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Economic data coming up in the European session

  
  Analysis
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Eurozone October final inflation reading in focus today

Comic 15-11

Happy Friday, everyone! Hope you’re all doing well as we look to get things going in the session ahead. Risk trades are in a better mood today with some recovery seen in yen pairs and gold is also lower to start the day.

Meanwhile, equities have nudged higher while bond yields are also faring better as the Trump administration talk up hopes of a trade deal.

Looking ahead, there is little on the economic calendar in Europe to really shift the dial so we may be in for a more quiet one barring any major headlines to cross the wires.
1000 GMT – Eurozone October final CPI figures
The preliminary report can be found here. As this is the final release, it isn’t expected to have much – if any – impact on markets as a whole.
1000 GMT – Eurozone September trade balance data
Prior release can be found here. An indication of trade conditions in the euro area region but the data is a bit lagging as this pertains to Q3 economic performance.
1000 GMT – Italy October final CPI figures
The preliminary report can be found here. Focus is on the overall Eurozone release so the report here will matter little, and even more so since this is the final release.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!

US major indices close mixed/a little changed

  
Analysis, US Market
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The S&P squeezes out a new record high. The Dow just misses

The US major indices are closing the session mixed/little changed after a down and up session.
Although little changed, the major indices did stage a comeback from much lower levels intraday.
The final provisional closes are showing:
  • the S&P index +2.69 points or 0.09% at 3096.73. The high reached 3098.20. The low extended to 3083.26. The close was good enough for a new all-time record
  • The Nasdaq index lagged a bit behind. It close down -3.081 points or -0.04% at 8479.02. Its high price reached 8485 .35. The low extended to 8441.582. The NASDAQ has failed to make new highs for 2 consecutive days
  • The Dow closed down -1.63 points at 27781. 96. The high reached 27800.71. The low extended to 27676.97. The Dow close at a record yesterday. So the small decline today kept the index from a new record.

Below is a look at the % high, low and close for the North American and European major indices.  The major indices in the US close near session highs and well off session lows.

The S&P squeezes out a new record high. The Dow just misses

Dow and S&P close at all time records. Nasdaq does not.

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow leads the way. S&P marginally higher.  Nasdaq marginally lower

The major US indices are ending the session mixed.
  • The Dow led the way with a gain of 92.10 points or 0.33% at 27783.59
  • The S&P index ended marginally higher by 2.20 points or 0.07% at 3094.04
  • The NASDAQ index fell -3.989 points or -0.05% at 8482.10.
The record-o-meter is showing both the Dow and S&P closing at record high levels. The NASDAQ index – despite reaching new all time intraday highs – did not sustain the gains,and therefore did not close at a new all-time record high.

USD/JPY falls to four-day low as bond yields sink further on the day

  
Analysis, Forex
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USD/JPY falls to a low of 108.80, below the 200-hour moving average

USD/JPY H1 13-11

As the risk mood continues to soften, it is dragging yen pairs lower now as we move towards US trading. 10-year Treasury yields are now down by over 7 bps to 1.862% and that is helping to keep the yen bid at the moment.
There isn’t really any fresh catalysts for the continued nudge softer in the risk mood today but as mentioned earlier, the lack of progress in US-China trade talks appear to be breeding contempt and is starting to weigh on markets.
For USD/JPY, price is now tracking under the 200-hour MA (blue line) as sellers look to seize near-term control. The 7 November low @ 108.65 will be the next key support level to watch out for in case of a push lower later today.

Dow closes unchanged. Nasdaq closes at a record. S&P just short

  
Analysis, US Market
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Is unchanged in the Dow a record?

Does a “tie go to the runner” in stocks (that’s a baseball term). That is, a Dow that closes unchanged, does it make it a record close or because the record was already reached yesterday, is itnot a record?
Regardless of it being record or not, what we do know it is it is rare that the Dow ends the day spot on the level from the previous day. So lets relish that unusual occurence.
The Nasdaq however, did close at a record high with its gain today. The S&P fell short by a point or two today.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P rose 4.83 points or 0.16% at 3091.84.
  • The NASDAQ index rose 21.814 points or 0.26% at 8486.09
  • The Dow ended same level as yesterday at 27691.49.
European shares today and higher with the exception of the Spanish Ibex.
Below is a graphical look of the percentage high percentage low in percent close for the major indices in North America and Europe today.

Global Debt Tops $188,000,000,000,000 – Officially The Biggest Debt Bubble The World Has Ever Seen

  
Analysis, Economy
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The world is now 188 trillion dollars in debt, and that number continues to grow rapidly each year.

