Archives of “volatility” tag

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Nuggets

  
  Education
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Price — The Truth, The Light, The Way

  • Work to understand price
  • Price does not move in a straight line
  • Big moves take time
  • Volatility is your friend and helps to compress time
  • Although volatility is your pal, it can cut both ways
  • If a stock moves 30% a day, then you can’t trade with a 5% stop
  • Don’t expect a volatile stock to stop behaving as it has been and only move in your favor just because you’re now in it. Unless you’re Bill Clinton, what is, IS.

Random Thoughts:

  • Observe but be slow to shift gears — we are trend followers, not predictors
  • It’s the market’s “job” to shake you out
    • The market will do what it has to do to create the most pain (for the most people)
    • The market will often do the obvious in the most un-obvious manner
  • Err on the side of the longer-term trend
    • DO wait for entries
    • DO use protective stops
    • DO trail and scale as offered

10 Pitfalls of Trading & Answers

  
  Education
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What are the 10 major mistakes that these traders make that cost them dearly?

  1. Having no trading plan

When you don’t have a plan, you don’t have a template to follow. It becomes very costly when your emotions are high and you have to make decisions on the fly.

  1. Using strategies that do not match your personality

You hear of a trading strategy that has worked very well and you are anxious to follow it. One important factor to consider is: does it match who you are and your lifestyle?

  1. Having unrealistic expectations

Most traders assume that it is very easy to make money in trading. They have unrealistic expectations with regard to their initial capital, their risk profile and how much money they can expect to make.

  1. Taking too much risk

Usually when traders are down, they want to make their money back very quickly. Therefore, they increase their position size without thinking about the risk/rewards.

  1. Not having rules to follow

Most traders think if they have rules to follow, they are restricting themselves. It is on the contrary. Having rules allows you to be more flexible since you have thought about lots of issues beforehand.

  1. Not being flexible to market conditions (more…)

Trading Nuggets

  
  Education
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Price — The Truth, The Light, The Way

  • Work to understand price
  • Price does not move in a straight line
  • Big moves take time
  • Volatility is your friend and helps to compress time
  • Although volatility is your pal, it can cut both ways
  • If a stock moves 30% a day, then you can’t trade with a 5% stop
  • Don’t expect a volatile stock to stop behaving as it has been and only move in your favor just because you’re now in it. Unless you’re Bill Clinton, what is, IS.

Random Thoughts:

  • Observe but be slow to shift gears — we are trend followers, not predictors
  • It’s the market’s “job” to shake you outErr on the side of the longer-term trend
    • The market will do what it has to do to create the most pain (for the most people)
    • The market will often do the obvious in the most un-obvious manner
  • DO wait for entries
  • DO use protective stops
  • DO trail and scale as offered

Psychology & Risk Management For Traders

  
  Education
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PSYCHOLOGY

  1. I keep Blue Channels turned off while trading.
  2. I do not care about others opinions I care only about price and chart action.
  3. I do not try to predict, instead I trade in accordance with the chart.
  4. I am not trying to prove I am right I am trying to make money.
  5. I am not trading for ego gratification I am trading for money.
  6. I am not trying to be the genius who calls a top I am the trend follower who follows a trend all the way up until it ends.
  7. I admit freely to my losing trades along with my winning trades.
  8. I do not get emotionally attached to each price movement through out the day.
  9. I have faith in my rules, methodology and system.
  10. I understand it that it is the market conditions and not me that creates profits.

RISK MANAGEMENT

  1. I never add to a losing positions.
  2. I carefully control position sizing to limit risk based on volatility.
  3. I attempt to never lose  more than 1% of my capital on any one trade.
  4. I trade smaller when volatility is high.
  5. I sell positions with volatility stops when daily ranges double in the wrong direction.
  6. I have stale stops and sale positions that do not trend in four days after entry.
  7. I quickly sell losing trades when my stop is hit.
  8. I sell stocks when they close in the bottom of the days range.
  9. I never expose more than 6% of my capital to possible loss at any one time.
  10. Risk is priority #1, profits are #2.

About Winning, About Losing

  
  Education
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People lose money at the stock market for very simple reasons:

1. They don’t have a method at all. They rely on other people opinions.

2. People don’t have a winning method. The method they are trading has a negative expectancy. Being disciplined about stop losses and position sizing won’t help, if you are trading a losing method. Expectancy changes with volatility. When your method stops providing satisfying results, you either find another that is working in the current market conditions or stay on the side until things change.

