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Goodfellas and trading

Karen Hill: “God forbid, what would happen if you had to go to prison? Mickey said that Jeannie’s husband…”

Henry Hill: “Do you know why Jeannie’s husband went to the can? Because he wanted to get away from her.

Let me tell you something. Nobody goes to jail unless they want to. Unless they make themselves get caught. They don’t have things organized.”

This conversation from the Goodfellas film reminds me of Ed Seykota’s famous saying, that ‘Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the stock market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money’. I don’t believe in the literal interpretation of Seykota’s comment but I find the quote serves as a reminder to question the motives behind my trades.

Overconfidence

The perfectionist may never be really convinced that a certain market setup is right to enter into a position and the overconfident trader may neglect certain signals that the setup is not worth trading on.

A trader may become overconfident after a few successful trades. It’s very hard to fight the ‘I am the market God’-emotion. Making a number of consecutive successful trades is not necessarily a sign you have figured out how the markets work, the same way a losing streak is not a sign you’re a bad trader.

After a huge success it’s tempting to trade a larger size or accept more risk. The general idea is that simply because of the huge profit in the previous trade, more size and/or risk is acceptable in the next. But when you think about it, a realized profit is part of your account now, it’s no different than money made on earlier trades, it is money you worked hard for. There can be good reasons to increase trading size or risk, but that should be part of a plan, not just an impulsive decision based on a feeling of being ‘invulnerable’.

Ask yourself, which feeling is worse: losing yesterday’s profit, or losing the profit made 10 days ago? If that feels different, the first one being less worse, then it may be wise to stop trading for a few days after a good trade. During those days, the profit will slowly change from being ‘an extra’ to being ‘part of your trading account’. In other words, you get used to it and handle it with more care.

Overconfidence can also come from a (strong) conviction that the market has to go a certain direction based on a personal opinion about the economy, politics, the FED, interest rate, unemployment numbers etc etc. This kind of confidence has been discussed before. The remedy is simple: don’t trade the news.

Trading Rules to become Great Trader

Time for another list of Trading Rules . Make it a habit to reread these trading rules  every now and then.
TRADINGRULES-1
1. Buying a weak stock is like betting on a slow horse. It is retarded.
2. Stocks are only cheap if they are going higher after you buy them.
3. Never trust a person more than the market. People lie, the market does not.
4. Controlling losers is a must; let your winners run out of control.
5. Simplicity in trading demonstrates wisdom. Complexity is the sign of inexperience.
6. Have loyalty to your family, your dog, your team. Have no loyalty to your stocks.
7. Emotional traders want to give the disciplined their money.
8. Trends have counter trends to shake the weak hands out of the market. (more…)

THE GOLDEN RULE

aathegoldenrule

10% of your trades will account for 90% of your profits

1 or 2 months will account for most of your annual profits

1 or 2 days will account for most of your monthly profits

Good investors and traders know that very well. They are ready to press extra hard when realize that they might have a home run in play. They are ready to disappear in 60 seconds when things don’t go as planned.

Trading Slogans

Statistic makes the money.
I just control the risk.
————————————
I control my risk.
The market controls my win.
I just go with the market.
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THINK – Control your risk !!!
—————————–
MAKE MONEY
1. Setups
2. Statistic
3. Risk managment
4. Disciplin
5. Setup Training
6. Learn Rulebook, every day
WORK HARD !!! DAY for DAY !!!
———————————-
LAZY TRADERS LOSE !!!
THEY JUST LOSE !!!
I HATE LAZY PEOPLE !!!
I AM A WORKAHOLIC AND I LOVE IT !!!
BECAUSE ITS ME WHO MAKES MILLIONS, EASY !!!
———————————-
SETUP TRAINING,
makes my money !!!
Do it every day !!!
——————————— (more…)

Only You Can Control Your Trades

Just to be very clear, the term be in control does not mean controlling the market. In fact, I have not met anyone who can control the market. From all the traders that I’ve spoken to and the books that I’ve read, all professional traders tell the same thing –

Take control of your trades and let the market do what it does best.”

Can you see the attitude that professional traders carry with them? Professional traders take control of what is within their control and focus on making those controls work. In actual fact, they even expect the market to be random. They put so much effort in making the trade perfect that it doesn’t bother them when the market doesn’t go their way.

Now, let’s come back to our world. If the professionals take full control of their trades, don’t you think you should be doing the same thing? If you know that you should be in control of your trades, then, can the market be at fault in any way? I hope the answer is no and I hope you realised that you are in control of your trades and not the market.

