UK think tank, NIESR, comments on the UK economy
- Sees unemployment rate hitting almost 10% this year due to “premature” end to the government’s furlough program
- Says government is making a mistake by cutting furlough program in October
- Says that increases the risks of economic scarring
- Forecasts UK economy to shrink by 10.1% in 2020, before growing by 6.1% in 2021
That is one take on the whole situation but if the health crisis gets worse in the coming months, who is to say that the UK government would not use that as an excuse to keep the furlough program running until the year-end.
For now, a lot about UK economic data – especially in relation to the labour market – is largely masked by the fact that the government’s furlough program is in place.
We will only get a better idea of how the economy is standing on its own two feet once the program expires. Things may be looking “good” for now but should there be substantial layoffs to come, it could lead to a bigger hit to the economy down the road.
The Richest Man in Babylon is a great little personal finance book set as an ancient fictional tale that explains the ‘The Seven Cures to a Lean Purse’ and ‘The Five Rules of Gold’.
The Seven Cures to a Lean Purse:
- Start thy purse to fattening. Pay yourself first. Save money before you pay any bills.
- Control thy expenditures. Don’t spend every penny you make or you will be broke no matter how high your income becomes.
- Make thy gold multiply. Invest capital in assets that go up in value.
- Guard thy treasures from loss. Your number one priority is to keep your investment capital safe from loss.
- Make of thy dwelling a profitable investment. Buy a home in the right location as a hedge against inflation and to create equity and ownership over the long term.
- Insure a future income. Convert your earned income into assets that can create future case flow.
- Increase thy ability to earn. Grow your earning power through education, building skills, gaining experience in a field, or promotions to higher levels of responsibility.
The Five Laws of Gold:
- Gold cometh gladly and in increasing quantity to any man who will put by not less than one-tenth of his earnings to create an estate for his future and that of his family. Save 10% of your income each time you are paid and convert it to investment capital.
- Gold laboreth diligently and contentedly for the wise owner who finds for it profitable employment, multiplying even as the flocks of the field. Invest your capital for growth and compounding.
- Gold clingeth to the protection of the cautious owner who invests it under the advice of men wise in its handling. Find a successful model or system to copy for investing your money.
- Gold slippeth away from the man who invests it in businesses or purposes with which he is not familiar or which are not approved by those skilled in its keep. Never put money in something you don’t fully understand.
- Gold flees the man who would force it to impossible earnings or who followeth the alluring advice of tricksters and schemers or who trusts it to his own inexperience and romantic desires in investment. This fastest way to go broke is to try to get rich quick.
Just about every new trader who launches into trading before doing the proper homework ends up ‘blowing up their account’ which is generally considered suffering a 50% or greater draw down from their original equity starting point. Some of the signs of being in danger is just trading your opinion with no regard to finding a proven methodology to trade. New traders in danger have no trading plan, no understanding of risk/reward ratios or even more importantly the odds of their own risk of ruin based on their position sizing and capital at risk in every trade. They also have no idea of what their advantage is over all other participants, they have no edge. The main angle of their trading is simply their own unwarranted belief in their own cleverness. Danger! Danger! This random trading is pure gambling and we know how few gamblers leave the casino with their winnings.
Many new traders, even many of the greatest legends of trading initially blow up their accounts, learn many lessons and do come back and win. Here are the 10 lessons that enable many losing traders to come back in the game and end up with six figure accounts or even millions from some simple changes in strategy.
Risk no more than 1% of your total trading capital per trade. Use stop losses from your initial entry.
- Only enter a trade when you believe that the profit potential is much greater than the down side based on historical performance.
- Learn to read what a chart is saying, trade the actual chart action not your own beliefs.
- Create a defined trading plan listing what you will do before the trading day begins, position sizing, entry points, risk per trade, your watch list, etc.
- Discipline yourself to follow the plan you create.
- Trade a size you are comfortable with, one that does not bring in strong emotions that distort your trading.
- Treat all your capital as your money, do not get reckless with ‘the houses money’ after some nice wins.
- Be a smart trader not a random gambler. Treat trading like a business.
- Quit believing stocks are too high or too low, stocks are at all time highs or lows for a reason and tend to continual on that path.
- Trade with the trend because you do not have a crystal ball.
- Have a strong faith in your ability as a trader AFTER you have done your homework.
