Archives of “dips” tag

rss

"The Confident Trader "

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Confidence overcomes fear. Confidence also overcomes greed because a component of greed is an underlying sense of scarcity. To be confident doesn’t mean that every trade or trading day will be profitable. What it does mean is that when you look to where you want to go, you know that you can figure out a strategy that will get you there. And you know you can execute that strategy in a consistent manner. A successful strategy doesn’t mean anything if you don’t or can’t or won’t employ it.

Theoretically we should be as successful at trading and investing as our trading and investing strategies. Unfortunately the vast majority of traders and investors fall far short of the results of their strategies. They trip over themselves again and again on the way to employing their methods. My work as a trading coach is to enable traders around the world to become as good as their methods.

Confidence need not waver when you have dips and troughs and plateaus in your trading. Confidence is developed when you realize you can correct mistakes and learn from failures. You don’t persist in failing. You learn and move on. You don’t fear repeating the failure either, you simply anticipate correcting it.

Self esteem is basically the sum total of all the thoughts we have about ourselves. This is quite important because we do tend to become what we think about ourselves. The noted philosopher and psychologist, William James, said, “People, in general, become what they think of themselves.” Not only did he say this but he added that this was the essence of all we had learned in psychology in the prior 100 years.

What do you think of yourself as a trader? Do you believe that your dream of excelling as a trader is possible? Do you have a set of philosophies that support your dream? Are you as good as your methods? If not, it’s time to do something about it.

Consider my coaching program. I speak for an hour on the phone each week with the traders I coach. We review your trading, beliefs, attitudes, habits, and philosophies. I help you do more of what works and stop doing what doesn’t work. Through exercises, assignments, and repetitive listening to the CD’s I send, you can become as good as your methods. The money you invest in yourself—especially in difficult times—is truly the best investment you can make. It will pay you exponentially because you never leave yourself. Call me at 800-692-0080, and we’ll discuss it.

Characteristics of Bear Market

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #
  • Sellers are in control
  • Oversold often stays oversold for a long time
  • Markets drop a lot faster than they go up
  • Bear markets burn and churn accounts with long only exposure
  • Volume and liquidity can dry up but price can still drop significantly
  • ‘Cheap’ can get a lot ‘cheaper’
  • Hope is slowly destroyed
  • Vicious bear market rallies try to suck in traders to trap them
  • Expect lots of gaps to the downside
  • It takes a long time until market participants throw in the towel

This is appropriate trading behaviour during bear markets:

  • Either in cash or short
  • Sell the rallies mentality
  • Do NOT buy the dips
  • Do not even think about going long if you are not an active and experienced trader

Ten Laws of Technical Trading

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

1. Map the Trends

Study long-term charts. Begin a chart analysis with monthly and weekly charts spanning several years. A larger scale map of the market provides more visibility and a better long-term perspective on a market. Once the long-term has been established, then consult daily and intra-day charts. A short-term market view alone can often be deceptive. Even if you only trade the very short term, you will do better if you’re trading in the same direction as the intermediate and longer term trends.

2. Spot the Trend and Go With It

Determine the trend and follow it. Market trends come in many sizes – long-term, intermediate-term and short-term. First, determine which one you’re going to trade and use the appropriate chart. Make sure you trade in the direction of that trend. Buy dips if the trend is up. Sell rallies if the trend is down. If you’re trading the intermediate trend, use daily and weekly charts. If you’re day trading, use daily and intra-day charts. But in each case, let the longer range chart determine the trend, and then use the shorter term chart for timing.

3. Find the Low and High of It

Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old “high” becomes the new low. In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies – the old “low” can become the new “high.”

4. Know How Far to Backtrack

Measure percentage retracements. Market corrections up or down usually retrace a significant portion of the previous trend. You can measure the corrections in an existing trend in simple percentages. A fifty percent retracement of a prior trend is most common. A minimum retracement is usually one-third of the prior trend. The maximum retracement is usually two-thirds. Fibonacci retracements of 38% and 62% are also worth watching. During a pullback in an uptrend, therefore, initial buy points are in the 33-38% retracement area.