It is a form of enslavement that is deeply insidious, because most of those living on the planet do not even understand how the system works, and even if they did most of them would have absolutely no hope of ever getting free from it. The borrower is the servant of the lender, and the global financial system is designed to funnel as much wealth to the top 0.1% as possible. Of course throughout human history there has always been slavery, and the primary motivation for having slaves is to extract an economic benefit from those that are enslaved. And even though most of us don’t like to think of ourselves as “slaves” today, the truth is that the global elite are extracting more wealth from all of us than ever before. So much of our labor is going to make them wealthy, and yet most people don’t even realize what is happening.

Let’s start with a very simple example to help illustrate this. (more…)

Moodys Downgrades UK Outlook To Negative On “Brexit Paralysis”

  
Analysis, Economy
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Moody’s downgraded its outlook on Britain’s debt (currently rated Aa2) to negative from stable after the market close on Friday, saying Brexit had been a catalyst for an erosion in the country’s institutional strength, perceived “material deterioration” in UK governance, and that the country’s ability to set policy has weakened in the Brexit era along with its commitment to fiscal discipline.

The outlook cut represents a catch down to its competitors: the UK is currently rated AA by S&P and AA- at Fitch Ratings, with both companies having the UK on negative watch.

“It would be optimistic to assume that the previously cohesive, predictable approach to legislation and policymaking in the UK will return once Brexit is no longer a contentious issue, however that is achieved,” the ratings agency said adding that “the increasing inertia and, at times, paralysis that has characterized the Brexit-era policymaking process has illustrated how the capability and predictability that has traditionally distinguished the U.K.’s institutional framework has diminished.”

“The decline in institutional strength appears to Moody’s to be structural in nature and likely to survive Brexit given the deep divisions within society and the country’s political landscape,” Moody’s added.

The decision to put the UK on negative outlook even as Moody’s affirmed Britain’s Aa2 long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings comes one month before an election that is likely to determine the future of Brexit. While the election will have a big impact on Brexit, this week has seen both sides escalate their spending pledges, drawing election battle lines with plans to end a decade of U.K. austerity. (more…)

Moody’s changes ratings outlook for eight Indian corporates to negative following sovereign outlook change -Full Text

  
  Analysis
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Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has taken a number of rating actions on Indian non-financial corporates, following its earlier announcement that it has changed the outlook on India’s Baa2 sovereign rating to negative from stable.

As a result of the sovereign rating action, Moody’s has changed the outlook on the ratings of the following companies:

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings and revised outlook to negative from stable. Also affirmed the (P)Baa2 foreign currency senior unsecured rating on the MTN program. The ba1 baseline credit assessment (BCA) is affirmed.

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt rating and revised outlook to negative from stable.

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings and revised outlook to negative from stable. The ba1 BCA is affirmed.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC): Affirmed Baa1 local and foreign currency issuer rating; revised outlook to negative from stable. Also affirmed the (P)Baa1 foreign and local senior unsecured ratings on the MTN program. The baa1 BCA is affirmed.

Oil India Limited (OIL): Affirmed Baa2 local and foreign currency issuer and foreign currency senior unsecured debt ratings; revised outlook to negative from stable. The baa3 BCA is affirmed.

Petronet LNG Limited (PLL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer rating; revised outlook to negative from stable.

Infosys Limited (Infosys): Affirmed A3 local currency issuer rating and revised outlook to negative from stable.

Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCS): Affirmed A3 local currency issuer rating and revised outlook to negative from stable.

A full list of affected ratings is provided towards the end of this press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE (more…)

The S&P and Dow off highs but still close at record highs

  
Analysis, US Market
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All major indices close higher

The major stock indices closed off their high levels for the day as US/China trade deal details go back and forth.  However, they S&P and Dow still closed at record levels. The NASDAQ was higher but still off its record close level.
The final numbers are showing
  • S&P index, 8.42 points or 0.27% at 3085.20. The high reached 3097.77. The low extended to 3080.23
  • NASDAQ index +23.88 points or 0.28% at 8434.51. The high reached 8483.156. The low extended to 8415.87
  • Dow is up 182.24 points or 0.66% at 27674.80. The high for the day reached 27774.67 The low reached 27590.16
After the close, Disney EPS came in higher than expectations at $1.07 versus $0.95 estimate. The revenues came in at $19.10 billion versus $19.04 billion estimate.  Is the stock is trading at $136.00 after closing at $133.12.
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