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Mark Minervini on discipline

Other than selling stocks short, I don’t know of any long-side method that works that great in a bear market. Very few stocks, even value stocks, can survive the wrath of a true bear decline.

The best leading stocks generally see their big performance a year or two into a bull market. I focus on those stocks in order to make a huge return in a relative short period of time. There is no need to be in the market all the time; in fact, I think there is grave danger in doing so. It’s like going out on a boat trip: you want to go out when the sky is blue and the seas are calm. Sure, you could stay out there and brave a hurricane and there would be a chance you’d make it through, but why would you want to do that, and how many times would you survive those conditions?

Why Most Investors and Nearly All Traders Lose Money

I strongly suggest that you do not confuse being an Investors with being a Trader. I’ve been pointing out for many years that the Stock Market is greatly influenced by day-traders, flash-traders, program-trading firms, in for quick trades of a few hours, a couple of days at most, and back out again. That’s not Investing and certainly not Investing Wisely.

The problem for Investors is that they have for decades, for the most part, considered themselves to be Buy and Hold Investors, (married to the stocks and mutual funds) through both good times and bad. When they finally get discouraged, (and they do!)they get out, usually due to large losses, and they tend to stay out for very long periods. An excellent current example is / are those who have been on the sidelines since the big bear market plunge of October 2007 through early last year, not enticed back in for even part of the new bull market of last year plus.

They (Mutual Fund Investors) tend to listen to Wall Street saying they need to have a long-term perspective when their stocks and mutual funds are plunging 25% – 50% and more, and so hold on. When they do decide to ‘reposition’ their portfolio they tend to listen to mutual fund managers, and brokerage firm sales persons and spokesmen on TV shows and in magazines, advising them to buy a stock that should be 30% higher 24 months from now, without considering that it might first be 30% lower three or more months from now.

Historically (way back when) Buy and Hold strategies and long-term outlooks work well in secular bull markets, when there is /was much less downside risk, when bear markets are more spaced out, less severe, and short-lived. In secular bull markets the long term trend is up, and when bear markets end the market ‘comes back’ to its previous high in the next cyclical bull market and continues on to still higher highs, continuing to be interrupted by only occasional mild bear markets.

Those days are gone and possible gone forever.

It’s the cyclical bull markets that are temporary, not exceeding previous highs before the next cyclical bear market takes the market back down again. In both secular and cyclical bear markets Buy and Hold is probably the worst imaginable investment strategy. Not only does it not produce gains, but even the most determined Buy and Hold investors are likely to give up with the worst of timing, after their losses have become larger than they can handle either financially or emotionally. (more…)

For Ongoing Phase…

There is no trading – classroom or otherwise – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether is the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There is typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief volatile time. The only way to learn how to trade during that last third of a move is to do it, more precisely, live it.

All bubbles tend to reach extremes not expected by most people.

Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

You can go broke by being right. Have an entry and exit strategy.

Overcoming the top 10 Pains of Trading.

PAIN-ASE

Here are 7 painful aspects of trading and what to do about them.

  1. The pain of losing money. (Trade smaller so it is not painful, it is just an outcome)
  2. The pain of being wrong about a trade you were sure about. (You lost simply because the market didn’t match your trade, trend followers lose money in choppy markets, swing traders lose money in trending markets, it’s the market not you.)
  3. The pain of a draw down in capital.(Even the world’s best money managers do not continually hit all time equity highs. Your path may look like this $10,000 to $20,000 to $15,000 to $25,000 to $20,000 to $30,000.  Mine was rockier than most, and after blood, sweat and tears I am now able to trade with $250,000.)
  4. Consecutive trading losses hurt. They make you doubt yourself, your method, and your system. (You need to remember your winning trades, your winning years, or your back-testing, or paper trading of the method.)
  5. The embarrassment of public losses. You told everyone who would listen about a great trade, and you were wrong. (Never be overconfident in any trade, but always be sure of your stop loss.)
  6. The pain of of admitting you were wrong. (Cut your loss and move on to the next trade, trade reality not your ego.)
  7. Losing paper profits, you are up 20% on a trade then a massive whip saw takes back those profits in one move. (Take your trailing stop and move on to the next trade, there is truly no reason to cry over spilled milk.)
  8. You are following a guru and come to realize he truly is a salesman not a trader. (You stop following gurus and look to learn how to trade you yourself.)
  9. You buy a super hot stock that you have researched for many weeks then it goes down due to a bear market. (Only trade stocks long in up-trending markets)
  10. You start trading a system that did amazing in back-testing and promptly lose 10% of your account. (You have to stick with it so it can win in the long term, you may need to make slight adjustments in position sizing or stops to account for volatility that you may have missed.)

Whatever the pain, just don’t quit, there is gold to be found in trading right over the long term.

Rules for Bear Market

1. Good news in a bear market is like smoke in the breeze (i.e., soon dispersed). Don’t buy into upgrades or analyst recommendations. Analyst “upgrades” or recommendations can kill you.Every person reading this has access to some kind of trading platform, trading tools or systems that afford instant access to the financial markets. Good news like upgrades in bear markets typically has about five minutes of fame.

 

2. Bear markets are not a time to learn how to “day trade” in an effort to recoup losses (no matter how many times you hear that “this is a traders’ market”).

