“I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated; they are recurring patterns that appear over and over. This is because the stocks were being driven by humans- and human nature never changes”.
-Jesse Livermore (Considered by many to be the greatest stock market operator ever. Made 100 million dollars in 1929 stock market crash. Made several other multi-million dollar fortunes in his trading career).
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“You have to cut your losses fast. The secret for winning in the stock market does not include being right all the time. The key is to lose the least amount possible when you are wrong”.
-William J. O’Neil (In my opinion, the best stock market operator in the world today. Has made an incredible fortune trading the stock market. O’Neil is the founder of Investors Business Daily. Much of my stock market education and training has been from William J. O’Neil).
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“Whatever method you use to enter a trade, the most critical thing is that if there is a major trend, your approach should assure that you get in that trend”.
-Richard Dennis (Turned 400 dollars into a fortune of at least 200 million dollars by using his remarkable trading skills).
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“I am primarily a trend trader. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell”.
-Ed Seykota (One of the greatest traders of all time. Turned 5000 dollars into an incredible 15 million dollars or more).
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“The most important rule of trading is to play great defense”.
-Paul Tudor Jones (An amazingly consistent and successful trader. In 2006, earned a whopping 750 million dollars).
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“Being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong”.
-Bernard Baruch (Fantastic trader who earned ten’s of millions of dollars in the first part of the 20th century).
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“The greatest safety lies in putting all your eggs in one basket and watching that basket”.
-Gerald M. Loeb (Amassed many millions in the stock market during his long career).
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“I am looking for the strongest stocks in the market, in terms of both earnings and the technical picture”
-David Ryan (Multiple time winner in the stock division of the U.S. Investing Championships).
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“Most of my success has been due to my hanging on while my profits mounted. There is the big secret”.
-Arthur W. Cutten (Gained wealth and prominence, early in the 20th century, as a commodity trader, mostly in the wheat market.
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“I think the secret is cutting down the number of trades you make. The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone”.
– Michael Marcus (In a ten-year period, he multipled his company account by an incredible 2500 times).
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“Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. I know where I’m getting out before I get in”.
-Bruce Kovner (One of the world’s largest traders in the 1980’s. Made profits of over 300 million trading for himself).
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“I try to assemble facts and decide what kind of scenario I think will unfold”.
-Bill Lipschutz (One of the most successful currency traders ever).
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“Virtually every successful trader I know ultimately ended up with a trading style suited to his personality”.
-Randy McKay (Turned $2000 into $70,000 his first year of trading. Went on to double digit million dollar gains).
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“The biggest misconception is the widespread belief that it is easy to make a living trading in the stock market”.
-Stuart Walton (Fantastic stock trading track record in the 1990’s).
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“If you decide to trade for a living, you have to treat it just like any other business endeavor and go into it with a plan”.
-Mark D. Cook (Great annual returns trading the markets).
Archives of “stocks” tag
rssCutting Losses
I simply cut my losses and by doing so kept them small. I’ve had my share of bad decisions in my trading career and keeping losses small in order to avoid huge losses is the toughest part.
Why is that so? From a psychological point of view nobody wants to sell at a loss as in most situations in life making mistakes and admitting them is associated with being a loser. That’s why most people prefer sticking to a losing position. They don’t want to be labeled a loser. So they start hoping their position will turn around and end up being a huge winner. The stock then keeps tanking. Then they hope they will be able to sell for a break even. The stock then goes down even more. That’s when being objective and balanced isn’t possible anymore. Losses have become huge and they are trapped.
The cost is simply huge. You lost money. You lost time. There’s an opportunity cost as well as during that time other stocks would have made you a profit. You lost huge amounts of energy as you couldn’t get this stock out of your mind.
Notice I’ve made ample use of the word ‘huge’. Avoid huge losses at all cost. Avoid thinking in terms of huge gains as well. Stay balanced. Stay focused and calm.
Method-Pyschology-Risk Management for Traders
METHOD:
- I am a trend hunter I want a stock that has the potential to move 10-20 points in my favor.
