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40 Gems for Traders and Investors

  1. There are only three kinds of investors – those who think they are geniuses, those who think they are idiots, and those who aren’t sure.
  2. One of the clearest signals that you are wrong about an investment is having the hunch that you are right about it.
  3. Investors who focus on price levels earn between five and ten times higher profits than those who pay attention to price changes.
  4. The only way to be more certain it’s true is to search harder for proof that it is false.
  5. Business value changes over time, not all the time. Stocks are like weather, altering almost continually and without warning; businesses are like the climate, changing much more gradually and predictably.
  6. When rewards are near, the brain hates to wait.
  7. The market isn’t always right, but it’s right more often than it is wrong.
  8. Often, when we are asked to judge how likely things are, we instead judge how alike they are.
  9. Most of what seem to be patterns in stock prices are just random variations.
  10. In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you’ll never learn that you should have fewer ideas. (more…)

The Pain is Unjustified

pain-I’ve always said, you don’t have to blow out an entire account before we figure out the significance of being disciplined. You don’t need to feel pain to learn that lesson. You just have to commit to the process of becoming disciplined. It poses a more fundamental question, are you willing to do what it takes to become consistently profitable?

How do we overcome this pain and impulsiveness? Through belief in a system, and a full understanding of the probabilities. You MUST embrace loss as a part of this profession, if you don’t you are in the wrong industry. Do not place another trade. This belief comes with repetitions. The belief has to be earned through proof and practice.

Before you proceed with your next trade, I want you to think about the power of your MIND. (more…)

Wisdom From Jason Zweig

  1. There are only three kinds of investors – those who think they are geniuses, those who think they are idiots, and those who aren’t sure.

  2. One of the clearest signals that you are wrong about an investment is having the hunch that you are right about it.
  3. Investors who focus on price levels earn between five and ten times higher profits than those who pay attention to price changes.
  4. The only way to be more certain it’s true is to search harder for proof that it is false.
  5. Business value changes over time, not all the time. Stocks are like weather, altering almost continually and without warning; businesses are like the climate, changing much more gradually and predictably.
  6. When rewards are near, the brain hates to wait.
  7. The market isn’t always right, but it’s right more often than it is wrong.
  8. Often, when we are asked to judge how likely things are, we instead judge how alike they are.
  9. Most of what seem to be patterns in stock prices are just random variations.
  10. In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you’ll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
  11. The more often people watch an investment heave up and down, the more likely they are to trade in and out over the short term – and the less likely they are to earn a high return over the long term.
  12. Investing is not you versus “Them”. It’s you versus you.
  13. The single greatest challenge you face as an investor is handling the truth about yourself.
  14. Hindsight bias keeps you from feeling like an idiot as you look back – but it can make you act like an idiot as you look forward.
  15. Ignorance of our own ignorance haunts our financial judgments. (more…)

5 Trading Mistakes & Destroy Yourself

  1. 5-rulesInstead of cutting a loss the trader holds it stressing over it for the rest of the day or a week. This destroys the trader’s mental capital and inflicts completely unnecessary emotional pain. The first loss it the best loss.

  2. A trader that trades their opinion instead of the price action has a lower success rate than someone who just trades price action. The vast majority of traders make money by following trends and chart patterns not their own opinion.
  3. A trader who puts on the one big trade that they think they just can’t lose on is usually the one that blows up their account. A trader must always have stops and must always manage risk regardless of their belief in any one trade.
  4. Believing that you are right about a trade and the market is wrong is a sure path to destruction. The market is always right because price is reality. How do we know when we are wrong? We lose money that is proof enough.
  5. A trader who endlessly searches for stock picks and predictions instead of  learning how to trade a robust method while managing their own mind and using risk management is doomed to failure.

     

