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Economic data coming up in the European session

  
  Analysis
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US equities snapped back to losses yesterday, though they finished off the lows at least. Futures are keeping mildly higher today but the overall mood remains more tepid as we start to move towards European morning trade.

The dollar is a touch softer but nothing significant, as major currencies are still keeping in rather narrow ranges for the most part today.
It is still going to be all about risk sentiment ahead of the weekend, so expect virus headlines to dominate once again to see if we can get more meaningful price action rather than the choppy back and forth we have been seeing since last week.
0900 GMT – Eurozone May construction output data
Prior release can be found here. Construction activity is expected to bounce back after bottoming out in April, but overall conditions should remain highly subdued still.
0900 GMT – Eurozone June final CPI figures
The preliminary report can be found here. As this is the final release, it shouldn’t have much – if any – impact to markets.
Also, at 0800 GMT we will be getting the latest ECB survey of professional of forecasters but it isn’t really much of a notable release.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

European shares end the session with mixed results

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Italy and Portugal indices move higher

the major European indices are ending the session with mixed results. Germany, France, UK and Spain show declines while Italy and Portugal eked out gains. The closes are showing:

  • German DAX, -0.43%
  • France’s CAC, -0.42%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.62%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.2%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.3%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20, +0.95%
Italy and Portugal indices move higher_
In the European debt market, benchmark 10 year yields fell across the board with UK yields down the most at -2.8 basis points.
European 10 year yieldsIn other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • spot gold $-4.25 or -0.23% $1806.05. The high for the day reached $1813.48. The low extended to $1802.97
  • WTI crude oil futures fell $0.19 or -0.46% to $41.01. It’s high price reached $41.18 while the low extended to $40.60. The September contract is currently down $0.21 or -0.51% of $41.19
In the forex market,
  • GBPUSD. The GBPUSD is trading at new session highs in the currently hourly bar. In the process, the price has moved back above its 200 and 100 hour moving average. That tilted the bias back to the upside in what has been an up and down market over the last 7 or so trading days. On the topside a trendline connecting highs from this we currently comes in at 1.2634. The high from yesterday reached 1.26487. The high for the week on Monday reached 1.26652.
  • EURUSD: The EURUSD moved higher in the London session after finding support buyers near the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the Friday low at 1.13759. The high price reached 1.1441. The high price from yesterday reached 1.14512. There is close support at 1.14223 area

Dollar selling creeps in, S&P 500 futures higher

  
  Uncategorized
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Risk on the theme

The new week is starting where the last one left off.
S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% to start the week after a massive rally in global equities last week, including +10% in some European equities.
Protests didn’t slow down the market last week and they aren’t having an effect today. In FX, the US dollar and yen are sagging, which is a classic risk-on stance.
So far the moves are modest with the commodity currencies up 15-20 pips. The pound was especially soft late in the day Friday but it’s got some life early, up 27 pips to 1.2695.

Eurostoxx futures +1.1% in early European trading

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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  • German DAX futures +1.0%
  • UK FTSE futures +2.4%
  • Spanish IBEX futures +1.0%
This follows a round of solid gains across the board to start the week yesterday, in which we saw the DAX starting to break out to fresh highs in nearly two months:
DAX

ICYMI – US Senate moves to punish China on coronavirus

  
  Analysis
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From the US afternoon, when equities and risk currencies dropped away …. or more accurately, continued to drop away …

US Senator Lindsey Graham, (persistent brown nose to Trump), weighing in yet again to try to cover up from the disastrous US fumbling of the crisis:
  • accused China’s Communist Party of deception over the virus
  • “I’m convinced China will never cooperate with a serious investigation unless they are made to do so.”
Graham proposed a “COVID-19 Accountability Act”
  • requiring China provide “a full and complete accounting to any COVID-19 investigation led by the United States, its allies or UN affiliate such as the World Health Organization
  • require certification that China had closed all wet markets
  • bill would authorize the president to impose a range of sanctions
all within 60 days.
It weighed on markets and there is a little more follow through in early Asia.

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs trimmed for the 2nd week in a row.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending May 5, 2020.

  • EUR long 76K vs 80K long last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • GBP short 12K vs 7K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • JPY long 27K vs 32K long last week. Longs trimmed by 5K
  • CHF long 8K vs 6K long last week. Longs increased by 2K
  • AUD short 33k vs 38K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • NZD short 15K  vs 14K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • CAD short 32k vs 29K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K

Highlights:

  • the largest position change was 5K in the GBP, JPY and AUD. The GBP positions were increased by 5K, while the JPY and AUD positions were trimmed by 5K
  • The EUR long remains the largest position, but is lower for the 2nd week in a row. The net long over the last 2 weeks has seen the 87K to 76K this week
  • The AUD and CAD are the next largest positions at 33K and 32K respectively. However, traders are short AUD,and long CAD.
Below is a chart of the deposition in the EUR.  Although lower from the recent peak, it is still near high levels for the year, and high levels going back to June 2018.
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending May 5, 2020.