- My top pivot points for trades is the 5 day EMA (3 & 7DEMA for NF )
- I play the long side in bull markets primarily and the short side in bear markets primarily.
- I go long the top monster stocks in up trending markets.
- I never short a monster stock above the 50 day moving average.
- I short the biggest junk stocks in down trends, the ones that are unprofitable and made major missteps with customers and investors.
- I like to trade with all time highs or all time lows in stocks with in striking distance.
- Moving averages are my best indicators.
- I never have targets, I let a trend run until it reverses.
- My watch list for longs is the Investor’s Business Daily IBD50.
- I use Darvas Boxes at times to trade stocks.
PSYCHOLOGY:
- I am not trying to prove anything about myself I am only trying to make money.
- I will quickly admit when I am wrong when a stock moves against me enough to show me I am wrong.
- I trade my own method, I do not trade others advice.
- If I am losing and very unconformable with a trade I get out of it.
- I trade position sizes I am mentally comfortable with.
- I do not try to predict the future I look for what the chart is telling me.
- I trade the chart not my personal opinions.
- I am not afraid to chase a trending stock.
- I understand that I chose my entries, exits, risk, and position size and the market chooses when I am profitable.
- I do not worry about losing money I worry about losing my trading discipline.
- I have faith in myself and my method.
- I do not blame myself for losses.
- I do not blame myself for losses where I followed my rules.
RISK MANAGEMENT:
- I attempt to never lose more than X % of my total capital on any one trade.
- I NEVER add to a losing trade.
- I use trailing stops to get out of winning trades.
- I use mental stop losses to get out of losing trades.
- I use position size to limit my risk.
- I use stock options to limit my risk.
- I know my biggest advantage in trading is small losses and big profits.
- I never expose more than X % of my capital to risk at any one time.
- I understand the market environment I am trading in.
- I understand the volatility of the stock I am trading.
Dollar and Stocks Still Moving in Opposite Directions
The red line in the chart below is not an inverse of the S&P 500. It’s actually an intraday chart of the dollar. No sooner than one goes up, the other goes down
You Are Having Trading Skill or You are Lucky ?
Traders with skill have large gains after 100 trades and are relatively quiet, traders that were lucky have huge gains after a few trades and are very loud, then very quiet for the next few trades that usually bring their account to zero.
Traders with skill risk 1% to 2% of their trading capital per trade and win in the long term, traders that are just lucky risk the majority of their account for a few big wins in the short term but lose in the long term when their luck runs out.
Traders with skill use a successful method with many stocks in different markets, traders with just luck are only successful with one stock and when its up trend ends their winning streak ends.
Traders with skill have winning track records over many years, traders with only luck only have winning track records measured in months.
Traders with skill have risk management as a top priority, traders with only luck do not understand why risk management is important, yet.
Traders with skill are trading like it is a business, traders operating with luck are trading like they are a gambler in a casino.
Traders with skill use a trading plan and back tested method, traders with luck make guesses and are sometimes right.
Traders with skill have done their homework, traders with luck think they are naturally smarter than the market.
Traders with skill are disciplined and stick to their system, traders with luck make bets based on opinions.
Would you rather be lucky for a few trades or skillful for a few years? Lucky traders give back their profits when their luck runs out. Skillful traders are eventually financially interdependent due to their long term capital growth.
Noise
75% of the price movement in most stocks takes place in 20% of the time. The rest is nothing but noise within a range. Relevant information that causes repricing doesn’t change quickly and frequently. This is why trends exist. Higher prices often attract more buyers and lower prices attract more sellers until the rules of the game change. Focus on the main drivers and forget the rest.
