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Japan press – “Abenomics here to stay”

Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

  • the end of an era for Japanese politics
Abe will not be taking Abenomics with him though, Japan Times:
  • economists say Japan’s next leader will likely maintain he basic Abenomics framework
  • “For sure, markets will be watching the continuity. I think many are assuming that things won’t change a lot, but the new prime minister will need to clearly explain that,” said Daiju Aoki, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management Japan.
Shunsuke Kobayashi, chief economist at Mizuho Securities:
  • “The government will need to continue to deal with the pandemic and do what’s necessary to contain it while limiting the economic damage … whoever becomes the prime minister, he or she will have to face the same issue and take the same necessary steps” 
ps. Much of Abenomics boiled down to massive policy easing from the BOJ. This is not gonna change any time soon.
Abe was PM from 2006 to 2007 and then again since 2012. He will step down on or around September 15.  He is the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history. Get well soon, and enjoy your retirement sir!

Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

Japan GDP, final for Q3: 0.4% q/q

Third quarter economic growth in Japan, this the final (link to the preliminary is below)

  • GDP sa q/q  0.4%, ahead of the preliminary result.
  • GDP annualised sa 1.8%
  • GDP nominal q/q 0.6%
  • GDP deflator (an inflation indication)
  • Private consumption 0.5% q/q
  • Business spending 1.8% q/q
For the preliminary readings and those for Q2, here is the report:
  • Japan GDP (preliminary) for Q3 0.1% q/q (vs. expected 0.2%)
The growth figures are well ahead of the preliminary release. A relatively string report. Some of the strength in consumer activity will be ‘front loading’ ahead of the sales tax hike that came on October 1 I guess (although this did not show up to much extent in other data).

Guggenheim’s Recession Probability Model shows US recession can not be avoided

Guggenheim recession forecast model showed a 58% chance of the economy being in a recession by mid-2020

  • 77% chance of one beginning in the next 24 months
  • “aggressive policy action can delay recession, but not avoid it.”
From a note written by Guggenheim Partners global chief investment officer Scott Minerd.
  • Minerd oversees more than $US240 billion in assets under management
via Reuters, more at the link
As an aside, when folks quote probabilities at something like 77% instead of rounded to 70, or 80, or 75 or some such they tend to gain more credibility.
I’m not dissing Guggenheim here, just making an observation. Which is accurate 76.38% of the time.
😉
And another thing …. if the probability is 77% then it can be avoided, right? (at least in the time frame specified)