5. Draw the Line

Draw trend lines. Trend lines are one of the simplest and most effective charting tools. All you need is a straight edge and two points on the chart. Up trend lines are drawn along two successive lows. Down trend lines are drawn along two successive peaks. Prices will often pull back to trend lines before resuming their trend. The breaking of trend lines usually signals a change in trend. A valid trend line should be touched at least three times. The longer a trend line has been in effect, and the more times it has been tested, the more important it becomes. (more…)

John Murphy’s Ten Laws of Technical Trading

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Which way is the market moving? How far up or down will it go? And when will it go the other way? These are the basic concerns of the technical analyst. Behind the charts and graphs and mathematical formulas used to analyze market trends are some basic concepts that apply to most of the theories employed by today’s technical analysts.”

The following are John’s ten most important rules of technical trading:

• Map the Trends
• Spot the Trend and Go With It
• Find the Low and High of It
• Know How Far to Backtrack
• Draw the Line
• Follow That Average
• Learn the Turns
• Know the Warning Signs
• Trend or Not a Trend?
• Know the Confirming Signs

Note: All of the following is the work of John Murphy (not me) (more…)

When To Quit

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Whether you are following your own trading system, or following an advisory, newsletter or some other service, if you don’t have an exit plan for discontinuing it, you should.

Why? Studies have shown that when people are under stress, many times they make poor decisions. Certainly if you were losing money with your systems you would be stressed. Consequently, you might make a knee jerk reaction to the losses, or you may stick your head in the sand and avoid a decision all together. Both scenarios can be dangerous. So, the time when you are losing is a bad time to determine when to exit.

Ideally, you already determined when to stop trading when you first decided to trade the system. If not, it is not too late. Just determine the metric(s) that are most important to you. They could include such things as:

• Maximum drawdown

• Consecutive losers in a row

• Amount lost in a week/month/year

• Overall profit after X months

• Overall winning percentage dips below XX %

• Significant break in your personal equity trendline, or equity moving average

• New highs, or breaking of another “good” metric (yes, some people try to quit at the top)

• Anything that can be measured and monitored

The exact condition you select probably is not as important as writing it down and sticking to it. That is the key. It needs to be solid, definitive and written down. Ideally, you’ll also tell your spouse or a friend, too, since it is harder to back out when you make the proclamation public. 

I’ve heard that one money management firm’s exit criteria is 1.5 times the maximum drawdown, and a 24 month commitment. Those aren’t bad, but the best one is the one that you feel comfortable with – one you can stick with.

You’ll definitely worry less about your system’s performance if you write down and follow your exit plan – today!

Accepting Loss

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

One of the fundamental principals of trading stocks, or anything for that matter, is; you never play with money you cannot afford to lose. You should not be trading money needed for car payments, rent, food, diapers etc. The reason for this is, no matter how sound a system or piece of advice may sound, trades often go against you. Trading money you can afford to lose means that you have money to live, some money saved for a rainy day, and some for trading.

Now, by trading money you can afford to, or are willing to lose means just that. Even a successful trader’s account may experience dips or losses at many points. In fact, being willing to lose, or admit loss is essential to trading. (more…)

Five key for profitable trading

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

There are five key things that make all the difference in profitable trading:

Focus on a system with bigger wins than losses, big wins makes robustness a much easier thing to find. A 1:3 risk/return ratio makes it much easier to be profitable even with more losses than wins.

Trade in the direction of the trend, in my experience buying dips in a bull market and selling into strength in a bear market is a much easier process than calling tops and catching falling knives.

Trade small versus your buying power, most systems fail because traders simple trade too big causing losses and being wrong to set them back far too much. Small losses are easy to come back from a string of big losses is fatal.

