Archives of “risk management” tag

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Ten Ingredients to become A Great Trader

  
  Education
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It is all a game of risk management, mind, and a robust system. Everything else is just noise. 

  1. Passion for trading, only passion can fuel the work ethic needed to do the hard work that leads to success.
  2. Goal oriented traders succeed, if you know why you are trading and where it leads you may just get there.
  3. Perseverance: It is hard to lose if you never quit.
  4. Resiliency: The ability to come back from losses may be the secret to trading success.
  5. Back testing systems and methods before trading them speeds up the learning curve and side steps a lot of learning through real losses. (more…)

5 Quotes From Market Wizard Steve Clark

  
  Education
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I was so inexperienced that I didn’t have the fear – the fear that cripples people who have been in the business too long. I have seen that so many times. Very few people maintain their ability to take risk throughout their career. Most don’t Most can’t. They have had too many bad things happen to them, too many fat tails, and it damages people – Steve Clark

What Clark is talking about here sounds like the opposite of beginner’s luck. I have seen a number of examples of this in the business world. People who work their whole lives to build something by taking risks suddenly don’t want to take risks anymore. They realize at some point that they now have things that they are no longer willing to lose. They have too much experience watching others fail.

It was a terrible shock to me ego. I began to doubt my ability. It was a very depressing time. It lasted for several months. I’ve seen this happen to many traders, and I have gone through it sever times myself. When you find that you can’t make any money, smaller and smaller losses take on greater and greater emotional significance, and you lose all perspective. – Steve Clark

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Trading Wisdom from Market Wizards

  
  Education
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Michael Marcus

“The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that hte fundamentals suggest. Third, when news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone. For example, a bull market should shrug off bearish news. If you can restrict your activity to only those types of trades, you have to make money, in any market, under any circumstances.”

“I think to be in the upper echelon of successful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It’s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn.”

“Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.”

Bruce Kovner

“The more a price pattern is observed by speculators, the more prone you are to have false signals. The more a market is the product of nonspeculative activity, the greater the significance of technical breakouts.”

On asking which is better, technical analysis or fundamental analysis, he answered, “That is like asking a doctor whether he would prefer treating a patient with diagnostics or with a chart monitoring his condition. You need both. But, if anything, the fundamentals are more important now. In the 1970s, it was a lot easier to make money using technical anaylsis alone. There were far fewer false breakouts. Nowadays, everybody is a chartist, and there are a huge number of technical trading systems. I think that change has made it much harder for the technical trader.”

Advice to novice traders: “First, I would say that risk management is the most important thing to be well understood. Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice. Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least half.” “They personalize the market. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Whenever a trader says, “I wish,” or “I hope,” he is engaging in a destructive way of thinking because it takes attention away from the diagnostic process.”

Richard Dennis

“when you start, you ought to be as bad a trader as you are ever going to be.”

“I always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80 percent as good as what we taught people. What they couldn’t do is give them the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.”

“my research on individual stocks shows that price fluctuations are closer to random than they are in commodities. Demonstrably, commodities are trending and, arguably, stocks are random.”

“There will come a day when easily discovered and lightly conceived trend-following systems no longer work. It is going to be harder to develop good systems.”

“The secret is being as short term or as long term as you can stand, depending on your trading style. It is the imtermediate term that picks up the vast majority of trend followers. The best strategy is to avoid the middle like the plague.” (more…)

The Zen of Trading

  
  Education
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This is the “Zen of Trading;” It is more than an overview — it’s an investment philosophy that can help you develop an investing framework of your own.

1. Have a Comprehensive Plan: Whether you are an investor or active trader, you must have a plan. Too many investors have no strategy at all — they merely react to each twitch of the market on the fly. If you fail to plan, goes the saying, then you plan to fail.
Consider how Roger Clemens approaches a game. He studies his opponent, constructs his game plan and goes to work.

