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You are Accountable

  
  Education
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Traders like to think that they only need to be accountable to themselves in order to get the best out of their trading. But it has been my experience that most traders fail miserably at this task.  So why are traders not able to do this?

They do not want to:

  • Be wrong
  • Admit that they are changing their rules
  • Face up to the fact that they do not have good rules
  • Realize that they need psychological help
  • Realize that they do not have what it takes

If you are committed to doing whatever it takes to follow your rules to reach a higher level of profit, you should consider asking someone to help you with this task if you are not doing a good job of it yourself.

Who could take on the role of a trader’s accountability?

  • A significant other
  • A friend
  • A trading buddy
  • A teacher
  • A coach

What would a person need to help you be more accountable?

  • A clearly defined set of rules from you
  • Your commitment to telling the truth to them
  • An accounting of the trades you took
  • Why you think the trades you took were good opportunities
  • The risk/reward ratios before the trade
  • The money management procedure you followed
  • Whether or not you followed your rules
  • The lessons you learned
  • And at the four month periodical review, the changes you would make and why

Reward or punishment

There should be a clearly defined predetermined punishment or reward that both of you agree upon for not following your rules.  Here are some examples of punishments or rewards to consider.

Punishment

  • No trading the rest of the day
  • Walk around the block before taking the next trade
  • Twenty push ups
  • Limit the size of your trades for the rest of the week

Rewards (more…)

Steel Ingots :Honeymoon over ?

  
Analysis, Education
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Just refresh your memory and see in my last update on 23rd March ,I had written about Steel Ingots.

Just click here

From 28040 it skyrockted to 29650 level.

(What else u want in life ? )

After Hitting a high of 29650,Correction started.

-In just 5 sessions crashed to 27830 level.

Now ,What to expect ?

After Looking at weekly chart it looks that 27716 is crucial support.

                                                              

-Yes ,This is the major support !

-Three Consecutive close +Weekly close below this level will create another round of panic.

-Nonstop slide upto 26556-26169 not ruled out.

-Any Rise ,Any Revival…Sell Sell Sell.

I will update more to our Subscribers.

–Yes ,Gone short below 28950 and minted great money in 3 sessions itself.

Updated at 6:44/08th April/Baroda

Probability in Trading

  
Analysis, Education
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The indulgence of probability

Probability in day trading is an extremely flexible and equally subjective authority. It is one such aspect that provides for a comprehensive room in terms of making decisions and analysing the potential effects of the decision as well. It can be envisioned as a semi-mechanical process which is based on an automated system comprising of various probabilities that depict two possible results at the end of it all.

Application of the laws of probability to determine market curve

The laws of probability are majorly applied to the stock market arena in speculating the growth curve. One of the most common examples is the influence of present growth on a stock. For instance the laws of probability in stock market confers to the fact that a stock is expected to underperform following an adverse growth session since major players tend to reap in the benefits without further risk involvement.

The substantial loss is incurred since major proportions of the people seemingly think alike and want to either cash out with the profits they have made or simply by virtue of the fear of losing money. Either way the scenario is completely structured owing to the presumptuous thinking of the common people and the misguiding statistical analysis with probability at its core.

It is therefore easily understandable that probability plays a comprehensive role at the crux of shaping the stock market manoeuvres. Probability in day trading is completely speculative yet self-induced as well. In an easier and subtle language it can be envisioned as a pseudo element that helps to shape the movements. It is significantly a common entity that is extensively present at the back of the mind in each trader.  

Probability based trading (more…)

Just Manage Your Luck

  
  Education
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  • You absolutely must have an edge. In the short run, you can get lucky and make money doing something that has no edge, but expected value will catch up with you. Don’t gloss over this point, because it might just be the single most important thing we can say about trading–you have to have an edge. 
  • You must be consistent. You must trade with discipline. Nearly everyone who writes anything about trading says these things, but the why is important: you must be consistent because the market is so random. You cannot change your approach based on short-term results because those short term results are confounded by the level of noise in the market. In other words, you can lose doing the right thing and make money doing the wrong thing. Too many traders make adjustments based on evaluating a handful of trades, and this is likely a serious (fatal) error. See point 1: have an edge, and, now, apply that edge with consistent discipline. Markets are random; you don’t have to be.
  • Luck matters. There’s no denying that, but so does skill and so does edge. In fact, the more skillful you are as a trader, paradoxically, the more luck matters.  (See Mauboussin book and video link near the end of this post.) You can be successful without luck, but the wildly successful traders (who are outliers) always have some significant component of luck. If the overall level of investment skill in the market is rising (far from a certain conclusion, in my opinion), then performance will converge and luck will play a bigger part for the top performers.
  • If you understand the part luck plays in your results, you will realize that emotional reactions to your results are largely inappropriate. Yes, that sentence sounds like something a Vulcan (from Star Trek) would say, but it’s true. Too many traders ride the emotional roller coaster from euphoria to depression based on their short term results, and this really doesn’t make sense because you’re letting luck (random fluctuation) jerk your emotions around. (It is worth considering, though, that this works for some traders and may actually help their performance.)

Just follow these Trading Rules

  
  Education
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  followtherules

 Stops – a stop price must be in place at all times for all positions.

 Balance – this one is the hardest of all to define, but because it is impossible to know with certainty the future direction of the market, a balance between bullish and bearish positions is the most prudent. In addition, if you are heavily weighted either bullish or bearish, and if the market moves strongly in your favor intraday, you should consider taking on a large opposite day-trade position for “insurance” profits in case that intraday move reverses. 

Freshness – positions should be regularly refreshed for the sake of updated stops. This is especially important when the market has moved in your direction a meaningful amount so that you can lock in some profits with tighter stops.

Emotional Awareness – use emotional awareness to your advantage, understanding fear often accompanies reversals in your favor and hubris often accompanies reversals against your positions.

Exits – the only acceptable exit is either being stopped out of a position or reaching a target price which has a clear technical rationale, and even in cases of the latter, partial exits are preferable to outright closes. (more…)

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