Archives of “January 2019” month

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Google's Artificial Intelligence Can Predict Your Death With 95% Accuracy

  
Analysis, Education

Google’s neverending quest to obtain as much information about you as possible has just crossed into a rather eerie territory.  The tech company’s artificial intelligence is now so advanced that it can predict when you will die with 95 percent accuracy.

Things feel as they are drifting toward the macabre when it comes to advances in technology.  Nothing seals that quite like the announcement of Google’s ability to predict your death with stunning accuracy using artificial intelligence. As reported by IFL Science, the new ability to use AI to predict death is outlined in a study recently published in npj Digital Medicine. The study involves new Artificial Intelligence (AI) that Google’s Medical Brain team have been working on. It has been trained to predict how likely it is that patients entering a hospital will make it out alive.

 

Bring on the death panels. As if things aren’t scary enough, imagine how horrifying this technology’s use could be especially if the government ever gains complete control of the healthcare system.  Google’s AI would simply say there’s not a high likelihood of a person making it out of the hospital alive, so no care will be given.  Humanity is most definitely devolving.

The AI is 95% accurate which is much more accurate than the current early warning score system used in hospitals now.

Overall, the study found that the AI was able to predict mortality 24 hours after admission with 95 percent accuracy at one of the hospitals trialed, and 93 percent at the other. This was significantly better than the hospital’s traditional predictive model (the augmented Early Warning Score), which predicted mortality with 85 and 86 percent accuracy respectively. –IFL Science

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Cut your losses and let your winners ride

  
  Education
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This quote is the perfect corollary to Livermore’s. Just as he preached “sitting”, letting your winners ride is the same idea. If you have on a position and it’s working, let it make you money. Don’t cut it prematurely for the sake of booking a small profit. Don’t get scared and exit on the first reaction, when all of your trading rules dictate staying in. If it’s a winner, and it’s working, then let it ride. Winners are good—embrace them.

The important flip side is how to treat losing trades. The first lesson is that losers have to be cut at some point.  Otherwise, a losing trade can keep eating away at your P&L, undoing the profits from any winning positions. If you cut losses at a pre-defined level, then they stop—and presumably your wins can be larger than your losses.

The math behind this is compelling. If you assume that your average winner make 1.6x what your average loser loses, then you only need to be right 40% of the time in order to make money consistently. By keeping the leash short on your losses, then you can let the math of statistical expectation work in your favor. Cut losses and let your winners ride.

There is another aspect to this. A loser isn’t just a trade where you get stopped out at a pre-defined loss limit. Imagine a trade that isn’t making money and has just been languishing on your books—this is also a loser. Cut it, free up financial and mental capital  and move on.

Mera Bharat Mahan !

  
Analysis, Economy, Education, Life
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-According to a new Oxford University study, 55 percent of India’s population of 1.1 billion, or 645 million people, are living in poverty. Using a newly-developed index, the study found that about one-third of the world’s poor live in India.

-As measured by the new index, half of the world’s poor are in South Asia (51 percent or 844 million people) and one quarter in Africa (28 per cent or 458 million). While poverty in Africa is often highlighted, the Oxford research found that there was more acute poverty in India than many African countries combined. Poverty in eight Indian states—Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal—exceeded that of the 26 poorest African countries.

–The study examined poverty across 28 Indian states, concluding that “81 percent of people are multidimensionally poor in Bihar—more than any other state. Also, poverty in Bihar and Jharkand is most intense—poor people are deprived in 60 percent of the MPI’s weighted indicators. Uttar Pradesh is the home of largest number of poor people—21 percent of India’s poor people live there. West Bengal is home to the third largest number of poor people.”

-Only 31 percent of India’s population had access to improved sanitation in 2008.

–Another study that used a household income of $US2 a day as the poverty benchmark found that India not only has more poor people than sub-Saharan Africa, but also has a higher level of poverty. In India, 75.6 percent of the population, or 828 million people, live below the poverty line as compared to 72.2 percent, or 551 million people in sub-Saharan Africa.

In the 1950’s modern bread used to cost 10 paise, 1971 – 75 paise, 1980 – Rs 1.0, Today – Rs 16. All thanks to uninterrupted deficit budgeting . The definition of poverty line is something like Rs 3500 per YEAR and 27% of the population is below it. If you take the poverty line to be something to be more realistic like Rs 3500 per MONTH – you would have 70% of our population below the poverty line.

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