Ten Simple Facts about OIL

Oil_barrel_standard1) Oil is priced in dollars.
2) Oil trades in Dollars and Euros right now in spite of the pricing unit being dollars. OPEC has recently admitted this fact.
3) Clearly oil does not have to be priced in Euros to trade in Euros, or for that matter priced in Yen to trade in Yen. The same applies to any major currency.
4) Neither Venezuela or Iran hold any dollar reserves. To the extent that either is taking trades in dollars, there is clearly nothing forcing them to hold dollars. By extension there is nothing forcing any OPEC country to hold dollars if it doesn’t want to.
5) It takes less than a second for Forex trades to take place. 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, one can sell any currency they want and buy any other currency.
6) The above logic applies to any currency and any commodity.
7) Nothing is stopping anyone at any time anywhere from selling dollars for whatever currency they want to hold. Nor is anything stopping anyone anywhere at any time from selling any major currency for U.S. Dollars.
8) Because currency conversion is instantaneous no one has to hold U.S. dollars to buy oil, copper, gold, iron, lead, wheat, soybeans, or anything else.
9) Dollars are held (or not held) for reasons totally unrelated to pricing unit. Some of those reasons are political, some are based on sentiment, some on trade patterns and trade relationships, and some to suppress the value of local currencies to improve exports.
10) Currencies float and so do the price of oil and commodities. Pricing oil (or any other commodity) in Euros will not cause a price change in dollars. Look at gold which is simultaneously priced in everything as proof.

Investment Wisdom

  • There are only three kinds of investors – those who think they are geniuses, those who think they are idiots, and those who aren’t sure.
  • One of the clearest signals that you are wrong about an investment is having the hunch that you are right about it.
  • Investors who focus on price levels earn between five and ten times higher profits than those who pay attention to price changes.
  • The only way to be more certain it’s true is to search harder for proof that it is false.
  • Business value changes over time, not all the time. Stocks are like weather, altering almost continually and without warning; businesses are like the climate, changing much more gradually and predictably.
  • When rewards are near, the brain hates to wait.
  • The market isn’t always right, but it’s right more often than it is wrong.
  • Often, when we are asked to judge how likely things are, we instead judge how alike they are.
  • Most of what seem to be patterns in stock prices are just random variations.
  • In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you’ll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.

Sentiment Cycle

RETURNING CONFIDENCE
On the upside, the area where churning takes place is in between the Returning Confidence phase and the Subtle Warning phase, after a significant advance has already taken place. This often appears in the form of a head and shoulders top on weekly or monthly charts. By the time confidence returns, the market has already been going up for ages while the retracement patterns become ever larger, each one scarier than the last.
To technical traders, this type of price action tells us that the market is getting tired. Perceived bull market volatility excites investors. They waited forever on the sidelines for fundamentals to confirm that the move up was ‘real’. The coast is finally clear and they jump in with both feet. This phase typically ends with a failure on test of top, and the big, super scary ‘buy the dip’ pullback begins.
BUY THE BIG DIP
The public continues to pour money in, lured by glowing good news and economic data. After the long move up, finding attractive stocks becomes difficult for technical traders and market veterans. Traders chase momentum where they find it. Investors believe that the game is back on, and they are willing to take big risk and buy big dips. This Big Dip usually comes after a failed test of top in the Returning Confidence phase. The Big Dip typically takes price below the 50-day simple moving average and quite often, to the 200-day moving average. This is where ABC Corrections are typically found.
ENTHUSIASM
Once it is widely accepted that economic and corporate fundamentals are supporting higher prices, a bell goes off. The bull survived The Big Dip. Those who had previously been afraid now have plenty of reasons – and proof – that it is safe to go back into the market and buy again.  (more…)

The Stock Market Is An "Attractive Nuisance" And Should Be Closed

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

The Stock Market Is An “Attractive Nuisance” And Should Be Closed

The dark pool of parasitic scum known as the stock market is an “attractive nuisance” that should be shut down.

In tort law, an attractive nuisance is any potentially hazardous object or condition that is likely to attract the naive and unwary, i.e. children.

A classic example is an abandoned swimming pool half-filled with fetid water.

Since many stock market investors are demonstrably naive about the risks and unwary of the dangers posed by the stock market (the proof of this is that they remain invested in the market), it is but a slight extrapolation of the attractive nuisance doctrine to declare the stock market is clearly an “attractive nuisance” and should be closed immediately.

Is this really a legal stretch? Consider the conditions that characterize an attractive nuisance. I have edited these to pertain to the stock market and investors:

1. The market is one in which the Powers That Be (the exchanges, the Central State, the central bank, et al., the effective “owners” of the stock market) know or have reason to know that brainwashed or ill-informed investors are likely to risk their money in.

2. The market is one of which the Powers That Be know or have reason to know (and fully realize or should realize) will involve an unreasonable risk of financial loss or ruin to such investors.

3. The investors, because of their consumption of officially sanctioned propaganda and misrepresentation of market risk and return, do not discover or realize the risk involved in placing money in the stock market. (more…)