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Methods Employed By Exceptional Players

1. FIRST THINGS FIRST
First, be sure that you really want to trade. As both Krausz and Faulkner confirmed,
based on their experience in working with traders, it is common for people who think they want to trade to discover that they really don’t.

2. EXAMINE YOUR MOTIVES
Think about why you really want to trade. If you want to trade for the excitement, you might be better off riding a roller coaster or taking up hang gliding. In my own case, I found that the underlying motive for trading was serenity or peace of mind-hardly the emotional state typi-cal of trading. Another personal motive for trading was that I loved puzzle solving-and the markets provided the ultimate puzzle. How-ever, while I enjoyed the cerebral aspects of market analysis, I didn’t particularly like the visceral characteristics of trading itself. The con-trast between my motives and the activity resulted in very obvious con-flicts. You need to examine your own motives very carefully for any such conflicts. The market is a stem master. You need to do almost everything right to win. If parts of you are pulling in opposite direc-tions, the game is lost before you start.

How did I resolve my own conflict? I decided to focus completely on mechanical trading approaches in order to eliminate the emotionality in trading. Equally important, focusing on the design of mechanical systems directed my energies to the part of trading I did enjoy-the puzzle-solving aspects. Although I had devoted some energy to mechanical systems for these reasons for a number of years, I eventu-ally came to the realization that I wanted to move in this direction exclusively. (This is not intended as an advocacy for mechanical sys-tems over human-decision-oriented approaches. I am only providing a personal example. The appropriate answer for another trader could well be very different.)

3. MATCH THE TRADING METHOD TO YOUR PERSONALITY
It is critical to choose a method that is consistent with your own person-ality and comfort level. If you can’t stand to give back significant prof-its, then a long-term trend-following approach-even a very good one-will be a disaster, because you will never be able to follow it. If you don’t want to watch the quote screen all day (or can’t), don’t try a day-trading method. If you can’t stand the emotional strain of making trading decisions, then try to develop a mechanical system for trading the markets. The approach you use must be right for you; it must feel comfortable. The importance of this cannot be overemphasized. Remember Randy McKay’s assertion:

“Virtually every successful trader I know ultimately ended up with a trading style suited to his per-sonality.” Incidentally, the mismatch of trading style and personality is one of the key reasons why purchased trading systems rarely make profits for those who buy them, even if the system is a good one. While the odds of getting a winning system are small-certainly less than 50/50-the odds of getting a system that fits your personality are smaller still. I’U leave it to your imagination to decide on the odds of buying a prof-itable/moderate risk system and using it effectively.

4. IT IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY TO HAVE AN EDGE
You can’t win without an edge, even with the world’s greatest discipline and money management skills. If you could, then it would be possible to win at roulette (over the long run) using perfect discipline and risk con-trol. Of course, that is an impossible task because of the laws of probabil-ity. If you don’t have an edge, all that money management and discipline will do for you is to guarantee that you will gradually bleed to death. Inci-dentally, if you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one.

5. DERIVE A METHOD
To have an edge, you must have a method. The type of method is irrele-vant. Some of the supertraders are pure fundamentalists; some are pure technicians; and some are hybrids. Even within each group, there are tremendous variations. For example, within the group of technicians, there are tape readers (or their modem-day equivalent-screen watch-ers), chartists, mechanical system traders, EIliott Wave analysts, Gann analysts, and so on. The type of method is not important, but having one is critical-and, of course, the method must have an edge.

6. DEVELOPING A METHOD IS HARD WORK
Shortcuts rarely lead to trading success. Developing your own approach requires research, observation, and thought. Expect the process to take lots of time and hard work. Expect many dead ends and multiple fail-ures before you find a successful trading approach that is right for you. Remember that you are playing against tens of thousands of profession-als. Why should you be any better? If it were that easy, there would be a lot more millionaire traders.

7. SKILL VERSUS HARD WORK
Is trading success dependent on innate skills? Or is hard work suffi-cient? There is no question in my mmd that many of the supertraders have a special talent for trading. Marathon running provides an appro-priate analogy. Virtually anyone can run a marathon, given sufficient commitment and hard work. Yet, regardless of the effort and desire, only a small fraction of the population will ever be able to run a 2:12 marathon. Similarly, anyone can learn to play a musical instrument. But again, regardless of work and dedication, only a handful of individuals possess the natural talent to become concert soloists. The general rule is that exceptional performance requires both natural talent and hard work to realize its potential. If the innate skill is lacking, hard work may pro-vide proficiency, but not excellence.
In my opinion, the same principles apply to trading. Virtually any-one can become a net profitable trader, but only a few have the inborn talent to become supertraders. For this reason, it may be possible to teach trading success, but only up to a point. Be realistic in your goals.

8. GOOD TRADING SHOULD BE EFFORTLESS
Wait a minute. Didn’t I just list hard work as an ingredient to successful trading? How can good trading require hard work and yet be effortless?
There is no contradiction. Hard work refers to the preparatory pro-cess-the research and observation necessary to become a good trader-not to the trading itself. In this respect, hard work is associated with such qualities as vision, creativity, persistence, drive, desire, and commitment. Hard work certainly does not mean that the process of trading itself should be filled with exertion. It certainly does not imply struggling with or fighting against the markets. On the contrary, the more effortless and natural the trading process, the better the chances for success. As the anonymous trader in Zen and the Art of Trading put it, “In trading, just as in archery, whenever there is effort, force, strain-ing, struggling, or trying, it’s wrong. You’re out of sync; you’re out of harmony with the market. The perfect trade is one that requires no effort.”

