Archives of “January 2019” month

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Book Review :Elder, The New Sell & Sell Short

  
Analysis, Education
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Most traders have read Alexander Elder’s Trading for a Living, originally published in 1993. Elder has, of course, written other popular books such as Come into My Trading Room (2002) and Entries and Exits (2006). His latest work, The New Sell & Sell Short: How to Take Profits, Cut Losses, and Benefit from Price Declines (Wiley, 2011) is an expanded second edition of his 2008 book. It comes with a built-in study guide: three sets of questions and answers. Although it is a paperback, the charts and graphs are printed in color and the stock is of high quality.

The first part of the book covers Elder’s signature contributions to the trading literature: psychology, risk management, and record-keeping. It is brief because we’ve been there before, but Elder does describe some new ways to keep records—an ongoing project because he believes that “the single most important factor in your success or failure is the quality of your records.” (p. 341)

Part two tackles the all-important question of how to exit a (long) trade. Elder offers three alternative scenarios: sell at a target above the market, be prepared to sell below the market using a protective stop, and “sell before the stock hits either a target or a stop—because market conditions have changed and you no longer want to hold it.” (p. 59)

Elder then moves on to shorting stocks, futures, and forex; he also has a section on writing options. Finally, he points out some lessons of the 2007-2009 bear market. (more…)

The journey to becoming a winning trader

  
  Education
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You need to learn to execute without fear or hesitation.
You need to accept that you will get stopped out when you are wrong.
And you also need to accept that the only way to really accumulate profits on your account is to let winners run.
And finally, the fourth and probably most difficult step is to push your winners, or in other words, you add to your winning positions.

Jesse Livermore :Timeless lessons

  
  Education
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All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.

Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.

It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.

Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.

When a margin call reaches you, close your account. Never meet a margin call. You are on the wrong side of a market. Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day.

Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance. Follow the trend. The trend is your friend.

A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrongopinions often are.

Few people succeed in the market because they have no patience. They have a strong desire to get rich quickly.

I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humansand human nature never changes.

When you make a trade, you should have a clear target where to sell if the market moves against you. And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than 10% of your capital. Losses are twice as expensive to make up. I always established a stop before making a trade.

I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I’m concerned it is a full-time jobperhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success.

The big money is made by the sittin’ and the waitin’not the thinking. Wait until all the factors are in your favor before making the trade.

It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting…Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after this that a stock operator can make big money. it is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of ignorance.

Give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.

Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game. That is about all I have learned – to study general conditions, to take a position and stick to it.

Remember that stocks are never to high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.

That is where the tape comes in – to enable you to decide as to the proper time for beginning. Much depends upon beginning at exactly the right time. (more…)

7 Points To Follow If You Are A Trader

  
  Education
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  1.  Expect long hours of study and research. Assume you will lose money in the beginning.
  2. A person interested in becoming a trader must have the mindset of an entrepreneur. Risk, irregular income, and spending money to make money, are all part of the business.
  3. You must trade like a business person and not a gambler. Gamblers need not apply; go to Vegas instead.
  4. Risk management will be your priority. Too much risk exposure will eventually lead you to be an unemployed trader with no trading capital.
  5. You are your own human resource department. Be prepared to manage your own greed and fear.
  6. To keep your morale up, you must keep all your losses small, and allow your winning trades to be as large as possible.
  7. Jesse Livermore’s quote for potential candidates: “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

The Death of Money-Book Review

  
Analysis, Education
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103729This is a hard book to review. I have respect for the author, and most of his opinions.  But extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.  There is evidence here, but not extraordinary proof.  I agree that we are in a bad spot, and that there is reason to be cautious.  To claim that the current international monetary system will disappear by 2020 or so requires more than the book delivers.

Let me begin by saying the book is worth buying.  It will make you think.  Thinking is a valuable exercise in which few engage.  Most of us imitate, which is far easier to do than thinking, and usually saves time on common issues.

The author focuses on the weaknesses of US economic policy, but is less critical of bad economic policies being pursued around the world, with the poster children being Japan, China, and the EU.  The US has its problems, but also its unique strengths.  Though I am a critic of US economic policy, we are better off than most other large nations.

One criticism of the book is that it is not focused.  Make your case, and don’t go down many “rabbit trails.”  That said, the rabbit trails are interesting, and you will learn a lot from them, though they don’t support the central thesis of the book.  I think the book needed a better editor, because a tighter book would have made the case better. (more…)

Four Poisons

  
  Education
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There is a Korean martial art called Kum Do. This is a brutal game that involves a fight to the death with very sharp swords. The way it is practiced today is with bamboo sticks, but the moves are the same. Kum Do teaches the student warriors to avoid what are called “The Four Poisons of the Mind.” These are: fear, confusion, hesitation and surprise. In Kum Do, the student must be constantly on guard to never anticipate the next move of the opponent. Likewise, the student must never allow his natural tendencies for prediction to get the better of him. Having a preconceived bias of what the markets or the opponents will do can lead to momentary confusion and—in the case of Kum Do—to death. A single blow in Kum Do can be lethal, and is the final cut, since the object is to kill the opponent. One blow—>death—>game over.

Instead of predicting, anticipating, and being in fear and confusion, you must do exactly the opposite if you are to survive a death blow from the market movements. You must watch with a calm, clear and collected attitude and strike at the right time. A few seconds of anticipation, hesitation or confusion can mean the difference between life and death in Kum Do—and wins or losses in the stock markets. If you are not in tune with the four poisons of fear, confusion, hesitation or surprise in the markets, you are at risk for ruin. Ruin means that your money is gone and the game is over.

How can you avoid the four poisons of the trading mind: fear, confusion, hesitation and surprise?

Replace fear with faith—faith in your trading model and trading plan

Replace confusion with the attitude of being comfortable with uncertainty

Replace hesitation with decisive action

Replace surprise with taking nothing for granted and preparing yourself for anything.

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