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Successful trading is about making money…not about being right

  
  Education
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According to Mark Douglas…

In any particular trade you never really know how far prices will travel from any given point. If you never really know where the market may stop, it is very easy to believe there are no limits to how much you can make on any given trade. From a psychological perspective this characteristic will allow you to indulge yourself in the illusion that each trade has the potential of fulfilling your wildest dream of financial independence. Based on the consistency of market participants and their potential to act as a force great enough to move prices in your direction, the possibility of having your dreams fulfilled may not even remotely exist. However, if you believe it does, then you will have the tendency to gather only the kind of market information that will confirm and reinforce your belief, all the while denying vital information that may be telling you the best opportunity may be in the opposite direction.

There are several psychological factors that go into being able to assess accurately the market’s potential for movement in any given direction. One of them is releasing yourself from the notion that each trade has the potential to fulfill all your dreams. At the very least this illusion will be a major obstacle keeping you from learning how to perceive market action from an objective perspective. Otherwise, if you continually filter market information in such a way as to confirm this belief, learning to be objective won’t be a concern because you probably won’t have any money left to trade with (italics mine).

From Chapter Four of THE DISCIPLINED TRADER

King of Turtle Traders

  
  Education
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I’m currently rereading “Complete Turtle Traders“ and if you’re not familiar with the story, I highly recommend this book. There aren’t many books that I reference often and this is one of them due to the psychological insight of trading and it’s impact on your performance. And what you’re going to read below is just a snippet from the first 27 pages of the book.

Richard Dennis is fast becoming one of my trading icons as I learn more about his attitude and methodology on trading and life. Here are a few quotes from the book that will offer some insight into what type of person and trader he was at that time:

His emotional attachment to dollars and cents appeared nonexistent.

He thought in terms of leverage.

You’re much better off going into the market on a shoestring, feeling that you can’t afford to lose.

Reacting to opportunities that others never saw was how he marched through life.

….you had to be able to accept losses both psychologically and physiologically.

I’m an empiricist through and through.

….the majority is wrong a lot of the time. The vast majority is wrong even more of the time.

He was an anti-establishment guy making a fortune leveraging the establishment.

Dennis read Psychology Today to keep his emotions in check and to remind him of how overrated intuition was in trading.

I think it’s far more important to know what Freud thinks about death wishes than what
Milton Friedman thinks about deficit spending.

You have to have mentally gone through the process of failure.

He has the ability under tremendous pressure to stand there with his own money and pull the trigger when other people wilted.

When he was wrong, he could turn on a dime.

One man’s volatility is another man’s profit.

SUBJECT: What makes a frustrating market?

I wanted to end with a quote from one of the most famous Turtle Traders of all, Curtis Faith, that very much resonates with my methodology of zentrading. This comes from “Inside the Mind of the Turtles”which is another book I recommend. Do not buy his second book “Way of the Turtle”. It was absolutely horrible and very poorly written. I’m still reading his new book (very promising) and I’ll let you know how that one goes. Anyhow…here’s the quote and pay special attention to the phase in italics and if you found this post especially useful please retweet and share with your networks. I look forward to reading your comments and any particular insight you may have.

Winning traders think in the present and avoid thinking too much in the future. They look at the future as unknowable in specifics, but foreseeable in character. To win you need to free yourself and your thinking of outcome bias. It does not matter what happens with any particular trade.

10 losing trades + sticking to your plan = bad luck.

Getting Comfortable with Uncertainty

  
  Education
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A trader who is comfortable with uncertainty has the capacity to stay relaxed in unclear situations and make high probability decisions with a strong degree of conviction.

As a trader, how many times have you asked yourself “Is this the right call?”
If you are like most other traders, the answer should be “nearly all the time.”
How about we break this down and think about it from a different angle.

New Perspective:
Let’s consider the possibility that it is NOT your job to make “The Right Call” but rather to make an intelligent, data-point-supported guestimate of what “The Right Call” could be and then monitor, adjust, and possibly liquidate that decision as it develops over time.

Viewing it this way takes the pressure off, doesn’t it? In fact, it may even get you more Comfortable with Making Decisions during Uncertainty.

My point is, like golf, trading is not a game of perfect. Successful traders just don’t waste their time trying to be “RIGHT;” instead they are focused on MAKING MONEY.

Top performers in any field practice their game, establish a plan and TRAIN themselves to execute when the widow of opportunity appears. So why would we think trading should be any different? In the end, winning is not about being right, it is about getting the job done.

Keep your eye on the ball and your head in the game!

Step by step…

  
  Education
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1. Create a clear, concise method that will serve you to find trading ideas. A method consist of simple to implement consecutive steps based on market anomalies. A method should be derived from your trading goals and it always incorporates in itself money management techniques for capital preservation.

2. Use those trading ideas to create a plan of action.

3. A plan of action usually consists of two or more scenarios. For example if X happens, I will go with trading idea A; if Y happens, I will go with trading idea B. We create different scenarious, because we can’t control the market. We forecast what might happen and plan how we will react if certain event or a process happens.

Having a clear method helps you to be consistent and disciplined in finding new trading ideas. Creating a plan helps you to profit from your trading ideas. It assist you to focus on your goals.

7 Psychological habits

  
  Education
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1. Overconfidence and optimism

Most of us are way too confident about our ability to foresee the future, and overwhelmingly too optimistic in our forecasts.

This finding holds across all disciplines, for both professionals and non-professionals, with the exceptions of weather forecasters and horse handicappers.

Lesson: Learn not to trust your gut.

2. Hindsight

We consistently exaggerate our prior beliefs about events.

Market forecasters spend a lot of time telling us why the market behaved the way it did. They’re great at telling us we need an umbrella after it starts raining as well, but it doesn’t improve our returns. We’re all useless at remembering what we used to believe.

Lesson: Keep a diary, revisit your thinking constantly.

3. Loss aversion

We hurt more when we sell at a loss than we feel happy when we (more…)

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