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Cognitive Biases That Affect Traders

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Humans have weaknesses that hamper their trading capabilities. Many were developed in ancient times and were important for survival. I will enumerate the most important:
1) Loss Aversion: the strong tendency for people to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains

2) Sunk Cost Effect: The tendency to treat money that already has been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent in the future

3) Disposition Effect: the tendency for people to lock in gains and ride losses

4) Outcome Bias: The tendency to judge a decision by its outcome rather then by the quality of the decision at the time it was made

5) Recency Bias: the tendency to weigh recent data or experience more than earlier data or experience

6) Anchoring: the tendency to rely too heavily, or anchor, on readily available information (more…)

How independent minded are you?

Winning traders go their own way. They don’t follow the crowd. They are independent minded. How independent minded are you? Here’s a short 10-item quiz to help you determine your tendency to think independently.

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  1. Do you feel uneasy when you think that others don’t like you?
  2. Do you care what others think?
  3. While growing up, did you do what was expected of you?
  4. When making important decisions, do you seek out the opinions of others? (more…)

LOSING MONEY WITH METAPHORS

Freud’s psychiatric conclusions have largely been discredited but he rightly maintains praise for understanding the central role of metaphor and narrative in human thought. Professor Cowen HERE, is only the latest to build on this theme although importantly, he concentrates on the negative, blinding aspects of the tendency. Nowhere is this more clear than in the “stories” that surround investments.

Choosing a metaphor presupposes a conclusion. For instance, there’s no way to hear “the Chinese economy is a bubble” without unconsciously associating the country’s outlook with fragility and inevitable disappearance of a soap bubble. If we describe China’s GDP as similar to a hot air balloon on the other hand, our subconscious will immediately become more suceptible to the argument that upcoming government stimulus will right the economic ship. (You see what I did there – the use of the word “ship” is insidious.)

Good metaphors are a double-edged sword and their ubiquity in stock pitches suggests investors remain on their guard, never accepting one outright no matter how successfully it seems to communicates the situation.

Trading Notes for Traders

Traders should work on replacing subjectivity with cut and dry analysis.

Keep yourself in a box and stick with what you know.

The markets are complicated enough without our tendency to over analyze.  All a trader needs is to learn how to read a small number of indicators and trade them well.  Find a niche; your own niche. Simplification not complication makes a successful trader.

When contemplating a trade think first and foremost about how much you are willing to lose before you attempt to calculate your expected gain.

A stock is, at any given time, in the process of testing a specific price level.

Questions that make a trading decision valid:  WHY are you considering a trade? WHEN will you enter it? WHERE do you see it going?

Multiple time frame correlation is important for high probability trades.

Let the chart tell you its story.

OBEY your rules of engagement…ALWAYS.

Be well paid to be a follower.

Loss of mental capital (drive, will, confidence) is greater than loss of monetary capital.

Let the price action CONFIRM your trade analysis.  Example: let a break-out test the break-out first.

Trading Errors:  The “Fudge” Factor

1. Trying to catch a falling knife.

2. Picking Tops

3. Failure to wait for confirmation.

4. Lack of patience.

5.  Lack of a clear strategy.

6. Failure to assume responsibility.

7.  Failure to quantify risk.

10 Keys to become Consistent Trader and increase your Profitability

  1. Think of trading as a business and have a trading plan.
  2. Make sure that the strategies you select, match your personality so you can follow them.
  3. Have a realistic expectation of what your returns are. Include all the costs associated with your trading business.
  4. Have an idea for your risk/reward ratio. Don’t confuse trading with gambling. If you are increasing your position, make sure that your strategy warrants it.
  5. Have trading rules and follow them. Think about them as contingency plans. Because when your emotions are very high, the tendency is that you make very poor decisions that can cost you your account!
  6. Be flexible to the market conditions. When you see the market as it is, you have a much better chance of managing your portfolio and increasing your profits.
  7. Take responsibility for your results. Taking responsibility does not mean that you have control of everything that happens. It means that you have a choice of how to react to the things that happen.
  8. Find out why you are in the trading business. If it is for the excitement of it, find other hobbies or activities that you can get your excitement from.
  9. Keep track of your performance. This is a way of objectively looking at how you are doing, what you did right and what you learned. Be gentle with yourself.
  10. One of the most important things that people don’t handle is their Emotional Risk. When emotions run high, the quality of decisions goes down. It is very important to learn how to react to your emotions and thus increase your profits.