 

3. Accumulation days (there may be three or more in a row) are shorting opportunities, but resist being aggressive until the S&P 500 shows a 3- and 5-day moving average bearish cross. (Remember that it’s 50% market, 25% sector and 25% stock as far as direction, but some could argue in markets it’s 75% index, 15% sector and 10% stock.)

 

4. Chart patterns (unlike ice cream) come in just two flavors: continuations and reversals. Reversal patterns mostly form in weak trends. If the trend that the market or stock you are watching has been strong, then chances are that any pause is just a consolidation before the next leg down.

 

5. There is no such thing as “safe sectors.” Sure, each bear market brings sector rotation. But make sure if you are playing this game that you don’t have the flexibility of wood. And when the music stops, quickly find a chair!

That is, you must keep a flexible mindset so that you are able to change with the markets. The best traders are those who are nimble and approach the markets without bias.

 

6. Your stop-losses are YOUR stop-losses. The pain of being down 8% in a bull market is no different than being 8% wrong in a bear. If your risk tolerance requires you stopping out at 8%, then be consistent in any market you trade, but trade “with the primary trend.”

It takes greater emotional balance to trade a bear than a bull. So, always manage your risk — just remember that, in the markets, your money is always at risk.

Great traders manage emotions and risk. This makes them great. YOU know your risk tolerance and YOU control what happens between the “keyboard and chair.”

 

7. Bear markets are generally slow-moving affairs. However, stocks in bear markets can move much faster than you think (hence the reason that volatility rises drastically). But the “time” we spend in a bear is what everyone needs to keep in perspective. Bear markets last much longer than most are willing to wait. (more…)

20 Trading Insights from Paul Tudor Jones

paultudor1. Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it.

2. I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over.

3. When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you?

4. These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the Internet, creates an illusion that there is an explanation for everything and that the primary test is simply to find that explanation. As a result, technical analysis is at the bottom of the study list for many of the younger generation, particularly since the skill often requires them to close their eyes and trust price action. The pain of gain is just too overwhelming to bear.

5. There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it.

6. Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.

7. That cotton trade was almost the deal breaker for me. It was at that point that I said, ‘Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?’

8. If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.

9. Losers average down losers

10. The concept of paying one-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE’s? (more…)

Do Stocks Fall Faster than They Rise?

Think about it1) Markets fall faster than they rise — and options traders know this. Otherwise, arbitraging this difference would be a meal for a lifetime.

2) Market participants perhaps anticipate that the realized volatility during a bear market is greater than a bull market. However, the problem with this analysis is one might expect to see an upward sloping volatility yield curve in out-of-the-money puts (during bull markets), and yet that does not usually occur based on my tests. Conversely, right now have a downward sloping yield curve in out of the money calls — which confirms the hypothesis that market participants anticipate slower price rises in the future. [Note to quants: I am not confusing delta, gamma and vega. I’m using options to predict terminal price at expiration.]

3) For most humans, fear of loss is a stronger emotion/motivator than the pleasure of gain (greed). This is well documented in the psychology and behavioral finance literature. Hence, ceterus paribus, capital market participants (who have a net long position) will, as a group, pull their rip cord faster — to flee from risk — than they will embrace the possibility of profit.

Amos Hostetter :Invaluable Trading Principles

  1. Try to find a long term trend and ride it up. Stay with the trend and don’t be tempted to grab a quick profit. Patience is one of the most important traits of a trend follower.
  2. Be careful not to be shaken out by market fluctuations. Instead try to sit tight as long as there are no warnings showing up. Prices that come back so that your initial gain halves are not necessarily a reason to sell.
  3. Big wins can only be achieved with major trends. Find them and don’t hesitate to buy at high prices when you may think it is too late. A market is never too high to buy or too low to sell.
  4. Necessary is of course a stop loss near the entry point. A stop is the easiest way to put your capital at work on a trend, because otherwise you are too often and too long stuck in a trading market which goes nowhere or worse in a falling market.
  5. Absolutely forbidden is averaging down or fighting the market trend.
  6. To think that a market is cheaper now after prices came down and therefore must offer a better chance than it did when prices were higher, will put you in the wrong stocks at the wrong times.
  7. Never try to sell at the top. The trend may continue. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.
  8. On the other hand don’t expect the market to end in a blaze of glory. Look out for warnings.
  9. Tape reading can tell you only that something is wrong. Don’t try to analyze the flow of transactions as the tape shows them in too much detail.
  10. Don’t look for breaks. Look out for warnings.
  11. Pyramid stocks only if the initial investment shows a gain.
  12. Look out for normal market behavior. If a market doesn’t act right, don’t touch it.
  13. If in a bear market a complete demoralization develops suddenly it may be a sign for a starting bull market.
  14. Observation of the market gives the best tips of all. Follow your experience to exploit them, while sticking to facts only.

Trading Wisdom

One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.

Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs.

Traders would be wise to understand there are 3 directions a market can travel; up, down or sideways. As long as we trade stocks, this will be true – and just as valuable as Livermore’s seasoned trading friend’s advice was then it would be today.

Markets, like rivers, don’t change courses overnight – or even in a few days. It often takes many months if not years to properly establish a trend. Simply pull back any weekly chart over the past couple years and assess where the trend is going. If you aren’t quite sure, then more than likely cash remains the place for you.

Understand this basic, yet key, principle of trading, and you will already be well ahead of most.

Respect the Trend

One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.

Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs. (more…)