Investors should write up a business plan, as if they were asking a Venture Capitalist for start-up money; just because you are the angel investor doesn’t mean you should skip the planning stages.

2. Expect to Be Wrong: We’ve discussed this previously, but it is such a key aspect of successful investing that it bears repeating. You will be wrong, you will be wrong often and, occasionally, you will be spectacularly wrong.
Michael Jordan has a fabulous perspective on the subject: “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”

Jordan was the greatest ball player of all time, and not only because of his superb physical skills: He understood the nature and importance of failure, and placed it appropriately within a larger framework of the game.

The best investors have no ego tied up in a trade. Those who refuse to recognize the simple truism of “being wrong often” end up giving away unacceptable amounts of capital. Stubborn pride and lack of risk management allow egotists to stay in stocks down 30%, 40% or 50% — or worse.

 

3. Predetermine Stops Before Opening Any Position: Sign a “prenuptial agreement” with every stock you participate in: When it hits some point you have determined before you purchased it, that’s it, you’re out, end of story. Once you have come to understand that you will be frequently wrong, it becomes much easier to use stop-losses and sell targets.
This is true regardless of your methodology: It may be below support or beneath a moving average, or perhaps you prefer a specific percentage amount. Some people use the prior month’s low. But whatever your stop-loss method is, stick to it religiously. Why? The prenup means you are making the exit decision before you are in a trade — while you are still neutral and objective.

4. Follow Discipline Religiously: The greatest rules in the world are worthless if you do not have the personal discipline to see them through. I can recall every single time I broke a trading rule of my own, and it invariably cost me money.
RealMoney’s Chartman, Gary B. Smith, slavishly follows his discipline, and he notes that every time some hedge fund — chock full of Nobel Laureates and Ivy League whiz kids — blows up, the mea culpa is the same: If only we hadn’t overrode the system.

In Jack Schwager’s seminal book Market Wizards, the single most important theme repeated by each of the wizards was the importance of discipline. (more…)

Ed Seykota On Trading

  
  Education
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“Pyramiding instructions appear on dollar bills. Add smaller and smaller amounts on the way up. Keep your eye open at the top.”

“It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right. Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your prolem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.”

“Here’s the essence of risk management: Risk no more than you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful. If there is no such amount, don’t play.”

“To avoid whipsaw losses, stop trading.”

Every Trader Must Read These 10 Points -Take Print Out

  
  Education
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  1. An entry does not determine profitability it only determines potential profit the exit is where the win or loss occurs, focus on that.
  2. A robust trading system means nothing unless you can follow it with discipline and self control.
  3. Charts don’t care about any one persons opinions why should you?
  4. Good trading will make you some money but only good risk management will allow you to keep the money.
  5. Good traders search for the right entries, great traders search for the right systems.
  6. Bad traders have an opinion, good traders have a plan.
  7. In the markets money flows continually from those you do not really know how to trade to those who do.
  8. Eventually those with the best risk management and trading method end up with the money from those who only have a good  trading method.
  9. Bad traders tend to be stressed and emotional, good traders tend to be more quiet and at ease.
  10. Show me a trader overly focused on just one trade and I will show you the 90% that are unprofitable, show me a trader focused on the whole process of trading with little concern over any one trade and I will show you a member of the 10% that are profitable.

Five Qualities For Successful Trader

  
  Education
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  1. Capacity for Prudent Risk-taking.The young successful trader is not afraid to go after markets aggressively when the opportunity presents itself.
  2. Capacity for Rule Governance. The young successful trader has the self-control to follow rules in the heat of battle, such as rules of position sizing and risk management.
  3. Capacity for Sustained Effort.The trader uses productive time to do research, preparation, work on himself, outside of market hours.
  4. Capacity for Emotional Resilience. All young traders will lose money early in their development and experience multiple frustrations. The successful ones will not lose self-confidence and motivation in the face of loss and frustrations.
  5. Capacity for Sound reasoning. The successful young trader exhibits an ability to synthesize data and generate market and trading scenarios.

