Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:
- EUR short 75K vs 75K short last week. Unchanged
- GBP short 73K vs 73K short last week. Unchanged
- JPY short 7K vs 11K long last week. Longs switch to shorts in an 18K drop
- CHF short 13k vs 11k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- AUD short 48k vs 46k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
- NZD short 40K vs 38K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
- CAD long 13K vs 5K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K
- Prior week
The big moves in sterling came last week and I’m surprised there wasn’t any covering through Tuesday. That’s good news if you’re long GBP because it leaves lots of juice to squeeze.
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC should
- EUR short 66K vs 61K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
- GBP short 77K vs 81K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
- JPY long 14K vs 13K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1kK
- CHF short 12k vs 11k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
- AUD short 52k vs 47k short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
- NZD short 42K vs 45K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
- CAD long 6K vs 5K long last week. Longs increased by 1K
- prior week
Modest changes in the major currencies for the current week. Although speculators trimmed short positions in the pound, it remains the largest specular position. The EUR shorts increased by 5K. It is the 2nd largest short position.
The specular position in the JPY remains on the long side. The CAD is also a long position for traders.
1) The less successful traders are anticipating market movement and trading accordingly. The highly successful traders are identifying asset class mispricings and trading off those.
2) The less successful traders are trading particular instruments and pretty much stick to those. The highly successful traders recognize that any combination of trading instruments can be considered an asset class and appropriately priced (and gauged for mispricing).
3) The less successful traders think of their market as *the* market. The highly successful traders focus on interrelationships among markets that cut across nationalities and asset classes.
4) The highly successful traders place just as much emphasis on understanding markets as predicting them. The less successful traders don’t ask “why” questions.
5) The less successful traders are convinced they have proprietary information of value that they must not disclose to anyone. The highly successful traders use their proprietary information to selectively share with other highly successful participants, thereby gaining a large informational edge.
If I had to use one phrase to capture the essence of the highly successful traders, it would be analytical creativity. These traders are creative in their thinking about markets and rigorous in their pursuit of this creativity.