3. Those who have a winning strategy often don’t use it. They get emotional and forget about their strategy.

“Good trading is 10% technology and 90% psychology. People defeat themselves. It doesn’t matter how often you repeat basic trading principles when almost no one will practice them” (Maoxian)

Everybody knows the four cardinal rules of trading, but so few people follow them — 1) Trade with the trend. 2) Cut losses short. 3) Let profits run. 4) Manage risk.

There is a big difference between knowing something and applying it. Most people don’t use what they know.

 

The 10 Components of a Successful Trading

  
  Education
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1. The general market conditions for that specific trading day. For example is there a lot of volatility in the market, is the market trading lower or higher, ranging or trending?
2. Why you entered the trade, the time you entered the trade, and the price you entered the trade.
3. Why you exited the trade, the time you exited the trade, and the price you excited the trade.
4. Whether the trade was a long or short trade.
5. What happened with the market from the time you opened the trade to the time that you closed the trade.
6. The money management parameters you used in the trade and which we covered in our previous lessons on the subject.
7. Many traders will also attach a chart with their analysis on it to help them remember the trade when they review their trading journal.
8. Where you were weak that particular day and what you are going to do to address those weaknesses.
9. Where you were strong that day and what you are going to do to address those strengths.
10. Any other thoughts that you had that day which should be noted.

5 Steps for Traders

  
  Education
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  1. STAY DISCIPLINED AND ONLY TRADE YOUR METHOD. If you do not have a robust system, method, or strategy do not trade again until you have one.
  2. ONLY TAKE TRADES WITH IN THE PARAMETERS OF YOUR TRADING PLAN. Trade your plan not your emotions. If you do not have a plan that defines entries, exits, and position sizing do not trade again until you have one.
  3. YOUR FIRST LOSS IS YOUR BEST LOSS. When your planned stop is first hit just get out. In trading hoping is a very expensive emotion
  4. UNDERSTAND THE MARKET ENVIRONMENT. There are times to be short, times to be long, and times to be out. Volatility is many traders kryptonite.  If the market itself is not conducive to your strategy wait until it is.
  5. CHOOSE YOUR SPOTS CAREFULLY. Do not rush trades, wait until you get the right set up, trend, or break out you are waiting for, the market isn’t going anywhere, wait for the fat pitch.

Volatility

  
  Education
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In periods of higher volatility and shocks across the board, as in the last week, be prepared to alter your trading plan as a position taker.

Where once a constructive market under low-medium volatility allowed you to set defined price entries, and the usual patterns and trading synergies of a particular market held true, which in effect gave you your original edge, now to perform when volatility picks up and markets change, don’t be so cute on your entries and exits.

In effect, if it gets close and you want a position, pull the trigger, reduce size and get involved, and be prepared to reload.

The added volatility and your experience in the market should more than make up for any short term hits.

Are Great Traders Born or Bred?

  
  Education
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Harvard Business School Mark Sellers, founder of Chicago-based hedge fund Sellers Capital, argues that great traders are born and not bred. He believes that there are seven “structural assets” that cannot be taught, adding, ” They have to do with psychology. You can’t do much about that.”The traits:
1) The ability to buy when others are panicking, and vice versa
2) An obsession with the trading game
3) A willingness to learn from past mistakes
4) An inherent sense of risk based on common sense
5) A confidence in your convictions and a willingness to stick with them
6) An ability to have “both sides of your brain working” (i.e. to go beyond the math)
7) The ability to live through volatility without changing your investment thought process
I  think that some of the concepts discussed here are spot on (and I spend a great deal of time hammering home the importance of #7) , but I disagree with the overall idea that great traders are born, not made. I believe success in trading is not about a specific style, but rather about understanding your personality traits and then developing a trading style (and which product – i.e. stocks, commodities, fx) that fits you best.

10 One Liners For Traders

  
  Education
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• Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. It is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student, there is always someone smarter than you!

• “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.”

• Let volatility work in your favor, not against you.

• Watch what our “Politicos” do, not say.

• Markets tend to regress to the mean over time.

• Emotions can be the enemy of the trader and investor, as fear and greed play an important part of one’s decision making process.

• Portfolios heavy with underperforming stocks rarely outperform the stock market!

• Even the best looking chart can fall apart for no apparent reason. Thus, never fall in love with a position but instead remain vigilant in managing risk and expectations. Use volume as a confirming guidepost.

• When trading, if a stock doesn’t perform as expected within a short time period, either close it out or tighten your stop-loss point.

• As long as a stock is acting right and the market is “in-gear,” don’t be in a hurry to take a profit on the whole position, scale out instead.

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