Archives of “January 2019” month

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Observation

  
  Education
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observation2

  • -If you find yourself holding a winning position, adding up your profits, and confidently projecting larger gains on the horizon, you are probably better off exiting the trade. The odds are that the trade has run its course.
  • -When entering a trade with a market order and your fill is clearly better than expected, odds are it will end up being a losing trade. Good fill, bad trade. Get out!
  • -If all your ‘trading buddies’ agree with your expectations regarding the next big move, it probably will not work out. If everyone’s conviction level is as strong as the consensus, do the opposite.

A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained

  
  Education
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  • When a hunch hits you, the first thing to do is ask whether a big enough library of data could exist in your mind to have generated that hunch. Ask yourself whether you are genuinely knowledgeable on the particular topic. Have you studied it? Have you been following its ups and downs?
  • Trust your hunch only if you can explain it — that is, only if you can identify within your mind a stored body of information out of which that hunch might reasonably be supposed to have arisen. If you have no such library of data, disregard the hunch.
  • The reason for subjecting hunches to this rigorous testing is that sometimes we get flashes of intuition that aren’t based on good, hard fact. They are airy nothings.

Will Rao and FM take a long march into future?

  
  Education
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Will Rao join the FM in the walk-back hand-in-hand with each other?
 
Subbarao, the former RBI governor fired some salvos as a parting gift to the current FM last Thursday. That it took him 5 years to take a broadside at the FM on the last working day of his career, shows how little spine the Central Banker had been left with.
 
More importantly, it brings to the open certain disturbing signs that were spoken off in hushed tones but are now visible in the open.  The lobby of students who have read Economics at school and who now run what else-but the national media and newspapers lapped up Rao’s speech.
 
But who’s responsibility was Rao alluding to when he raved and ranted over the North Block interference and pressures. The fact that he highlighted that RBI was manned by the over 50s tribe, which had no knowledge of financial markets and he himself came from the IAS with a bare-bone graduate degree and past designation as Finance Secretary shows how poorly the educated in this country are treated. There is a segment of jobless PhDs who seek pastures overseas and there is the graduate lobby that has to it’s credit the achievement of having passed the IAS entrance exam but except for a 2-3 month training in Simla have not even the smithers of a professional knowledge. These are the people who run the nation’s finances. (more…)
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