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There were four big hints in Asia that Evergrande’s restructuring is a done deal

  
  Analysis
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PBOC is talking with other central banks

RBA Debelle
Phones have undoubtedly been ringing at the PBOC with other global central bankers on the line. They all have contacts at the PBOC and all global central banks coordinate and share information.
In a system like China’s where the PBOC isn’t independent, they would be on top of government plans. In a situation like Evergrande, they would be in every briefing and at the heart of the decision-making.
I strongly suspect that decisions have now been made and the need-to-know parts of those decisions have been communicated to other central bankers. Here’s why:
First of all, we saw that Evergrande today made an announcement about making an interest payment on domestic debt after negotiations with bond holders. The company is obviously done but that’s a sign that some kind of plan has been decided on’ and it’s not a disorderly collapse.
The second clue was a net 110 billion yuan in 7/14-day reverse repos. That’s the biggest injection since January and it’s a sign the PBOC is adding liquidity as a buffer because there will be some pain from the restructuring.
The third clue was in comments from the RBA’s Debelle earlier.
Evergrande

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AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine – study put on hold due to suspected adverse reaction in trial participant

  
  Analysis
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The Phase 3 study testing the AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford COVID-19 vaccine has been put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant in the United Kingdom.

Spokesperson for AstraZeneca
  • standard review process triggered a pause to vaccination to allow review of safety data
  • “a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.”
Risk negative, but so far little response. Eyes on the tech rout still. Globex equity index future trade reopens at the top of this hour.
coronavirus

Japan press – “Abenomics here to stay”

  
Analysis, Politics
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Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

  • the end of an era for Japanese politics
Abe will not be taking Abenomics with him though, Japan Times:
  • economists say Japan’s next leader will likely maintain he basic Abenomics framework
  • “For sure, markets will be watching the continuity. I think many are assuming that things won’t change a lot, but the new prime minister will need to clearly explain that,” said Daiju Aoki, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management Japan.
Shunsuke Kobayashi, chief economist at Mizuho Securities:
  • “The government will need to continue to deal with the pandemic and do what’s necessary to contain it while limiting the economic damage … whoever becomes the prime minister, he or she will have to face the same issue and take the same necessary steps” 
ps. Much of Abenomics boiled down to massive policy easing from the BOJ. This is not gonna change any time soon.
Abe was PM from 2006 to 2007 and then again since 2012. He will step down on or around September 15.  He is the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history. Get well soon, and enjoy your retirement sir!

Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

Trump to announce a $750m deal to buy 150m rapid Covid-19 tests from Abbott Labs

  
  Analysis
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White House senior adviser Alyssa Farah:
  • “This is a major development that will help our country to remain open, get Americans back to work and kids back to school”
No schedule has been set for Trump’s announcement.
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Abbott said it plans to ship tens of millions of the tests in September
expects to increase production to 50 million tests in October
Thursday in Asia time brought news of the rapid test receiving approval:

US Q2 GDP second reading -31.7% vs -32.5% expected

  
Analysis, Economy
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The second reading on Q2 gross domestic product

US GDP second reading Q2 2020
  • The first estimate was -32.9%
  • Q1 was -2.5%
  • Final sales -28.5% vs -29.3% prelim
  • Business investment -26.0% vs -27.0% prelim
  • Consumer spending -34.1% vs -34.6% prelim
  • Exports -63.2% vs -64.1% prelim
  • Imports -54.0% vs -53.4% prelim
  • Inventory change -$286.4B vs -$315.5B prelim
  • GDP deflator -2.3% vs -2.0% expected
  • Full release
Despite the headline, there’s more good news here than bad. The revision higher in inventories means that inventory rebuilding will be less of a tailwind in Q3 and Q4 than anticipated. The drop in inflation also added to real GDP.
“In the second estimate, real GDP decreased 31.7 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 1.2 percentage points from the previous estimate issued last month. The revision primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and PCE,” the BEA said in the release.

China reportedly said to expect record amount of US soybean purchases this year

  
  Analysis
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Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter

The report says that China is said to expect a record amount of US soybean purchases this year as “lower prices help to boost purchases pledged under the Phase One trade deal”.
Adding that the total imports from the US will probably reach about 40 million tonnes in 2020, which will be around 25% more than the 2017 level – the baseline year for the deal.
That said, one of the sources did provide a caveat in saying that despite the forecast and expectation, China’s imports will ultimately be decided by soybean prices and the impact of the virus pandemic i.e. no firm commitment.
I don’t think the report here is a coincidence after customs data yesterday showed that Chinese imports of US soybeans were unusually low in July this year, while imports of Brazil soybeans surged considerably.
For some context, China’s purchases of US farm goods up until July are at just ~27% of the target implied by the Phase One trade deal.
US China

Chinese officials are clamping down on speculative stock and metal trading – fearful of backlash if prices drop

  
  Analysis
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The Nikkei has the piece on Chinese officials seeking to calm investor fervour:

  • on fears that investor anger in the wake of any financial collapse would stoke discontent with the government
  • Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a major state-owned lender, notified customers at the end of July that it would cease setting up new accounts for financial products linked to platinum and palladium prices
  • Other banks have taken similar action
  • “This is what the authorities wanted,” said a sales manager at a large bank
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world …
The Nikkei has the piece on Chinese officials seeking to calm investor fervour:

Russia president Putin says have approved first Russian-produced coronavirus vaccine

  
  Analysis
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Putin says that his daughter has been vaccinated from the coronavirus

Putin
  • Says that Russian health ministry has approved coronavirus vaccine developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute
  • Says hopes Russia will start mass production of coronavirus vaccine
Take what you will and believe what you want from the headlines above, but this may lay the groundwork for other countries to start prepping their own “breakthroughs” sooner rather than later. As with everything related to the pandemic thus far, all it takes is for one country to set a precedent and the others will take that as an opportunity to follow.

Tokyo reportedly finds 266 new coronavirus cases in latest update today

  
  Analysis
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NHK reports on the latest virus situation in the Japanese capital

That just reaffirms the narrative that the low count from yesterday was largely skewed by the ‘weekend effect’ and the fact that there was a long weekend in Japan.

The virus trajectory in Japan has not been encouraging since the start of the month, with the spread of infections already surpassing that seen during the initial outbreak. As of yesterday, Japan has recorded over 8,000 active cases – the most since early May.

Japan
For now, the government is still maintaining that the situation does not call for any extraordinary measures to curb the spread of infections but let’s see how long they can keep at this with the Olympics next year a key focus as well.

Not a good look as USD/JPY nears 100 pip loss

  
Analysis, Forex
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USD/JPY wilts even as risk trades rise

The old correlation between the S&P 500 and USD/JPY is dead. Stocks have climbed in the past 20 minutes and the pair is at the lows of the day.
More importantly, the technical pictures is melting as the pair falls below the May low once again. It would take a miracle turnaround to finish back above 106.00 today. With the break lower, there isn’t much to halt a decline to the 2020 lows.
USD/JPY wilts even as risk trades rise
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