- Develop complete confidence in your trading methodology AFTER you have researched historical performance. (more…)
The unofficial biography of Jesse Livermore was Reminiscences of a Stock Operator published 1923. Below are selected quotes:
- Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
- I told you I had ten thousand dollars when I was twenty, and my margin on that Sugar deal was over ten thousand. But I didn’t always win. My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener than it lost. If I had stuck to it I’d have been right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times. In fact, I have always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game- that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily- or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.
- It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
- There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!
- I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, Well, you know this is a bull market! he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements- that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
- The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.
- ?the average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think. It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground.
- To tell you about the first of my million dollar mistakes I shall have to go back to this time when I first became a millionaire, right after the big break of October, 1907. As far as my trading went, having a million merely meant more reserves. Money does not give a trader more comfort, because, rich or poor, he can make mistakes and it is never comfortable to be wrong. And when a millionaire is right his money is merely one of his several servants. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong- not taking the loss- that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
- What I have told you gives you the essence of my trading system as based on studying the tape. I merely learn the way prices are most probably going to move. I check up my own trading by additional tests, to determine the psychological moment. I do that by watching the way the price acts after I begin.
- Of all speculative blunders there are few worse than trying to average a losing game. My cotton deal proved it to the hilt a little later. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit. That was so obviously the wise thing to do and was so well known to me that even now I marvel at myself for doing the reverse.
- The loss of the money didn’t bother me. Whenever I have lost money in the stock market I have always considered that I have learned something; that if I have lost money I have gained experience, so that the money really went for a tuition fee. A man has to have experience and he has to pay for it.
- In booms, which is when the public is in the market in the greatest numbers, there is never any need of subtlety, so there is no sense of wasting time discussing either manipulation or speculation during such times; it would be like trying to find the difference in raindrops that are falling synchronously on the same roof across the street. The sucker has always tried to get something for nothing, and the appeal in all booms is always frankly to the gambling instinct aroused by cupidity and spurred by a pervasive prosperity. People who look for easy money invariably pay for the privelege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this sordid earth. At first, when I listened to the accounts of old-time deals and devices I used to think that people were more gullible in the 1860’s and 70’s than in the 1900’s. But I was sure to read in the newspapers that very day or the next something about the latest Ponzi or the bust-up of some bucketing broker and about the millions of sucker money gone to join the silent majority of vanished savings.
- There are men whose gait is far quicker than the mob’s. They are bound to lead- no matter how much the mob changes.
Some elegant education. Some work better than others but they’re all lovely.
“The art of art, the glory of expression and the sunshine of the light of letters, is simplicity.” ~ Walt Whitman
Life is simple; we only make it complex. We spend our lives unconsciously covering our authenticity with outer identity until at some point we begin wondering “where everything went wrong.” But the tragedy for many people is that the wondering never begins and life’s simple beauty is not rediscovered.
I use the word “rediscovered” because you already know that life can be simple because you experienced it as a child. If you are normal, you spent much of your life since then trying to become something other than yourself. But normal is not healthy; success in the unreal world means failure in the real one.
The power and virtue of simplicity is a universal truth; it’s wisdom applies to all areas of life. What are some ways you can declutter, simplify and return to your authentic Self? Here are a few ideas that can help.
- Instead of finding new things to add to your life, find things to remove.
- If you want to increase income, decrease expenses.
- Do less thinking and do more wondering.
- Turn down the noise.
- Go to the woods.
- Listen to a child. (more…)
How much time do you spend each week practicing trading-specific skills, obtaining feedback about your performance, and consciously working on improving your performance?
Do your trading results reveal a positively sloped learning curve? What specific skills have you learned–and do you employ–over the past year that have made you a better trader?
“Money and women. They’re two of the strongest things in the world. The things you do for a woman you wouldn’t do for anything else. Same with money.”
A World Bank report today presented a disappointing picture of student-learning in South Asian countries including India, saying much of what is taught is “procedural” or rote-based.
The study, which was the first comprehensive analysis on performance of South Asian educational systems said “many South Asian teachers barely know more than their students”.
“Students are poorly prepared in practical competencies such as measurement, problem-solving and writing of meaningful and grammatically-correct sentences,” the report said.
It said that one quarter to one third of those who graduate from primary schools lack basic numeracy and literacy skills that would enable them to further their education.
Strongly recommending raising teacher quality, the report cited surveys conducted in India and Pakistan, showing that teachers perform poorly in math and language tests based on the curriculum they are supposed to teach.
“Higher and clear standards must be enforced, absenteeism curbed and non-merit-based promotions halted,” it suggested. (more…)