it take so long for a trader to learn?

eyes wide shut

Like I’ve said before, I’ve seen as much so-called wisdom over the years that I’ve eventually learned to hold as inviolate truth, as that which should be thrown out with yesterday’s garbage. Yet why does the eventual accumulation of pertinent knowledge translate so slowly into one’s trading results? If we are capable of weeding out the good stuff from the bad, why doesn’t the good stuff just take over and guide us directly towards success?

Aside from the fact that I might just be a dumbass, one thing I’ve figured out is that the distance between the brain and the finger might not be so close as you’d think — if you’re not careful. I know I’m not the only trader who has a tendency to repeat the usual mistakes, or variations of same, despite having berated myself 10 times in the previous week to make an effort not to do it again. My contention is that old habits die hard. Real hard. And only if you go out of your way to kill them outright. (more…)

Try to Learn these things

  
Education, Life
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  1. Ancient Chinese philosophers realized that with great danger often comes great opportunity. This nexus is further reinforced by the fact that the Chinese character representing both danger and opportunity is the same. Remember that only those who possess and use the necessary skills to survive the period of great danger are in position to profit from great opportunity. Risk control is paramount.
  2. The extrinsic (time) component of the option premium goes to zero at options expiration. Always.
  3. Although statisticians would argue, the probability of occurrence of an extremely unlikely event is much greater if you “bet the farm” on the event not occurring. Never forget that black swans do exist.
  4. The human brain is not inherently logical. It evolved for survival and is prone to make erroneous assumptions and draw incorrect associations. To guard against these potentially costly errors, continuously challenge your assumptions.
  5. Absence of proof does not constitute proof of absence.
  6. Thinly traded options are usually characterized by egregious B/A spreads. You may be able to negotiate acceptable spreads to enter the trade. You will not be able to do so if you need to exit. It is usually better to stay away from these snares.
  7. Option orders executed as spreads always receive better fills than individually placed orders.
  8. Failure to consider current IV in an historic framework for the particular underlying will usually cost money.
  9. Failure to follow predicted changes in volatility prior to a known event (e.g. earnings) indicates there is some factor of which you know not. When discovered, it usually impacts your position negatively.
  10. Failure to use and understand option modeling and option modeling software puts you at a significant competitive disadvantage to other participants in the options market. The only thing more expensive than having appropriate tools is not having them.
  11. It is stunningly easy to “roll more than you can smoke”. It is usually disastrous to attempt to smoke all you rolled if you find yourself in these circumstances. This is another reason to model trades and crisply define risk.
  12. If you create multi-legged option beasts by manually entering the orders as opposed to entering from a graphical presentation, you will enter positions incorrectly and end up “upside down” and commit other similar errors more often than you thought possible. You must monitor the magnitude of extrinsic value when short options are ITM. Failure to do that and considering your trade plan in light of these developments, will result in unanticipated early assignment at the most inopportune times. Option positions can be easily adjusted to improve their structure only before they enter the ICU.
  13. Forgetting to honor time stops when holding certain varieties of option beasts can be as costly as forgetting price and/or P/L stops.
  14. Good traders know what they know; great traders also know what they don’t know. (more…)

The 7 Best Ways to Exit a Trade

  
  Education
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In trading the money is not made in the entry, it is in the exit. The art of the exit is crucial to a traders success in the markets.  Profits can disappear if you do not take them at the right time, small losses can become huge losses if you do not cut them. Small profits can become huge profits if you let them run until they truly stop.  Keeping capital tied up in a trade going nowhere and just letting it sit there can cause you to miss out on other great opportunities.

So what is a trader to do?

  1. Use stop losses, only risk 1% of your total trading capital on any one trade, when you have lost that 1%, get out. Position sizing, stop losses,  and understanding volatility is key.
  2. Enter trades right at break out points to new highs or off key price support levels or key moving average support levels. If it loses that support later and fails to retake it quickly then sell it.
  3. Buy when a stock is one ‘R’ multiple above a key support level, sell if it falls back and loses that support level. (One ‘R’ multiple = 1% of total trading capital).
  4. Use a ‘stale’ or ‘time’ stop: Set a time limit on how long you will give a  trade  to move  a certain amount, if it fails to move enough fast enough, get out.
  5. Volatility stop. The market or your stock has a big expansion in its daily price range or starts moving against you the full daily range. You either cut your position down in size or get out due to increased risk.
  6. You trail a stop loss behind your winner, when it reverses and hits that stop you sell. A trailing stop can be a moving average or a percentage you your gain.
  7. You sell your position because you have found a much better trade with a better probability of success or a bigger upside.

The key above all else is always to have a plan to get out of every trade before you get in. Before each trading day begins think about what you will do based on the price levels your open trade is at.

Emotions and Behaviors in Trading

  
  Education
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Successful trading requires the individual to have more than a certain amount of control over emotions and behaviors.
Emotions may include, but not be limited to, the following items:
1. Anger, anxiety, confusion, depression, disappointment, exhilaration, frustration, insecurity, passion, satisfaction, etc.
Behaviors may include, but not be limited to, the following items:
2. Arrogant, consistent, controlling, denial, following through, [im]patient, [ir]rational, letting go, perseverance, stubbornness, tenacity, etc.
Having control over these and other emotions and behaviors will allow for the trader to execute trades objectively, and more importantly, according to a strategic plan.

