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Archives of “February 9, 2019” day
rssTwo Emotions
Two emotions that plague the inexperienced trader are Anticipated Loss and Buyers Remorse.
Does your trading life go something like this? You see a trade line up, and suddenly a cramp in your solar plexus appears as you anticipate a possible loss. You put this down to simple fear and make an effort to mentally overcome this internal barricade so as to enter the trade. Acting quickly so as not to miss out, you swiftly enter the position and your trading platform indicates that you are filled. Now you are gripped by the sensation of buyers remorse – too late to back out now… A small voice in the back of your subconscious says “what have I done?”
To your great delight and surprise, the trade soon goes in your favour, and for a while you feel a warm fuzzy glow and give yourself a little compliment, but soon the old feeling returns in the form of a hot flush. Anticipated loss is back again as you worry about the market turning against you and taking away the profit you now have. (more…)
Jesse Livermore: Original Trend Follower and Great Trader
The unofficial biography of Jesse Livermore was Reminiscences of a Stock Operator published 1923. Below are selected quotes:
- Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
- I told you I had ten thousand dollars when I was twenty, and my margin on that Sugar deal was over ten thousand. But I didn’t always win. My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener than it lost. If I had stuck to it I’d have been right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times. In fact, I have always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game- that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily- or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.
- It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
- There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!
- I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, Well, you know this is a bull market! he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements- that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
- The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.
- ?the average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think. It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground.
- To tell you about the first of my million dollar mistakes I shall have to go back to this time when I first became a millionaire, right after the big break of October, 1907. As far as my trading went, having a million merely meant more reserves. Money does not give a trader more comfort, because, rich or poor, he can make mistakes and it is never comfortable to be wrong. And when a millionaire is right his money is merely one of his several servants. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong- not taking the loss- that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
- What I have told you gives you the essence of my trading system as based on studying the tape. I merely learn the way prices are most probably going to move. I check up my own trading by additional tests, to determine the psychological moment. I do that by watching the way the price acts after I begin.
- Of all speculative blunders there are few worse than trying to average a losing game. My cotton deal proved it to the hilt a little later. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit. That was so obviously the wise thing to do and was so well known to me that even now I marvel at myself for doing the reverse.
- The loss of the money didn’t bother me. Whenever I have lost money in the stock market I have always considered that I have learned something; that if I have lost money I have gained experience, so that the money really went for a tuition fee. A man has to have experience and he has to pay for it.
- In booms, which is when the public is in the market in the greatest numbers, there is never any need of subtlety, so there is no sense of wasting time discussing either manipulation or speculation during such times; it would be like trying to find the difference in raindrops that are falling synchronously on the same roof across the street. The sucker has always tried to get something for nothing, and the appeal in all booms is always frankly to the gambling instinct aroused by cupidity and spurred by a pervasive prosperity. People who look for easy money invariably pay for the privelege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this sordid earth. At first, when I listened to the accounts of old-time deals and devices I used to think that people were more gullible in the 1860’s and 70’s than in the 1900’s. But I was sure to read in the newspapers that very day or the next something about the latest Ponzi or the bust-up of some bucketing broker and about the millions of sucker money gone to join the silent majority of vanished savings.
- There are men whose gait is far quicker than the mob’s. They are bound to lead- no matter how much the mob changes.
My Trading Lessons for Traders
Read….When ever you are Free.
Prepare, be confident & be decisive
Follow my trading rules without exception
Plan every trade with profit exit, stop exit and risk/reward ranking
Trade only when you have time AND you have an edge
Formulate and write down a trading/investing plan
Exit a position at my stops and not “hope” it will recover tomorrow
Trade the market I actually see, not the one I think I will see
Focus more on what’s actually happening rather than what I wish would happen
Learn to prevent my skepticism and opinion over the economy from keeping me from making good trades
Have a plan every day to trade the market and to not let my opinions of the market interfere with my trading
Concentrate on rule based trade management and not the outcome of the specific trade
Follow price action as opposed to listening to the fundamental “experts”
Listen to the market signal rather than market noise
Don’t be afraid of making mistakes
To pay more attention to technical signals to determine purchase/sell points rather than emotion & personal reasoning
Have more confidence in my trade ideas and believe in myself more often
Do not have a bias but instead let the charts be the guide
Have the discipline and fortitude to stick to my trade plans
To improve my organization of stock lists and automation of stock alerts
Do not over-leverage
Select only the most favorable setups
Try not to over analyze every potential trade
Lose less when I am wrong
Spend less time reading words and more time reading charts
Stick with winners and sell the losers
Allocate 2-3 hours each day & 5 hours every weekend to finding attractive setups
Increase position size and be in the market more (more…)
This cycle plays out on many time frames for traders
Life in India
Does the Stock Market Care Who the President Is?
Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems-Kevin J. Davey :Book Review
On balance expert systems trump human experts, hence the drive to make trading more systematic and mechanical. The problem is that Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems, the title of Kevin J. Davey’s new book (Wiley, 2014), can be tough. Davey recounts his sometimes gut-wrenching journey “from data mining to Monte Carlo simulation to live trading” and provides traders with useful information that will help them avoid his mistakes.
The author joins a rather small fraternity of systems developers who have shared their thoughts, for better or worse, with the reading public. I think here—and this list is in no way meant to be exhaustive—of Howard Bandy (Quantitative Trading Systems), Tushar Chande (Beyond Technical Analysis), Urban Jaekle and Emilio Tomasini (Trading Systems), Perry Kaufman (Trading Systems and Methods), Robert Pardo (The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies), and Thomas Stridsman (Trading Systems That Work).
The strength of Davey’s book is that it covers the entire process of designing, developing, testing, trading, and monitoring a system. It also includes Easy Language code for three sample strategies, and on the password-protected companion website (the password is given in the book) there are five helpful spreadsheets.
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Money-Mind-Method
Mind: The key to winning is inside the Mind. As Master of your mind, you have to manage and understand your emotions very well. It is extremely important to understand not just the individual’s psychology, but also the crowd psychology of the markets. To become a successful trader, you must have sheer perseverance and discipline.
Method: There is no Holy Grail in the search for the perfect method to trade. Follow the wisdom of ‘Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan’. A good trading plan should cover your entry, exit and position sizing requirements. My method consists of discretionary trading techniques that combine both fundamental and technical analysis, in addition to my own proprietary automated trading system. Coming up with a good trading plan requires lots of market experience, as you modify, conquer and solidify your trading techniques. Don’t be duped by charming salesmen selling get-rich-quick-without-effort secret recipes.
Money: Overall profit/loss depends on money management. The first goal of money management is capital preservation. If you lose 10% of your capital, you have to make 11% just to break even. If you lose 40%, you need to make 67%, and if you lose 50%, guess what? You have to make 100% just to recover! So before you think about making big money, first you got to think about not risking your capital unnecessarily. Money management is too important to be overlooked.
Nuggets
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