rss

Psychological

.PsychologicalThe goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful is psychological—the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.

The defining characteristic that separates the consistent winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mind-set—aunique set of attitudes—that allows them to remain disciplined, focused,and, above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions.

Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful.They
no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.

You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money; anything can happen, and every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience.

The trader that it’s his attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results.

Psychological

The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful is psychological—the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.

The defining characteristic that separates the consistent winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mind-set—aunique set of attitudes—that allows them to remain disciplined, focused,and, above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions.

Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful.They
no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.

You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money; anything can happen, and every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience.

The trader that it’s his attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results.

Justification Mode

“The ego is not your friend as a trader. The ego wants to be right, it wants to predict, and it wants to know secrets. The ego makes it much more difficult to trade well by avoiding the cognitive biases that hinder profits.” – Curtis M. Faith

 That quote came to mind this morning when having a conversation with a fellow trader who I think is in what I call “justification mode.”

Justification mode is when traders (or investors) find themselves having to justify poor performance on something that seems logical and which helps comfort and protect their ego without having to own up and face a big mistake.

In this trader’s case, like a lot of people it seems he went and stayed short when the market rolled over last month. Although he won’t admit it to you now, I know from our prior emails he was sucked in by the infamous “death cross” and, in spite of a strong reversal, has now refused to reverse his short (and losing) positions. In fact, his ego is so involved with this short-trade that he’s recently doubled down when the market refused to roll over even using lots of leverage to prove his point. Now he’s in a painful position of being trapped between owning up to the mistake and taking the painful loss or doing what so many tend to do – find a way simply to justify his actions and let a growing loss have the potential to wipe him out entirely.

In our conversation this morning, this trader kept talking about “the market is in a trading range” and “ready to roll over.” That’s fine and well as long as the price action confirms that view, but it hasn’t yet. As I asked him this morning, “Can you afford simply to stay wrong just to protect your ego?” He didn’t know how to respond. In fact, it became clear that he didn’t even realize that his ego was becoming such a strong influence over his entire market analysis. I suspect, as he does as well now after talking to me, that if this trader’s positions were different, for example aggressively long the market instead of short, this same trader would not be seeing a “trading range” or a market “ripe for reversal.” Instead, he would see nothing but more upside potential. This is why human traders, with human egos, are often at a significant disadvantage.

Trust me, at one point or the other, we’ve all done this. I know I have been in justification mode many times even when I didn’t even realize it until much later on. However, over time, I’ve learned to spot to tell tale signs that I’ve fallen trap to this and then have learned to take immediate corrective steps to right the ship. Moreover, as many of you also know, at all times I also trade in a way that makes sure that when I do make mistakes (which are often) that they NEVER have the potential to wipe me out. When your ego gets so involved in your trading, the potential for catastrophic losses are tremendous which is why we’ve all have to learn and know when we’ve fallen into justification mode. (more…)

Why System Trading Is Ultimately Discretionary

Successful system trading, in spite of the financial rewards, can be frustrating.  A quantified mechanical model will take many decisions off the table.  Yet, various issues, particularly the psychological approach to the issues, will always be in play.

Ed Seykota in the book, “Market Wizards,” writes, “Systems trading is ultimately discretionary.  The manager still has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase the trading base as a function of equity change.  These decisions are quite important, often more important than trade timing.”

It seems most sophisticated traders are aware of the fact that a system needs to be properly quantified and tested before trading. The sample size of the trades needs to be large. These traders are familiar with the terms of curve fitting and optimization. I wonder, however, how many traders continue to study the model as they trade their equity. How many understand the logic behind the entries, stops, exits, and money management techniques. How many are adjusting position size to meet expanding and contracting volatility and changes in market correlation. (more…)

State of Mind

The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful is psychological—the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.

The defining characteristic that separates the consistent winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mind-set—aunique set of attitudes—that allows them to remain disciplined, focused,and, above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions.

Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful.They
no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.

You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money; anything can happen, and every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience.

