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Larry Hite on Risk
Some wise views from Larry Hite:
“We don’t really trade silver…we don’t trade the S&P…we trade the differences. We really are risk managers. We take on risks, try to exploit them and we leave when they turn against us. That is what we get paid for. Basically we are in the risk transfer business. We take on what people want to sell, sell what people want to buy and hope to make a profit. The reason why one goes to a portfolio is because there are real limits to perfect knowledge. I’ll give you an example. Say you knew which commodity, stock or currency would appreciate the most in the following year, and you knew exactly what its price would be. We did this experiment looking backwards in fact in our database. The question of when you take a position is how are you going to trade the line…how much of a position are you going to leverage. Now, if you have perfect knowledge, would you leverage 5 to 1, would you leverage 10 to 1, 2 to 1? Well it turns out that if you leverage more than 3 to 1 that you are a loser. Because we found that if you did 3 to 1 you would have, even with perfect knowledge, you could go down a third. So that, the only perfect knowledge you could have, would be if you knew every wiggle on the line. Then you would know exactly how much to leverage. But you don’t.”
Harriman’s New Book of Investing Rules -Book Review
Harriman’s New Book of Investing Rules: The Do’s & Don’ts of the World’s Best Investors, edited by Christopher Parker, contains over 500 pages of wisdom from 64 noted American and British investors. It’s a smorgasbord of ideas from which the reader can pick and choose. Don’t like Brussel sprouts? Here, have some cheesecake. But, said in a cautionary whisper, you’d be better off with the Brussel sprouts.
I hate to think how many years of successful investing experience are encapsulated in this volume. Probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 2,000. There aren’t too many resources that can claim this much collective experience.
Herewith a tiny sampling of some of the rules, minus the often much more insightful explanation that follows each of them.
Diversify, but not to mediocrity.
Concentrate, but not too much.
Hedge when the market’s expensive and falling.
Unless you are a genius use a system.
Don’t rely too heavily on models.
Beware of geeks bearing formulas.
Demographics are destiny.
Price is the paramount trading signal.
Be happy doing nothing.
Question the persistency of anomalies.
Understand your edge and why it is sustainable.
Review past stupidities, but don’t let them make you timid.
Only bet on one variable at a time.
It’s important that your process does not work in every market environment.
Don’t chop and change too much.
Be patient—fortune sometimes take a while to favor the bold.
Time, not timing, is the key to investment success. The best time to invest, therefore, is now.
Always remember that investing is hard.
10 Trading Mistakes
1. Refusing to define a loss.
2. Not liquidating a losing trade, even after you have acknowledged the trade’s potential is greatly diminished.
3. Getting locked into a specific opinion or belief about market direction. From a psychological perspective this is equivalent to trying to control the market with your expectation of what it will do: “I’m right, the market is wrong.”
4. Focusing on price and the monetary value of a trade, instead of the potential for the market to move based on its behavior and structure.
5. Revenge-trading as if you were trying get back at the market for what it took away from you.
6. Not reversing your position even when you clearly sense a change in market direction.
7. Not following the rules of the trading system.
8. Planning for a move or feeling one building, but then finding yourself immobilized to hit the bid or offer, and therefore denying yourself the opportunity to profit.
9. Not acting on your instincts or intuition.
10. Establishing a consistent pattern of trading success over a period of time, and then giving your winnings back to the market in one or two trades and starting the cycle over again.
Buffett's comments on Berkshire's original textile business – many lessons.
Speculation Defined
Graham and Dodd’s Definition of Speculation
Graham and Dodd’s Definition of SpeculationIn their 1934 classic text, Security Analysis, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd provided a general definition of speculation: “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
By this definition, most people who buy stocks are speculators. We can attempt to sharpen Graham and Dodd’s definition by including time-scale. Speculators are not interested in putting their money into a stock or commodity for a long time. They want to see a good profit quickly – on a time scale of minutes to months. If their money does not quickly perform well in a situation, they move it into another situation.
In pursuit of greater gain, speculators take greater risks with their capital than people who put their money into Savings & CD Accounts.