Sounds easy enough, does it not? “Execute trades objectively, and more importantly, according to a strategic plan.” Being that traders are human, it is not such an easy task to accomplish. It is not easy to be objective and diligent about sticking to a strategic plan day after day after day – especially with the constant volatility and erratic dynamics of the market tempting and enticing you at every turn to take actions that are NOT necessarily objective and NOT necessarily part of the strategic plan.

Don't Try to Predict Your Own Behavior

  
Analysis, Education
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“It’s easy to see, hard to foresee.” ~ Ben Franklin

How often have you accurately predicted your reaction to emotion-provoking events in your life?

When the stock market gets volatile as it has been in recent weeks, I am reminded of the irrelevence of risk tolerance questionnaires.  If you’ve ever sat down with an investment advisor or financial planner, you’ve likely seen or heard the questions that try to predict how you might react in various stock market scenarios. 

For example: 

“If your investment portfolio were to fall by 20% in the course of one year, how would you react?  Would you A) Do nothing, B) Wait a few months to make a decision, or C) Sell your stocks immediately?” (more…)

Why System Trading Is Ultimately Discretionary

  
  Education
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Successful system trading, in spite of the financial rewards, can be frustrating.  A quantified mechanical model will take many decisions off the table.  Yet, various issues, particularly the psychological approach to the issues, will always be in play.

Ed Seykota in the book, “Market Wizards,” writes, “Systems trading is ultimately discretionary.  The manager still has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase the trading base as a function of equity change.  These decisions are quite important, often more important than trade timing.”

It seems most sophisticated traders are aware of the fact that a system needs to be properly quantified and tested before trading. The sample size of the trades needs to be large. These traders are familiar with the terms of curve fitting and optimization. I wonder, however, how many traders continue to study the model as they trade their equity. How many understand the logic behind the entries, stops, exits, and money management techniques. How many are adjusting position size to meet expanding and contracting volatility and changes in market correlation. (more…)

Trading is a business

  
  Education
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Trading can be mastered if you concentrate your efforts on how you will react to price rather than desiring to predict it. Reacting is a business decision, predicting is an ego play.

Traders want to make money. Losses in the long run don’t matter. Forecasters (prophets) want to be right (ego). And that’s all that they are concerned about.

Don’t decide anything (ego), let the market do that job for you (business).

Like any other business you have a business plan and the financial portion of that plan is the most important.

In this business your inventory is stocks, bonds, futures or options. Like any other business you define what an acceptable loss is on an item and what is an acceptable profit for the risk undertaken. Like any other business if the item of inventory doesn’t do what you expected it to do, you put it on sale and liquidate it to raise capital to purchase inventory that will do what you want it to do. Your acceptable loss is your stop. Your money management system tells you how much that is. Your mark up is dependent upon your trading system and trading style. It doesn’t make any difference if you are a day trader or an investor. Like any business, some turn their inventory 10 times a day, some 20 times a year and some only twice a year. Your trading style and inventory volatility will tell you what your turnover rate will be.

Trading is a business and if you treat it as anything else you will be a loser.

Control in Trading

  
  Education
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New traders may get lucky for awhile and bad traders may win big in the short term but in the long term the market gives every trader exactly what they have earned. While traders can win in the long term with many different types of robust trading methods a trader with no self control will not even survive long, they will not be able to make a plan and follow it, they will let fear and greed over take their mind and end up with large losses and the belief  “trading is just too hard” but trading is not hard what is hard is self control, discipline, focus, and keeping the ego in check.

What a trader can control:

  1. Their entry.
  2. Their exit.
  3. Their trading plan.
  4. Their emotions.
  5. Their ego.
  6. Their method.
  7. Their position size.
  8. Whether to trade or not to trade.
  9. How much you are willing to risk per trade.
  10. Themselves.

What a trader can not control.

  1. Market movements.
  2. Volatility.
  3. The trend.
  4. Whip saws.
  5. Political decisions.
  6. News Headlines.
  7. Macro economics.
  8. Every other traders decisions.
  9. The future.
  10. The past.

One  key to trading is to only focus on what you can control, do not worry and stress about what you can not control, and most importantly, be able to know the difference.

10 Ways to Move From Peril to Profits

  
  Education
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  1. The first question to ask in any option trade is how much of my capital could I lose in the worst case scenario not how much can I make.
  2. Long options are tools that can be used to create asymmetric trades with a built in downside and unlimited upside.
  3. Short options should only be sold when the probabilities are deeply in your favor that they will expire worthless, also a small hedge can pay for itself in the long run.
  4. Understand that in long options you have to overcome the time priced into the premium to be profitable even if you are right on the direction of the move.
  5. Long  weekly deep-in-the-money options can be used like stock with much less out lay of capital.
  6. The reason that deeper in the money options have so little time and volatility priced in is becasue you are ensuring someones profits in that stock. That is where the risk is:intrinsic value, and that risk is on the buyer.
  7. When you buy out-of-the-money options understand that you must be right about direction, time period of move, and amount of move to make money. Also understand this is already priced in.
  8. When trading a high volatility event that price move will be priced into the option, after the event the option price will remove that volatility value and the option value will collapse. You can only make money through those events with options if the increase in intrinsic value increases enough to replace the vega value that comes out.
  9. Only trade in options with high volume so you do not lose a large amount of money on the bid/ask spread when entering and exiting trades.
  10. When used correctly options can be tools for managing risk, used incorrectly they can blow up your account. I suggest never risking more than 1% of your trading capital on any one option trade.

 

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