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Hypothesis of the day

Hypothesis I thought of the other day daydreaming:

A test of lows or highs is similar to how when you break up with a lover you always go back for a second try to probe to see if you made the right decision. Both parties are usually willing (bulls/bears and man/woman or etc/etc. If test falls short, low/high rejection a new trend is formed or new high/low is formed and trend is resumed. If two partners give it a second try either their relationship moves to new deeper levels of intimacy or they split up and look for new partners.

Of course break out failures and failed failures happen, but at least the scenarios can be confined to a limited set of outcomes.

Pepsi To Cease Advertising

‘We Know It’s Good, And That’s Enough’ Says CEO
Pepsi-To-R_article
PURCHASE, NY—PepsiCo sent shockwaves through the carbonated beverage industry Monday when the multibillion dollar corporation announced that it would cease all advertising of its popular soda product, effective immediately.

“We know it’s good, and everyone’s pretty happy with the overall taste, so why spend all our time worrying about what other people think?” PepsiCo CEO Indra K. Nooyi told reporters during a press conference at the company’s corporate headquarters. “Frankly, it just feels sort of weird and desperate to put all this energy into telling people what to drink. If they don’t like it, then they don’t like it.”

Added Nooyi, “That’s not really any of our business anyway.”

According to Nooyi, top PepsiCo brass held a series of meetings over the past several months before unanimously agreeing Monday that they all enjoyed Pepsi, and that the company’s century-old history of massive, high-budget ad campaigns, cross-promotional tie-ins, merchandising, and Super Bowl halftime extravaganzas had been “a big mistake.” (more…)

The Top 5%

The largest academic study ever conducted on day trading shows that most traders lose money …. even during a bull market. Only 5% of active traders were able to earn significant profits two years in a row.

Are 95% of traders dumb? Hardly. As a trading coach for more than a decade, I believe  traders are among the intelligent and motivated individuals.

Even so, most traders get fooled by news or price action and behave in ways that limit or erase profits.

Is this self-sabotage? Fear of success? A hidden wish to fail? I don’t think so. The struggles of most traders arise for a different reason: the trading environment turns our own reward-seeking and self-protective instincts against us.

Trading for a living is harder than it seems at first. You were probably not mentally or  emotionally prepared for the randomness in the market you trade.

There is a saying that goes: “Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.” In trading, however, it’s the very definition of normal. Let me explain.

We constantly get tricked and trapped due to random price action. Our job as traders is to behave consistently and predictably in the face of very different results than we expect. This is a skill few have practiced in daily life, where results are more directly linked to action.

 

Mix It Up A Little

Does boredom cause you to do silly things? If so, you’re certainly not alone.

More and more I see traders make simple mistakes primarily because they are bored with what they are doing NOT because they don’t know what they’re doing.

Contrary to popular opinion, traders and investors often do get bored. I know I certainly have. After all, if you’re doing it correctly, good trading and investing should be both boring and routine. If that’s not the case for you, it probably is because you’re either trading far too aggressively (i.e. the gambler) and/or you have no risk management skills whatsoever.

In my experience, most humans and including those of us who are very disciplined and focused, will from time to time seriously crave to change things up a little. No one, including me, likes to do exactly what they need and should do every day. Most of you are no different than me. The problem is that when we both get bored, very bad things tend to happen if we don’t first realize that our trading and investing is being negatively impacted by boredom and do something about it.

For example, in my experience traders tend to either disconnect from the market entirely (which can be dangerous with positions open or lost opportunity) or they do the exact opposite by increasing their overall risk to “make it more interesting.” Likewise, investors tend to become far more active (i.e. they turn into traders and churn positions) just to do something to keep themselves preoccupied or they buy and sell stocks that normally they wouldn’t even consider. In either case, neither one tends to work very well.