Weekend -Trading Quotes

  
  Education
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Trading Journal

“Show me a trader with good records, and I’ll show you a good trader.”

– Dr. Alexander Elder


“The fruits of your trading or investment success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions. You cannot wisely read a book on ‘ how to keep fit’ and leave the physical exercise to another. “

– Jesse Livermore


Risk Management

“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”

– Warren Buffet

 

Money Management

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

– George Soros


“If you have an approach that makes money, then money management can make the difference between success and failure… … I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I’ll be around to play tomorrow. Risk control is essential. “

– Monroe Trout


“Every winner needs to master three essential components of trading; a sound individual psychology, a logical trading system and good money management. These essentials are like three legs of a stool – remove one and the stool will fall, together with the person who sits on it. Losers try to build a stool with only one leg, or two at the most. They usually focus exclusively on trading systems. Your trades must be based on clearly defined rules. You have to analyze your feelings as you trade, to make sure that your decisions are intellectually sound. You have to structure your money management so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game.”

– Dr. Alexander Elder


“The most important advice is to never let a loser get out of hand. You want to be sure that you can be wrong twenty or thirty times in a row and still have money in your account. When I trade, I’ll risk perhaps 5 to 10 percent of the money in my account. If I lose on that trade, no matter how strongly I feel, on my next trade I’ll risk no more than about 4 percent of my account. If I lose again, I’ll drop the trading size down to about 2 percent. I’ll keep on reducing my trading size as long as I’m losing. I’ve gone from trading as many as three thousand contracts per trade to as few as ten. “

– Randy McKay


“All traders make mistakes, great traders, however, limit the damage.”

– Unknown


“My trading style blends both the risk-oriented and conservative personality of my personality. I take the risk-oriented part of my personality and put it where it belongs to : trading. And, I take the conservative part of my personality and put it where it belongs to money management. My money management techniques are extremely conservative. I never risk anything approaching the total amount of money in my account, let alone my total funds. “

– Randy McKay


“I’m more concerned about controlling the downside. Learn to take the losses. The most important thing about making money is not to let your losses get out of hand. “

– Marty Schwartz


“I’m always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have.”

– Paul Tudor Jones (more…)

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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There’s an old joke about the investor who never used any stop losses. His friend knew his big positions were getting crushed.

Out of concern, the friend asked, “How are you sleeping?”

“Like a baby” he answered.

“Really? You aren’t nervous or upset?”

“I sleep like a baby” he repeated.

“That’s amazing. I’d never be able to sleep through the night with those types of losses.”

“Who said anything about sleeping through the night? I said I slept like a baby: I wake up every two hours, wet myself and cry for 30 minutes before falling back to sleep.”

That’s why risk management is so critical: to save you from sleeping like a baby, and in the long run to save you a lot of money.

—There’s a reason flight attendants show you where the emergency exits are before takeoff. The same thinking should apply to investors. Prudent investors have a sell strategy in place beforethey get involved with a stock. Using any of these stop strategies helps keep your emotions out of the process when an investing emergency arises.

RISKING

  
  Education
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Trading is all about risk Control !The Following excerpt is from one of my favorite audiotapes ,’Risking ‘by David Viscount.I keep this on my desk to remind me each day to keep “Risking .”Only a person who risks is truly free

To laugh is to risk appearing the fool. To weep is to risk appearing sentimental. To reach for another is to risk involvement. To expose your feelings is to risk exposing your true self. To place your ideas, your dreams before a crowd is to risk their loss. To love is to risk not being loved in return. To live is to risk dying. To believe is to risk despair. To try is to risk failure. But risks must be taken, because the greatest hazard in life is to risk nothing. The person who risks nothing does nothing, has nothing, is nothing. They may avoid suffering an d sorrow, but they cannot learn, feel, change, grow, love, live. Chained by their attitudes they are slaves; they have forfeited their freedom. Only a person who risks is free.

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