Jesse Livermore’s Definition of Speculation
Jesse Livermore, the 20th century’s most (in)famous speculator provided his own definition of speculation – preceding Graham and Dodd’s by several years. In Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, under his pseudonym of Lawrence Livingston, he said: “The speculator is not an investor. His object is not to secure a steady return on his money at a good rate of interest, but to profit by either a rise or a fall in the price of whatever he may be speculating in.” (more…)
This is Perfect
Why English is so hard to learn…
Oracle-George Soros
George SorosFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, search
“Soros” redirects here. For other uses, see Soros (disambiguation).
George Soros
George Soros at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2010
Born August 12, 1930 (1930-08-12) (age 80)
Budapest, Kingdom of Hungary
Alma mater London School of Economics
Occupation Entrepreneur, currency trader, investor, philosopher, philanthropist, political activist
Net worth ▲ $14.2 billion (Forbes)[1]
Religion None; Atheist[2]
Spouse Twice divorced (Annaliese Witschak and Susan Weber Soros)
Children Robert, Andrea, Jonathan, Alexander, Gregory
Website
www.georgesoros.com
George Soros (Hungarian: Soros György) (pronounced /ˈsɔroʊs/ or /ˈsɔrəs/,;[3] HungarianIPA: [ˈʃoroʃ]; born August 12, 1930, as Schwartz György) is a Hungarian-American currency speculator, stock investor, businessman, philanthropist, and liberal political activist.[4] He became known as “the Man Who Broke the Bank of England” after he made a reported $1 billion during the 1992 Black Wednesday UK currency crises.[5][6]
Soros is chairman of Soros Fund Management and the Open Society Institute and a former member of the Board of Directors of the Council on Foreign Relations. He played a significant role in the peaceful transition from Communism to Capitalism in Hungary (1984–89),[6] and provided Europe’s largest ever higher education endowment to Central European University in Budapest.[7] Later, his funding and organization of Georgia’s Rose Revolution was considered by Russian and Western observers to have been crucial to its success. In the United States, he is known for donating large sums of money in an effort to defeat President George W. Bush’s bid for re-election in 2004. He helped found the Center for American Progress.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker wrote in 2003 in the foreword of Soros’ book The Alchemy of Finance:
George Soros has made his mark as an enormously successful speculator, wise enough to largely withdraw when still way ahead of the game. The bulk of his enormous winnings is now devoted to encouraging transitional and emerging nations to become ‘open societies,’ open not only in the sense of freedom of commerce but—more important—tolerant of new ideas and different modes of thinking and behavior.
Family
Soros was born in Budapest, Kingdom of Hungary, the son of the Esperantist writer Tivadar Soros. Tivadar (also known as Teodoro) was a Hungarian Jew, who was a prisoner of war during and after World War I and eventually escaped from Russia to rejoin his family in Budapest.[8][9]
The family changed its name in 1936 from Schwartz to Soros, in response to growing anti-semitism with the rise of Fascism. Tivadar liked the new name because it is a palindrome and because it has a meaning. Although the specific meaning is left unstated in Kaufmann’s biography, in Hungarian, soros means “next in line, or designated successor and in Esperanto, it means “will soar”.[10] His son George was taught to speak Esperanto from birth and is a native Esperanto speaker. George Soros later said that he grew up in a Jewish home, and that his parents were cautious with their religious roots.[11]
George Soros has been married and divorced twice, to Annaliese Witschak, and to Susan Weber Soros. He has five children: Robert, Andrea, Jonathan (with his first wife, Annaliese); Alexander, Gregory (with his second wife, Susan). His elder brother, Paul Soros, a private investor and philanthropist, is a retired engineer, who headed Soros Associates, an international engineering firm based in New York, and established the Paul and Daisy Soros Fellowships for Young Americans.[12][13] George Soros’ nephew Peter Soros, a son of Paul Soros, is married to the former Flora Fraser, a daughter of Lady Antonia Fraser and the late Sir Hugh Fraser, and a stepdaughter of the late 2005 Nobel Laureate Harold Pinter.[14]
[edit] Early life (more…)