When you start to see the signs that you are becoming bored and have the urge to do something “different,” I recommend mixing things up a little. For example, when I become bored with my trading and daily routine I often do the following which seems to help:

  • Head to the gym (intense and exhausting exercise is the best cure for boredom I know)

  • Mix up the daily routine (I like to flip my day around and do things I usually do at the end of the day first)

  • Try to learn something new (I often try to study a different sector/different market now, but in previous years I would enjoy playing around with a new indicator or two)

  • Read about something you know nothing about (if you do this, you’ll be amazed by how much it will stimulate your brain)

  • Take some time off and do something else (while I always have a long “honey-do” list to keep me busy, that’s also why there are golf courses!)

Now, for those of you who make a living trading and who feel they cannot leave the game for an hour, much less an entire trading day, I have some suggestions for you as well: (more…)

Wisdom Quotes adapted to Trading

2010-12-18

 

Here are some famous quotes adapted to trading.

A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be.
Albert Einstein

A trader should look at a chart for what it is, and not for what he want it
to be.

A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.
Albert Einstein

A trader who has never lost, is not a trader yet.

All men by nature desire knowledge.
Aristotle

All traders by nature desire profitable trades.

Bring your desires down to your present means. Increase them only when your increased means permit.
Aristotle

Trade within your ability and risk tolerance. Increase size and frequency when ability and tolerance permits it.

Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn.
Benjamin Franklin

Losing because of a new situation is fine, losing again is the beginning of the end.

By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.
Benjamin Franklin

The easiest thing to do is prepare. If you don’t, on behalf of the other market participants, we thank you.

Creditors have better memories than debtors.
Benjamin Franklin

You will always remember the trades that could have been and forget about the risks that were involved.

Applause is a receipt, not a bill.
Dale Carnegie

Your trading statement is the receipt, not your spreadsheet.

First ask yourself: What is the worst that can happen? Then prepare to accept it. Then proceed to improve on the worst.
Dale Carnegie

The more you mentally prepare and except loss the less chance it occurs.

A pair of powerful spectacles has sometimes sufficed to cure a person in love.
Friedrich Nietzsche

A trade is a not the girl you want to take home to mother, act accordingly.

After coming into contact with a religious man I always feel I must wash my hands.
Friedrich Nietzsche

After talking to a guru or anyone with the holy grail, I always take a hot shower, burn the clothes I was wearing, and drink them out of my mind.

Ah, women. They make the highs higher and the lows more frequent.
Friedrich Nietzsche

Focusing on the result (making money), makes winning more fun but less frequent.

Always do whatever’s next.
George Carlin

Move on, understand what happened in the past but do not have an emotional attachment to it.

Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity.
George Carlin

Fighting yourself is like robbing your own bank.

A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.
George S. Patton

A trading plan is just words until you act on it.

Always do everything you ask of those you command.
George S. Patton

Educators talk in best practices, if you teach it, do it.

I don’t measure a man’s success by how high he climbs but how high he bounces when he hits bottom.
George S. Patton

The easiest thing to handle is winning, but trading doesn’t start until you lose.

If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.
George S. Patton

If every trader is the long there is no money in being long unless you were first.

Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence.
George Washington

Don’t marry a trade but if you must make sure you have a prenup.

Experience teaches us that it is much easier to prevent an enemy from posting themselves than it is to dislodge them after they have got possession.
George Washington

Your habits are easily formed but be aware they are hard to pay for.

A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.
Henry David Thoreau

Just because the market is open does not mean you have to trade. Cash is a position too.

All men are children, and of one family. The same tale sends them all to bed, and wakes them in the morning.
Henry David Thoreau

Your worth as a trader is today’s trading statement, it is re-calculated daily.

All this worldly wisdom was once the unamiable heresy of some wise man.
Henry David Thoreau

The trading genius was previously an idiot or is closer to being one tomorrow.

A bore is a person who opens his mouth and puts his feats in it.
Henry Ford

All trading results are insignificant unless it is your last.

Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success.
Henry Ford

Having trading discipline is the beginning; keeping discipline is the progress; staying discipline is the success.

Be candid with everyone.
Jack Welch

Be honest with yourself, if or when you fail the change of direction will not kill you.

Change before you have to.
Jack Welch

The market will force you to change if you don’t and it is painful and disheartening.

Control your own destiny or someone else will.
Jack Welch

Put yourself in the best position or you will not have a position come tomorrow.

Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be.
Jack Welch

Bend your view to the charts, not the charts to your view.

Even Castles made of sand, fall into the sea, eventually.
Jimi Hendrix

If the base of your trading was built on weak grounds, it is not a matter of if you fail but when you fail.

I try to use my music to move these people to act.
Jimi Hendrix

I place my entries and exits where I am assured people will have to act.

I used to live in a room full of mirrors; all I could see was me.
Jimi Hendrix

You are not the market, but some days you are a part of it.

Abuse of words has been the great instrument of sophistry and chicanery, of party, faction, and division of society.
John Adams

Trading can be simple if you let it. The stakeholders want to convince you otherwise, making their accomplishment and pocketbooks larger.

In politics the middle way is none at all.
John Adams

Indecision will lead to failure even if it does not result in losing money.

Efforts and courage are not enough without purpose and direction.
John F. Kennedy

Any trader can take risk a smart trader can use it to their advantage.

Forgive your enemies, but never forget their names.
John F. Kennedy

Move past your losing trades don’t erase them.

I don’t think the intelligence reports are all that hot. Some days I get more out of the New York Times.
John F. Kennedy

Understand from whom and why you are getting “hot” tips.

Adversity is the state in which man mostly easily becomes acquainted with himself, being especially free of admirers then.
John Wooden

Losing is lonely, but it can be the easiest way to get to know yourself.

Don’t measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.
John Wooden

If you make money by making a mistake, it is loan with a very high interest rate.

Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be.
John Wooden

Losing only matters if you lost because of a lesson you were already taught.

If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?
John Wooden

Develop a plan before you trade or do it later with less cash and more frustration.

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
Karl Marx

A result is rarely an aberration, never treat it as one.

Be content to seem what you really are.
Marcus Aurelius

Find yourself and trade that way.

Because a thing seems difficult for you, do not think it impossible for anyone to accomplish.
Marcus Aurelius

Because trading seems difficult today, it was not for someone else. Stick with it the roles may reverse tomorrow.

Confine yourself to the present.
Marcus Aurelius

A trade is not connected to another, unless you let.

A man is never more truthful than when he acknowledges himself a liar.
Mark Twain

Not accepting a failure is to not learn from it.

A man’s character may be learned from the adjectives which he habitually uses in conversation.
Mark Twain

If you lose you are not necessarily a loser, if you call yourself a loser no one will be able to change your mind.

Against the assault of laughter nothing can stand.
Mark Twain

Don’t risk more than you cannot look at positively later.

A lie cannot live.
Martin Luther King, Jr.

Eventually you will run out of money if you run from your losses.

Everything that we see is a shadow cast by that which we do not see.
Martin Luther King, Jr.

You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right.

He who hesitates is poor.
Mel Brooks

If you are thinking about getting out, your competition is already flat.

Always turn a negative situation into a positive situation.
Michael Jordan

A loss is only a loss if you lose the lesson.

I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life and that is why I succeed.
Michael Jordan

The view of trading changes after a loss it is your job to get it back to where it was.

The game is my wife. It demands loyalty and responsibility, and it gives me back fulfillment and peace.
Michael Jordan

If you do not respect the market it will not respect you.

I have found the paradox, that if you love until it hurts, there can be no more hurt, only more love.
Mother Teresa

If you understand and accept risk, you will never risk too much again.

If you can’t feed a hundred people, then feed just one.
Mother Teresa

It does not matter how successful you were today, it just matters that you were successful.

I realize that some of my anecdotes may appear conflicting but they are not to me. It is not up to me to convince you of their truths. It is your job to figure out how they apply to you.

9 Common Trading Errors

1. Making trades with insufficient study and practice.

2. Making trades out of harmony with the general trend.

3. Taking a position too late after a move is well under way or is completed.

4. Taking a position too soon due to impatience.

5. Improperly estimating the distance a stock should move.

6. Letting eagerness to make profits warp judgment.

7. Failing to keep a position sheet and selecting stocks on hunches rather than calculations.

8. Buying on bulges instead of waiting on reactions.

9. Failing to place and move stops.

Technically Yours/ASR TEAM

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