The trader that it’s his attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results.

Psychological

The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful is psychological—the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.
The defining characteristic that separates the consistent winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mind-set—aunique set of attitudes—that allows them to remain disciplined, focused,and, above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions.
Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful.They
no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.
You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money; anything can happen, and every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience.
The trader that it’s his attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results.

Ten Simple Facts about OIL

Oil_barrel_standard1) Oil is priced in dollars.
2) Oil trades in Dollars and Euros right now in spite of the pricing unit being dollars. OPEC has recently admitted this fact.
3) Clearly oil does not have to be priced in Euros to trade in Euros, or for that matter priced in Yen to trade in Yen. The same applies to any major currency.
4) Neither Venezuela or Iran hold any dollar reserves. To the extent that either is taking trades in dollars, there is clearly nothing forcing them to hold dollars. By extension there is nothing forcing any OPEC country to hold dollars if it doesn’t want to.
5) It takes less than a second for Forex trades to take place. 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, one can sell any currency they want and buy any other currency.
6) The above logic applies to any currency and any commodity.
7) Nothing is stopping anyone at any time anywhere from selling dollars for whatever currency they want to hold. Nor is anything stopping anyone anywhere at any time from selling any major currency for U.S. Dollars.
8) Because currency conversion is instantaneous no one has to hold U.S. dollars to buy oil, copper, gold, iron, lead, wheat, soybeans, or anything else.
9) Dollars are held (or not held) for reasons totally unrelated to pricing unit. Some of those reasons are political, some are based on sentiment, some on trade patterns and trade relationships, and some to suppress the value of local currencies to improve exports.
10) Currencies float and so do the price of oil and commodities. Pricing oil (or any other commodity) in Euros will not cause a price change in dollars. Look at gold which is simultaneously priced in everything as proof.

One Liners

1. Once, all villagers decided to pray for rain, on the day of prayer all the People gathered but only one boy came with an umbrella…THAT’S FAITH
2. When you throw a baby in the air, she laughs because she knows you will catch her…THAT’S TRUST
3. Every night we go to bed, without any assurance of being alive the next Morning but still we set the alarms in our watch to wake up…THAT’S HOPE
4. We plan big things for tomorrow in spite of zero knowledge of the future or having any certainty of uncertainties…THAT’S CONFIDENCE
 
5. We see the world suffering. We know there is every possibility of same or similar things happening to us. But still we get married??..THAT’S OVER CONFIDENCE!!

Risk Size Is Key

YOUR WINNERS CAN RUN….IF YOU LET THEM
The proponents of risk/reward ratios say that in order to be successful the trade must out produce the amount of money you have at risk by at least double or triple your risk amount but what they fail to take into consideration is that the reward side of any trade is unknown. 
WHAT YOU CONTROL
You see the only part of the trading equation that you have any control over is the risk side of the trade. The reward side of any trade is a complete mystery. Oh sure, we all have our best guesses as to where the market might go next, but in the end it’s really just a crap shoot. Sometimes we’re right and sometimes we’re wrong and if we’re honest with ourselves we will admit that we really don’t know where the market is going next. 
If we don’t really know where the market is going, namely the reward side of the trade, why would we even include it in our trade scenario never mind making it the deciding factor of whether to take a trade or not? Obvious, right? Yet in spite of this I continue to encounter traders who insist on only taking high risk/reward trades thinking that they are being smart investors by doing so. (more…)

Essentials of a Winning Psychology

winningFour fears that block a winning psychology:

  1. Fear of Loss
  2. Fear of being wrong
  3. Fear of missing out
  4. Fear of leaving money on the table.

Realize that trading is based on probabilities, as such, every trade is unique. In other words, the past does not equal the future.

Probability thinking manifest other states and beliefs:
  • Because we know that we will succeed in the long run and because we know we will protect ourselves no matter what the market does, we acquire the state of “self trust” and the state of being “carefree”.

In turn these states allow us to remain…. (more…)