rss

EVOLUTION, MORPHEUS, EVOLUTION

Think of the following logic chain:

  • Error Data (Mistakes + Weaknesses) = Constructive Feedback
  • Constructive Feedback = Opportunity to Analyze and Refine
  • Analyzing and Refining = Incremental Improvement
  • Incremental Improvement = Micro-Evolution
  • Micro-Evolution over extended time cycles = Macro-Evolution
  • Macro-Evolution = Smarter, Faster, Deeper, Stronger
  • Smarter, Faster, Deeper, Stronger = DOMINATE

To approach from another angle:

  • Natural evolution = serendipitous impact of randomly distributed trial and error
  • Accelerated evolution = guided impact of shaped and observed trial and error
  • Trial and error = experimentation, hypothesis, “useful failures” etc
  • Which cycles back around to errors, weaknesses etc as “Constructive Feedback”

Don't Get Trapped

1) Anchoring trap. The mind gives a disproportionate amount of weight to the first information received on a topic. Keeping an open mind and avoiding premature conclusions is a way to avoid this trap.

2) Status quo trap. Forecasts tend to perpetuate recent observations. If inflation has been high, it is expected to remain high. It is a psychological risk to assume something different. The authors suggest rational analysis within decision-making to avoid falling into this trap.

3) Confirming evidence trap. Individuals give greater weight to information that supports an existing point of view. Being honest to oneself about one’s motives, examining all evidence with equal rigor, and enlisting independent-minded people to argue against you are ways of mitigating this bias.

4) Overconfidence trap. Individuals overestimate the accuracy of their forecasts. Widening the range of expected possible outcomes is one way to mitigate this tendency.

5) Prudence trap. There is a tendency to temper forecasts that appear extreme. If a forecast turns out to be extreme and then wrong, it could be damaging to one’s career. Therefore, sticking to the herd is safer. The authors again suggest widening the range of expected possible forecasts to avoid falling into this trap.

6) Recallability trap. Individuals are overly influenced by events that have left a strong impression on a person’s memory. These events tend to be catastrophic or dramatic. To avoid falling into this trap, individuals should ground their conclusions in objective data rather than emotion or memories.

Responsible Choice for Traders

Responsibility as a trader means a lot of different things. As a psychologist, I like to talk about being “responsible” for ones’ owns emotions – identifying and accepting them, and being responsible for our decisions. Too many traders blame the market or some unseen force that manipulates the market and causes their loss. Whether or not such unseen forces exist isn’t really the issue, or even the reason that keeps traders from making money. It’s a convenient excuse, but not much else.

A useful concept for traders is a concept known as Responsible Choice, defined as choices that create consequences for which you are willing to assume full responsibility. The phrase, “responsible choice” comes from Gary Zukav, a man who has covered a lot of ground in his life; former Special Forces officer in Vietnam, Harvard grad, wrote the best selling physics book, “The Dancing Wu Li Masters”, and now a consciousness expert.  A friend of mine is very good friends with him.

Fully accepting whatever happens in a well-planned trade is the hallmark of a successful trader. A trader with a mind-set that operates with the concept of responsible choice will see loss simply as an unproductive trade, not as a personal attack.  Moreover, they will see the loss as a learning opportunity, gathering market information from the loss and possibly adjusting their perspective on the market.

Using the framework of responsible choice, a trading loss is actually empowering.  If a trader has difficulty accepting losses, or accepting whatever happens (e.g. not reaching target or overshooting target after the trade is closed) the psychological experience of empowerment is elusive and the trader will usually swing to the other side of the spectrum and become frustrated. Obviously, there is a lot more to be said about losses, I just wanted to point out the concept of responsible choice as a framework to be considered.

Questions after the hit

When you take a hit, you have got to think your way through it logically.

Questions to ask yourself when you have taken a hit.

What is the lesson here???

What did I learn????

How can I avoid this next time????

What is my strategy the next time I encounter this situation????

Did I remember to pat myself on the back for the good trades this month?????

Did I remind myself that I have had many more successes this month??????

Did I remind myself that this is just an opportunity to do it better next time?????

Did I use proper discipline????????

Did I wait for a proper trade set-up??????

Did I follow my trading rules????????

How long am I going to wallow here???????

Did I remind myself that the market is very generous and will always give me plenty of opportunities for profit???????

Do I have more money now than I did at the beginning of the month???? (more…)

Go to top