4 Type of Market Cycles

1)  Bottoming process – At market lows, we tend to see an elevation of volume and volatility and a high level of market correlation, as stocks are dumped across the board.  Selling pressure far exceeds buying pressure and sentiment becomes quite bearish.  At important market bottoms, we see price lows that are not confirmed by market breadth, as strong stocks begin to diverge from the pack and attract buying interest.  At those bottoms, we also find a rise in buying pressure and a reduction of selling pressure, as fresh market lows fail to attract new selling interest.  

2)  Market rise – With the drying up of selling, low prices attract buying from longer timeframe participants as well as shorter-term opportunistic ones.  The market rises on strong buying pressure and low selling pressure, and the rise generates sufficient thrust to generate a good degree of upside momentum.  Volatility and correlation remain relatively high during the initial lift off from the lows and breadth is strong.  Dips are bought and the rise is sustained.

3)  Topping process – The market hits a momentum peak, often identifiable by a peak in the number of shares registering fresh highs.  Selling from this peak generally exceeds the level of selling seen during the market rise, but ultimately attracts buyers.  Weak stocks begin to diverge from the pack and fresh price highs typically occur with breadth divergences and lower levels of correlation.  New buying lacks the thrust of the earlier move from the lows and volatility wanes.  By the time we hit a price peak for the cycle, divergences are clear, volatility is low, both buying pressure and selling pressure are low, and sentiment remains bullish.  

4)  Market decline – Fresh selling creates a pickup in correlation and volatility, as short-term support levels are violated and selling pressure exceeds buying pressure.  Breadth turns negative and the bulk of stocks now move lower.

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