On Risk:
– Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health – if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
– Always play for meaningful stakes – if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either.
– Resist the allure of diversification.

On Greed:
– Always take your profit too soon.
– Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

On Hope:
– When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
– Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

On Forecasts:
– Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

On Patterns:
– Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly.
– Beware the historian’s trap – it is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.
– Beware the chartist’s illusion – it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
– Beware the gambler’s fallacy – there’s no such thing as “Today’s my lucky day” or “I’m hot tonight”.

On Mobility:
– Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
– Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
– Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.

On Intuition:
– A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
– Never confuse a hunch with a hope.

On the Occult:
– If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
– A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.

On Optimism & Pessimism:
– Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence mean knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic. (more…)