Eurodollars

  
Analysis, Forex
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I have some questions regarding eurodollars and attempted to answer them myself: Why is GE quoted as interest rates, but de facto acts like a commodity ? Why were GE quotes up (rates on eurodollar deposits down) during the 2008/2020 crises. There was lots of cash demand.

– GE futures prices DO show de facto demand for cash (any fx cash offshore demand)
– GE is priced as rate to par of deposits
– GE reacts to or anticipates FED rates, as FED reacts to cash demand
– the rate of the deposits are not directly driven by supply and demand of global cash, but are driven by “external”/ non-eurodollar-mkt interest rates
– GE quotes can not be understand by the internal supply and demand of the eurodollar mkt conclusion: even GE-quotes are interest rates, GE-quotes act de facto like commodity prices, e.g. currently show huge cash demand.

Does you agree with my answers?

European shares end with solid gains as risk on sentiment increases

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Hopes f him him him rom Gilead news propel European shares higher.

European indices are ending the session with solid gains on hopes from the Gilead remdesivir drug,
  • German DAX, +3.0%
  • France’s CAC, +2.32%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +2.77%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +3.24%
In the European 10 year note sector are mostly lower with the exception of Italy (their credit rating was lowered by Fitch after the close yesterday)
Hopes f him him him _rom Gilead news propel European shares higher.

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Nasdaq worst day ever. Stocks plunge.

  
Analysis, US Market
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What an active day:

  • The Fed cut rates 1% in the Asian session, surprising the market.
  • The Fed announced quantitative easing to the tune of 500bn Treasuries & 200bn MBS
  • The Fed announced that banks can borrow from the Discount window for up to 90 days
  • They added liquiidity via daily repo action.  The Fed basically said, whatever you need, we will provide
  • Later in the day, the Senate Democrats offered a $750B stimulus package (TBD how it progresses).

So what happened in the markets?

Stocks plummeted

  • The Nasdaq had its worst day ever.
  • The Dow and the S&P % decline was the worst since 1987
  • The Dow’s point drop was the worst point loss ever
Many superlatives, but unfortunately they are all negative.
The numbers at the close are showing:
  • Dow industrial average fell 2997.10 points or -12.93% to 20188.52.
  • S&P index fell -324.89 points or -11.98% to 238-6413
  • Nasdaq index fell -970.28 points or -12.32% at 6904.59
Forex news for NY trading on March 16, 2020
In the US debt market, not only did yields tumble with the 10 year leading the way at -23.4 basis points….
US yields traded higher with the longer and moving up the most.
…but the spreads between European and US started to converge. European 10 year yields were mostly higher with Germany up 8.3 basis points and France up 14.8 basis points.  The combination has pushed those levels closer and closer.
European yields rose in trading today

In the gold and precious metals market, prices fell.

  • Spot gold had a volatile day and is closing down $-18.46 or -1.21% at $1511.37.  The high for the day was up at $1575.47 while the low extended all the way down to $1451.55
  • Spot silver also traded violently. It is closing at $12.90, down $-1.81 or -12.35% It traded in a $3.30 trading range. The high reached $15.15, while the low extended to $11.80. Crazy volatility
The oil markets were also volatile and moved lower as Saudi Arabia said they were not backing down from production cuts. The final numbers are showing:
  • WTI crude oil futures $28.70. $-3.03 or -9.55%. The high price reached $33.75. The low price extended to $28.10.
  • Brent crude oil is trading at $29.52, or $-4.33 or -12.79% on the day.  It’s high price extended to $35.84 while the low fell to $29.50.
Finally in the forex market, the flows so the JPY and the EUR benefit the most. They were the strongest of the major currencies. The JPY benefited from the Pavlovian flight into the “safety of the JPY”. The EUR is a bit of a head scratcher as it is the current epicenter of the coronavirus.

Circuit breaker levels to watch in the S&P 500 later today

  
Analysis, US Market
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How low can you go?

SPX

US futures hit limit down very early in the trading day and with European equities pointing to a 8-9% drop across the board, it looks like US stocks will be headed for an extremely rough open later in the cash market (S&P ETF down by nearly 10% now).
Here are the key circuit breaker levels to watch today:
  • Level 1: 2,521.25 or down 7% from Friday close
  • Level 2: 2,358.59 or down 13% from Friday close
  • Level 3: 2,168.82 or down 20% from Friday close
If anything else, also keep an eye out on the key trendline support that stretches back all the way to 2009, currently near the 2,500 level. Clearly, this did not age very well:
SPX Trump
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