36 Steps To Becoming A Better Trader

1. We accumulate information – buying books, going to seminars and researching.
2. We begin to trade with our ‘new’ knowledge.
3. We consistently ‘donate’ and then realise we may need more knowledge or information.
4. We accumulate more information.
5. We switch the commodities we are currently following.
6. We go back into the market and trade with our ‘updated’ knowledge.
7. We get ‘beat up’ again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.
8. We start to listen to ‘outside news’ and to other traders.
9. We go back into the market and continue to ‘donate’.
10. We switch commodities again.
11. We search for more information.
12. We go back into the market and start to see a little progress.
13. We get ‘over-confident’ and the market humbles us.
14. We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge than we anticipated.

MOST PEOPLE WILL GIVE UP AT THIS POINT, AS THEY REALISE WORK IS INVOLVED.

15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a ‘real’ methodology.
16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realise that something is missing.
17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but over all we still hesitate when we execute.
20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
21. We feel we are very close to crossing that threshold of successful trading.
22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the methodology.
23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are still erratic.
25. We know we are close.
26. We go back and research our rules.
27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don’t follow the rules.
30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
32. We master our methodology and our trading rules.
33. We begin to consistently make money.
34. We get a little over-confident and the market humbles us.
35. We continue to learn our lessons.
36. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.

Trade to win

“If a betting game among a certain number of participants is played long enough, eventually one player will have all the money. If there is any skill involved, it will accelerate the process of concentrating all the stakes in a few hands. Something like this happens in the market. There is a persistent overall tendency for equity to flow from the many to the few. In the long run, the majority loses. The implication for the trader is that to win you have to act like the minority. If you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you’ll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose.”

A GLASS OF WATER

A young lady confidently walked around the room with a raised glass of water while leading and explaining stress management to an audience.  Everyone just knew she was going to ask the oft repeated question, ‘half empty or half full?’   But she fooled them all…

“How heavy is this glass of water?” she inquired with a smile.

Answers called out ranged from 8 oz. to 20 oz.

She replied, “The absolute weight doesn’t matter. It depends on how long I hold it. If I hold it for a minute, that’s not a problem. If I hold it for an hour, I’ll have an ache in my right arm. If I hold it for a day, you’ll have to call an ambulance. In each case it’s the same weight,but the longer I hold it, the heavier it becomes.”  She continued, “and that’s the way it is with stress. If we carry our burdens all the time sooner or later, as the burden becomes increasingly heavy, we won’t be able to carry on.”

“As with the glass of water, you have to put it down for a while and rest before holding it again. When we’re refreshed, we can carry on with the burden – holding stress longer and better each time practiced. So, as early in the evening as you can, put all your burdens down.  Don’t carry them through the evening and into the night… pick them up tomorrow. Whatever burdens you’re carrying now, let them down for a moment. Relax, pick them up later after you’ve rested. Life is short.” (more…)

Don't Get Trapped

1) Anchoring trap. The mind gives a disproportionate amount of weight to the first information received on a topic. Keeping an open mind and avoiding premature conclusions is a way to avoid this trap.

2) Status quo trap. Forecasts tend to perpetuate recent observations. If inflation has been high, it is expected to remain high. It is a psychological risk to assume something different. The authors suggest rational analysis within decision-making to avoid falling into this trap.

3) Confirming evidence trap. Individuals give greater weight to information that supports an existing point of view. Being honest to oneself about one’s motives, examining all evidence with equal rigor, and enlisting independent-minded people to argue against you are ways of mitigating this bias.

4) Overconfidence trap. Individuals overestimate the accuracy of their forecasts. Widening the range of expected possible outcomes is one way to mitigate this tendency.

5) Prudence trap. There is a tendency to temper forecasts that appear extreme. If a forecast turns out to be extreme and then wrong, it could be damaging to one’s career. Therefore, sticking to the herd is safer. The authors again suggest widening the range of expected possible forecasts to avoid falling into this trap.

6) Recallability trap. Individuals are overly influenced by events that have left a strong impression on a person’s memory. These events tend to be catastrophic or dramatic. To avoid falling into this trap, individuals should ground their conclusions in objective data rather than emotion or memories.

7 Different common emotional mistakes:

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1. Emotional bias: the tendency to believe the things that make you feel good and to disregard things that make you feel bad. In trading terms, this means ignoring the bad news and focusing on the good news. It’s called losing objectivity; you don’t recognise when things go wrong because you don’t want to.

2. Expectation bias: the tendency to believe in things that you expect. In financial terms this means not bothering to analyse, test, measure or doubt the conclusion you expect or hope for. It is also known as the law of small numbers – believing in something with little real evidence.

3. The disposition effect: the tendency to cut your profits and let your losses run – the opposite of what a trader should be doing. Making small profits and big losses is a recipe for disaster.

4. Loss aversion: the tendency to value the avoidance of loss more highly than the making of gain. (more…)