Visualize a world-class distance runner, clicking off mile after mile at a five-minute pace. Now picture an out-of-shape, 250-pound couch potato trying to run a mile at a ten-minute pace. The professional run-ner glides along gracefully-almost effortlessly-despite the long dis-tance and fast pace. The out-of-shape runner, however, is likely to struggle, huffing and puffing like a Yugo going up a 1 percent grade. Who is putting in more work and effort? Who is more successful? Of course, the world-class runner puts in his hard work during training, and this prior effort and commitment are essential to his success. (more…)

42 Ways To Trade Like A Market Wizard

What if you could read the principles for success for some of the world’s greatest traders? Well you can, here is how author Jack Schwager summed up the the similarities of the ‘Market Wizards’ he spent years interviewing in his second book.

The following is a summarized excerpt from Jack D Schwager’s book, The New Market Wizards. I highly recommend this book for all active traders.

  1. First Things First
    You sure you really want to trade ? It is common for people who think they want to trade to discover that they really don’t.
  2. Examine Your Motives
    Why do you really want to trade ? Did you say excitement ? Then don’t waste your money in market, you might be better off riding a roller coaster or taking up hand gliding.
    The market is a stern master. You need to do almost everything right to win. If parts of you are pulling in opposite directions, the game is lost before you start.
  3. Match The Trading Method To Your Personality
    It is critical to choose a method that is consistent with your your own personality and conflict level.
  4. It Is Absolutely Necessary To Have An Edge
    You cant win without an edge, even with the world’s greatest discipline and money management skills. If you don’t have an edge, all that money management and discipline will do for you is to guarantee that you will gradually bleed to death. Incidentally, if you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one.
  5. Derive A Method
    To have an edge, you must have a method. The type of method is not important, but having one is critical-and, of course, the method must have an edge.
  6. Developing A Method Is Hard Work (more…)

Don't Get Trapped

1) Anchoring trap. The mind gives a disproportionate amount of weight to the first information received on a topic. Keeping an open mind and avoiding premature conclusions is a way to avoid this trap.

2) Status quo trap. Forecasts tend to perpetuate recent observations. If inflation has been high, it is expected to remain high. It is a psychological risk to assume something different. The authors suggest rational analysis within decision-making to avoid falling into this trap.

3) Confirming evidence trap. Individuals give greater weight to information that supports an existing point of view. Being honest to oneself about one’s motives, examining all evidence with equal rigor, and enlisting independent-minded people to argue against you are ways of mitigating this bias.

4) Overconfidence trap. Individuals overestimate the accuracy of their forecasts. Widening the range of expected possible outcomes is one way to mitigate this tendency.

5) Prudence trap. There is a tendency to temper forecasts that appear extreme. If a forecast turns out to be extreme and then wrong, it could be damaging to one’s career. Therefore, sticking to the herd is safer. The authors again suggest widening the range of expected possible forecasts to avoid falling into this trap.

6) Recallability trap. Individuals are overly influenced by events that have left a strong impression on a person’s memory. These events tend to be catastrophic or dramatic. To avoid falling into this trap, individuals should ground their conclusions in objective data rather than emotion or memories.

Book Review: Market Indicators

MARKETINDICATORS

Every one one us has limited bandwidth for analysis of data. We pick and choose a few ideas that seem to work for us, and then stick with them. That is often best, because good investors settle into investment methods that are consistent with their character. But every now and then it is good to open things up and try to see whether the investment methods can be improved.

For those that use market indicators, this is the sort of book that will make one say, “What if? What if I combine this market indicator with what I am doing now in my investing?” In most cases, the answer will be “Um, that doesn’t seem to fit.” But one good idea can pay for a book and then some. All investment strategies have weaknesses, but often the weaknesses of one method can be complemented by another. My favorite example is that as a value investor, I am almost always early. I buy and sell too soon, and leave profits on the table. Adding a momentum overlay can aid the value investor by delaying purchases of seemingly cheap stocks when the price is falling rapidly, and delaying sales of seemingly cheap stocks when the price is rising rapidly.

Looking outside your current circle of competence (more…)

Does Your Financial Guru or Doomster Resemble A Cult?

Does your financial Guru or Doomster resemble a cult? To satisfy your curiosity, it might be worth taking  simple test that will give you an idea whether what you thought was innocent objective altruistic financial advice and unbiased analysis is actually something more nefarious that wants to control your mind, your trades, and empty your bank account.

 1. Does your Guru always make out like he’s right?

2. Does you Guru paint a picture that the other [non-disciples] are always wrong?

3. Is there any exit from the Guru’s philosophy without following the philosophy?

4. Does the Guru’s group use its own “Cult-speak”?

5. Does “group-think” dominate, suppressing dissent and enforcing conformity of thinking?

6. Is Guru’s advice irrational at times, contradicting previous or other tenets of Guru advice?

7. Does Guru’s philosophy suppress disbelief?

8. Does Guru’s philosophy denigrate competing ideas, schools of thought, and other Guru’s?

9. Does Guru make personal attacks upon critics?

10. Does Guru believe non-followers need “fixing”?

11. Does Guru insist that his interpretation is the only correct way? (more…)

Goodfellas and trading

Karen Hill: “God forbid, what would happen if you had to go to prison? Mickey said that Jeannie’s husband…”

Henry Hill: “Do you know why Jeannie’s husband went to the can? Because he wanted to get away from her.

Let me tell you something. Nobody goes to jail unless they want to. Unless they make themselves get caught. They don’t have things organized.”

This conversation from the Goodfellas film reminds me of Ed Seykota’s famous saying, that ‘Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the stock market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money’. I don’t believe in the literal interpretation of Seykota’s comment but I find the quote serves as a reminder to question the motives behind my trades.