Risk Size Is Key

YOUR WINNERS CAN RUN….IF YOU LET THEM
The proponents of risk/reward ratios say that in order to be successful the trade must out produce the amount of money you have at risk by at least double or triple your risk amount but what they fail to take into consideration is that the reward side of any trade is unknown. 
WHAT YOU CONTROL
You see the only part of the trading equation that you have any control over is the risk side of the trade. The reward side of any trade is a complete mystery. Oh sure, we all have our best guesses as to where the market might go next, but in the end it’s really just a crap shoot. Sometimes we’re right and sometimes we’re wrong and if we’re honest with ourselves we will admit that we really don’t know where the market is going next. 
If we don’t really know where the market is going, namely the reward side of the trade, why would we even include it in our trade scenario never mind making it the deciding factor of whether to take a trade or not? Obvious, right? Yet in spite of this I continue to encounter traders who insist on only taking high risk/reward trades thinking that they are being smart investors by doing so. (more…)

Opinion no value at all

The market does not care about your opinion and what you think it ought to do.  The market cannot be tamed, placed in a box, or coerced into your way of thinking.  The market does not care about your technical analysis based on past history not does it care about your projections for the future.  The market does not care about this edge or that one.  The market does not care about what I think, about what the most popular flavor of the month guru thinks, or what the latest ANALyst on Blue Channel thinks.  The market does not care about your dreams, goals, and aspirations no matter how well grounded and planned.  The market does not care about the latest economic news.  The market only cares about the present. Remember this the next time you get into a trade believing, hoping, and praying that it HAS TO WORK.  The market does not care if it hurts you, so if you choose to believe, instead of see, what is right there in front of you, then that which you fear the most will come to be. I am not alone when I say this.

“Professional traders make good risk/reward trades and are not concerned with the outcome.   Nor are they under the delusion that they really know where a stock or the market is headed.  Those who will be pushing paper around at some dead end job in the near future are new traders who trade seeking to fulfill some narcissist need to be correct.    Or smarter than the market.  Or your trading neighbor.  Or a friend.  Get over yourself. You have no idea where the market or stocks are really going in six months. All there is are favorable risk/reward trades to make with the outcome uncertain and controlling your risk paramount.”

“This is one of the paradoxes of trading and investing: you need distinct views to put your money at risk, and you need to persist with these views in order to ride winners. At the same time, you can’t become married to these views; you need to quickly revise and even abandon your outlooks in order to limit losses. We can trade and invest for ego needs, and we can trade and invest to make money: over the long haul, we can’t do both. It takes a strong ego to formulate and act upon one’s ideas; an even stronger one to step back from those ideas in the face of non-confirmation.”

Most people, let’s face it, must be right. They live to have other people know they’re right. They don’t even want success. They don’t even want to win. They don’t want money. They just want to be right. The winners, on the other hand, just want to win.”

“Life happens when you’re making other plans. This is true and no matter how much we visualize future success, set goals and create plans for achieving them, there will be things that happen over the course of the coming year beyond your control that will impede, slow, stop or even reverse your progress. This is to be expected and, if at all possible, planned for. Frequently the difference between success and failure is being able to accept those challenges head on as they occur and keep working toward your goals even when you experience complete failure and hardship. Anyone who has achieved anything worthwhile has failed in doing so, if not many times. But, that’s part of how we grow and get better.”

The less I cared about whether or not I was wrong, the clearer things became, making it much easier to move in and out of positions, cutting my losses shot to make myself mentally available to take the next opportunity.”

If you enter a trade and the stock doesn’t go the way you predicted, go ahead and take that loss immediately. Don’t sit their like a twit and try to justify a bad trade as you lose more money, dump it. Move on. Forget the need to be right.”

“In reality, the market puts us in a contest with ourselves.  Until we let go of the false ideas of what makes the market tick and simply respond as the market unfolds, we will continue to be punished.”

The degree by which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader.

Quick thought on being an extreme contrarian

It makes it hard to make successful, opinion based trades.

You enter a trade on the basis that everyone is wrong, accepting scope for the crowd to get it even more wrong before waking up to reality. When the crowd does eventually realise the error of it’s ways, the price turns in your favour. However, it is extremely difficult to hold on to the trade and enjoy ‘being right’, because the crowd is always wrong, and if it is now moving in your favour, then you are also wrong, an equal fool.

This unhealthy skepticism leads to early culling of winners and ensures that one’s portfolio spend most of it’s time holding on to losing positions.

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