Archives of “January 5, 2019” day

rss

Speculation drives human progress

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Speculation, in all its forms, is what drives human progress. This is the core message behind Michael Bigger’s recent post, “The Desire to Speculate”.
An excerpt from Michael’s essay: 
“It is said that the desire to speculate is very strong in the American people. That is why our country has made greater progress than any other country in the world, because progress is the result of speculation. We are not referring merely to stock speculations, but to the word in its broadest sense. Every new undertaking is a speculation.

An inventor speculates on what he is going to invent. Often such speculations result in losses, because many inventors, or would-be-inventors, never accomplish very much. They spend their money, time, and efforts, and probably live years in poverty, and then if the invention is not profitable, they are heavy losers.

It is the same thing with every new business. It is purely a speculation…”  (more…)

Discipline

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Discipline seems to be that elusive element in trading, the thing you just can’t seem to get no matter how hard you try. Its a willo-the-wisp that we’ve only heard rumours about. Do you jump from system to system, method to method, change your chart constantly and have a favourite indicator of the month? We roughly call this poor discipline.

However I’ve discovered that there is something more fundamental underneath this behavior, which is a lack of belief in the system you are using. You have no faith in it. If you did, all such behavior and “discipline problems” would vanish in a puff of smoke.

To prove the point, consider this: imagine if I gave you a magic box, and if you put a dollar in this magic box and pulled the lever it would always dispense one dollar fifty.

What would you do? Yes thats right, you would do it over and over and over wouldn’t you? Probably for hour upon hour you would do it.

Would you at any time become bored with this magic box and go in search of a better one? Would you try to improve it or invent your own? If you had absolute faith in the fact that the box will dispense the dollar fifty I say you would have no discipline issues what so ever. You’d sit there putting in dollars and cranking the handle like maniac.

The problem is that in trading the dispensing of the dollar fifty is not so obvious but blurred under a win / loss ratio and other complications, but quite honestly the process of trading is the same.

Hence I say that if you are still jumping from system to system and have poor discipline, try reframing it as having no faith or belief in the system you are using.

Balenthiran 17.6 Year Cycle

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Interesting take on the longer term Secular Bear Market Vs. Cyclical Bull Market, via Kerry Balenthiran:

“My research has identified that a 17.6 year stock market exists within the markets consisting of downtrends lasting 2.2 years and uptrends lasting 4.4 years (2 x 2.2 years), with a combined cycle length of 17.6 years. I have called this cycle the Balenthiran Cycle and demonstrate how the intermediate turning points match stock market behavior going back to the early 1900s and extrapolate the cycle forwards to provide a market roadmap of the next secular bull market to 2035 and subsequent secular bear market to 2053.”

A few caveats: The 17.6 year cycle has been bantered about for a long time by various people. (See “previous” below).

Second, I would add is that cycles can be interrupted by external events — like Bailouts, QE, etc.

Last, the world changes over time, and I doubt that any oscillation period dependent upon humans would stay all that consistent over decades and centuries.

We Just Mint Money-We dont cry !

  
Analysis, Education

Yesterday written to Buy ….Some Jokers had given comments

Today ,Whole India was running for this Stock.From 174 to 184 in hrs only.

Except  Born Blind ,Everybody had written these three stocks our Subscribers were holding long overnight.

Today….What happened to these stocks ??Pls check it !!

Fire Work Continues…………….Still HOT !!

Might be painful for Readers & Those who dont trade.Today after opening flared upto 452 …..crossed 448.50 for  less then 1 minute and selling started.(It was dirty game played by somebody )

But ,No worry @ all.We are Long and Bought more at 336-340 level.Target intact 362-380 level.

Anything can happen. Or as I like to say, anything can happen…and often does. Usually the market does the exact opposite of what we think it should do and when we begin to doubt the market it does exactly what we once thought it should do.  Get it?

Just Enjoy this …………Great song !!

Updated at 16:48/16th July/Baroda

Go to top