Rules By Jesse Livermore
“In cotton I was very successful in my trading for a long time. I had my theory about it and I absolutely lived up to it. Suppose I had decided that my line would be forty to fifty thousand bales. Well I would study the tape as I told you, watching for an opportunity either to buy or to sell. Suppose the line of least resistance indicated a bull movement. Well I would buy ten thousand bales. After I got through buying that, if the market went up ten points over my initial purchase price, I would take on another ten thousand bales. Same thing. Then if I could get twenty points’ profit, or one dollar bale, I would buy twenty thousand more. That would give me my line–my basis for my trading. But if after buying the first ten or twenty thousand bales, it showed me a loss, out I’d go. I was wrong. It might be I was temporarily wrong. But as I have said before it doesn’t pay to start wrong in anything.
As I think I also said before, this decribes what I may call my system for placing my bets. It is simple arithmetic to prove that it is a wise thing to have the big bet down only when you win, and when you lose to lose only a small exploratory bet, as it were. If a man trades in the way I have described, he will always be in the profitable position of being able to cash in on the big bet.
I recollect Pat Hearne. Ever hear of him? Well, he was a very well-known sporting man and he had an account with us. Clever chap and nervy. He made money in stocks, and that made people as him for advice. He would never give any. If they asked him point-blank for his opinion about the wisdom of their commitments he used a favourite race-track maxim of his: “You can’t tell till you bet.” He traded in our office. He would buy one hundred shares of some active stock and when, or if, it went up 1 per cent he would buy another hundred. On another point’s advance, another hundred shares; and so on. He used to say he wasn’t playing the game to make money for others and therefore he would put in a stop loss order one point below the price of his last purchase. When the price kept going up he simply moved up his stop with it. On a 1 per cent reaction he was stopped out. He declared he did not see any sense in losing more than one point, whether it came out of his original margin or out of his paper profits. (more…)
Investment Wisdom
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The 3 Laws that Govern Stock Prices
Contrary to popular belief by the majority of the general population and even investors and traders stocks are not tied to their fundamental values or even the companies that sold the shares to raise capital. Stock prices are tied to simply what the current buyer and seller in the market is willing to exchange ownership for. That is what determines price, nothing else. So the big question is what are the rules that govern the change in a stocks price?
The laws of economics governs price movement in the market. There are three laws articulated by legendary trader and market pioneer Richard Wyckoff that captures what causes current price reality and what changes it.
The Law of Supply and Demand
The excess of demand (buyers) over supply (sellers) causes a stock’s price to go up. The excess of supply over demand causes a stock’s price to go down.
The price is determined by the law of supply and demand.
The price moves up and down to balance the supply and demand to the equilibrium.
“The stock is only worth the other people are willing to pay for it”— (more…)
10 Great Quotes of Jesse Livermore
“Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong.” -Jesse Livermore
“The good speculators always wait and have patience, waiting for the market to confirm their judgment.” -Jesse Livermore
“{Limit} interest in too many stocks at one time. It is much easier to watch a few than many.” -Jesse Livermore
“Experience has proved to me that the real money made in speculating has been: “IN COMMITMENTS IN A STOCK OR COMMODITY SHOWING A PROFIT RIGHT FROM THE START. ” -Jesse Livermore
“As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take a profit. You know you are right, because if you were not, you would have no profit at all. Let it ride and ride along with it. It may grow into a very large profit, and as long as the “action of the market does not give you any cause to worry,” have the courage of your convictions and stay with it.” -Jesse Livermore
“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. ” “Never average losses. ” Let that thought be written indelibly upon your mind.” -Jesse Livermore
“One should never sell a stock, because it seems high-priced.” -Jesse Livermore
“Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. ” The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking the first small loss. In so doing, he keeps his account in order so that at some future time, when he has a constructive idea, he will be in a position to go into another deal, taking on the same amount of stock as he had when he was wrong.” -Jesse Livermore
“It is significant that a large part of a market movement occurs in the last forty-eight hours of a play, and that is the most important time to be in it.” -Jesse Livermore
“A speculator should make it a rule each time he closes out a successful deal to take one-half of his profits and lock this sum up in a safe deposit box. The only money that is ever taken out of Wall Street by speculators is the money they draw out of their accounts after closing a successful deal.” -Jesse Livermore