Trade price action not opinions. Be quick to cut losses and patient to ride winners. Getting stuck on what you think should happen could be fatal when the market disagrees with you.

Your goal as a trader is to find an edge over the 90% of traders that lose money, once you have that edge the more you trade the right signals the better chance you have of being profitable. Before you have an edge the volume of trades work against you as your luck runs out. 

MARKET WISDOM

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

A list of golden sayings and rules I have gleaned from many sources:
wisdom-thought

  • Plan your trades, trade your plan.
  • Trade Quality, Not Quantity.
  • Keep it simple.
  • Don’t look for a reason to enter the market, look for a reason NOT to enter.
  • Don’t act due to “Newbie Nerves”
  • Don’t make up a trade. If you have to look, it isn’t there.
  • Never play with scared money.
  • You are not the market.
  • Buy dips in an uptrend, sell rallies in a downtrend.
  • Do not try to pick tops and bottoms.
  • It is only divergence if it came off a retracement – not a sideways market.
  • Indicators warn, price action confirms.
  • Divergence is early, cross-overs are late.
  • You cannot expect your positions to go immediately into the money.
  • Divergence means a detour, but not necessarily a new trend.
  • No-one knows what will happen in the markets.
  • Standing aside is a position.
  • Subordinate your will to the will of the market.
  • Large ranges beget small ranges, small ranges beget large ranges.
  • Once a thing is set in motion, it tends to stay in motion.
  • Sniper-rifle, not a shotgun.
  • Cut your losses short, let your profits run.
  • Only move stops in the direction of your position.
  • Do not let a winner turn into a loser.
  • Never add to a losing position.
  • Forget losses quickly. Forget profits even quicker.
  • Consistent behavior equals consistent results.

There are probably more, send ’em in…

Sentiment Cycle

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

RETURNING CONFIDENCE
On the upside, the area where churning takes place is in between the Returning Confidence phase and the Subtle Warning phase, after a significant advance has already taken place. This often appears in the form of a head and shoulders top on weekly or monthly charts. By the time confidence returns, the market has already been going up for ages while the retracement patterns become ever larger, each one scarier than the last.
To technical traders, this type of price action tells us that the market is getting tired. Perceived bull market volatility excites investors. They waited forever on the sidelines for fundamentals to confirm that the move up was ‘real’. The coast is finally clear and they jump in with both feet. This phase typically ends with a failure on test of top, and the big, super scary ‘buy the dip’ pullback begins.
BUY THE BIG DIP
The public continues to pour money in, lured by glowing good news and economic data. After the long move up, finding attractive stocks becomes difficult for technical traders and market veterans. Traders chase momentum where they find it. Investors believe that the game is back on, and they are willing to take big risk and buy big dips. This Big Dip usually comes after a failed test of top in the Returning Confidence phase. The Big Dip typically takes price below the 50-day simple moving average and quite often, to the 200-day moving average. This is where ABC Corrections are typically found.
ENTHUSIASM
Once it is widely accepted that economic and corporate fundamentals are supporting higher prices, a bell goes off. The bull survived The Big Dip. Those who had previously been afraid now have plenty of reasons – and proof – that it is safe to go back into the market and buy again.  (more…)

4 Types of Trades

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

4type

Stock trading consists of 4 major types of trades.

The range-bound trade: the stock is tied in a range and will remain there until there is a significant change in the supply/demand dynamics. For this trade you fade any move to the boundaries of the range with a tight stop a little bit below/above the range. If the range is broken, you will lose small amount. It is good for scalpers with shorter trading horizon.

The breakout trade: in order to break from a range, a stock needs to experience a major shift in supply/demand. A dramatic occurrence. News or expectation of news. The news doesn’t have to be connected with the individual stock. It might be something that impacts the whole industry or market. Sudden change in participants’ confidence. Not every breakout will be caused by clear news. Often it will happen at no news at all. In any case, volume should be your tell how genuine the move is. Buy several cents above the range with a stop several cents into the range. (more…)

Go to top