These are stocks that jump 100%, 200% or more in a span of several days. The top of the pattern is marked by buying exhaustion and the best way to determine the exact top is to look out for the following candlestick patterns: doji, gravestone doji, long-legged doji, shooting stars, dark could covers, and bearish engulfings. All patterns are typically accompanied by the highest volume bar on the entire chart. Entering on the topping day may provide more profit, but it is riskier. The next day is considered the confirmation day in which the stock breaks down. The 2nd option for entry (less risk) is to enter at the very beginning of the breakdown.
Archives of “confirmation” tag
rssLivermores Seven Trading Lessons
Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.
As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.
Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.
Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.
There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade – never when it goes against you.
Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.
Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game.
Lesson Number Four: Let profits ride until price action dictates otherwise.
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”
One method that satisfies the desire for profit and subdues the fear of a losing trade is to take one half of your profit off at a predetermined level, put a stop at breakeven on the rest, and let it play out without micromanaging the position. (more…)
7 Trading Rules of Jesse Livermore’s
Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.
As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.
Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.
Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.
There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade – never when it goes against you.
Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.
Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game. (more…)
Trading Notes for Traders
Traders should work on replacing subjectivity with cut and dry analysis. Keep yourself in a box and stick with what you know. The markets are complicated enough without our tendency to over analyze. All a trader needs is to learn how to read a small number of indicators and trade them well. Find a niche; your own niche. Simplification not complication makes a successful trader. When contemplating a trade think first and foremost about how much you are willing to lose before you attempt to calculate your expected gain. A stock is, at any given time, in the process of testing a specific price level. Questions that make a trading decision valid: WHY are you considering a trade? WHEN will you enter it? WHERE do you see it going? Multiple time frame correlation is important for high probability trades. Let the chart tell you its story. OBEY your rules of engagement…ALWAYS. Be well paid to be a follower. Loss of mental capital (drive, will, confidence) is greater than loss of monetary capital. Let the price action CONFIRM your trade analysis. Example: let a break-out test the break-out first. Trading Errors: The “Fudge” Factor 1. Trying to catch a falling knife. 2. Picking Tops 3. Failure to wait for confirmation. 4. Lack of patience. 5. Lack of a clear strategy. 6. Failure to assume responsibility. 7. Failure to quantify risk. |
RESISTANCE, DROP
Resistance is a powerful word, but in the market it can mean the end of a long climb up the latter of a successful bullish run. Points of resistance aren’t necessarily concrete, think of them more as a tightened rubber band that if you push into it to hard, it can send you plummeting very quickly.
Resistance is what it implies, a possible push against current price action. There are two correct responses you can have at a resistance, turn back (with a proper candlestick confirmation), or wait to see if the resistance is overcome, You never want to go head on into resistance because chances are you will get your butt handed to you. The other thing you don’t want to do is automatically turn back without a little push. YOU DON’T ALWAYS WANT OR HAVE TO BE IN THE MARKET. There are times when you need to be on the sidelines in observation mode; at a point near resistance is one of those times. Trying to break resistance is like trying to run over a locomotive on a bicycle. You can’t do it!! Your best option at resistance is to rest to see either the strength or weakness of your price action. Whether price is successful at demolishing or chipping away resistance or does a turnabout, wait until it makes a concrete decision before following. NOTE: wherever price leads, follow until you get a signal that it is no longer safe to do so, or until you have had your fill of a nice fat profit.
Let other traders jump in front of the locomotive to slow it down; DON’T YOU DO IT! Save yourself and wait until it is safe. Resistance points can either be safety zones put in place to help you protect your profits or the force and authority to crush you if you try to cross the line. When you come to a resistance point it means STOP!!!!, DO NOT PROCEED WITH CAUTION it is a RED LIGHT, when it is green, proceed with caution because there are times when price will break resistance only to fall back limp under the weight of the break through triumph.
Good Vs. Great Trading
Good traders are able to identify opportunities in the market, plan trades, execute trades, and manage trades at a reasonable level. A good trader identifies the opportunity, plans the trade, and executes the trade. He takes his losses with discipline. One might think that great traders are similar to good traders but just better. The reality is that great traders are distinctly different from good traders. The difference is not merely a difference in measure but a difference in kind.
Great trading is actually much closer to gambling. One of the key differences between great trading and good trading is that great traders don’t just play the odds: great traders play the unknown. The market simply isn’t predictable enough – enough of the time — to allow for the type of returns that great traders seek. So, great traders are much more likely to be going out into that unknown space. This seeking out the unknown always involves a cost. The cost for greatness is the potential for loss, even significant loss. A great trader will typically take more risks. The risks could involve taking trades with higher uncertainties (less confirmation), higher risk per trade (giving a trade more room), and in general just a higher level of risk. This increased level of risk taking is balanced by increased trading skill.
The problem with trading just trading well is that the game, the trading game, is really close to a zero sum game, even when played perfectly. The focus on limiting risk tends to ignore the reality that every business has to make a profit to survive. The problem with trying to avoid risks is that it tends to push the game to such a competitive level such that the trader must trade at a near perfect level just to break even and nobody can trade perfectly forever. Eventually mistakes are made and losses occur. Great traders are more creative. They move laterally and find creative solutions. Great traders don’t really compete against others. It is more of a dance. Instead of playing the games against others, they make up their own game. (more…)
Livermores Seven Trading Lessons
Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.
As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.
Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.
Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.
There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade – never when it goes against you.
Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.
Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game.
Lesson Number Four: Let profits ride until price action dictates otherwise.
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”
One method that satisfies the desire for profit and subdues the fear of a losing trade is to take one half of your profit off at a predetermined level, put a stop at breakeven on the rest, and let it play out without micromanaging the position.
Lesson Number Five: Buy all-time new highs.
The psychological merits of buying all-time or 52-week highs are immense and shouldn’t be discounted as a part of your overall strategy. (more…)
Trading Your Personality
It’s been said too many times to count – that you must trade according to your personality. In the movies they might call it “being true to yourself” or something cheesy, but it’s a necessity in this job.
Recently I was asked which chart patterns I prefer to trade, continuation chart patterns or reversal chart patterns. My answer was that while I will actually trade either, I suppose the continuation and breakout type of patterns are the ones I trade more often than reversals or buying on support levels.
I don’t think one setup is superior to the other, they both have their pros and cons, and you have to go with what fits your style best.
Buying on support is an anticipatory play, which may take a few extra days to get moving. It can give you a lower cost basis than another trading strategy, but will require greater patience on your part while you wait for the stock to find traction.
Buying a stock which is breaking out puts you (by definition) in a stock that’s already on the move. This is a confirmation play. You get instant feedback on how your trade is developing and how much momentum the stock has.
The setups you select for your trades need to incorporate your personality tendencies on managing those trades once you are in them. For me, I tend to be a bit impatient and I want to know as soon as possible whether or not I’m right or wrong on a trade. Other traders don’t live in the left lane, and they’re willing to give a stock some time to get moving one way or another. They place their protective stop and turn their attention to something else in the meantime while waiting for their trade to make a move. Personally, I prefer to have my money at risk for the shortest timeframe possible. I really prefer the times when the market conditions are producing breakout plays and continuation patterns like the bull flag or ascending triangle patterns.
So, when you’re doing your homework and looking for quality setups to trade, be sure to consider the ones which fit your personality and your style of trading. Those will be the trades which you ultimately will manage the best.
Livermores Seven Trading Lessons
Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.
As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.
Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.
Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.
There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade – never when it goes against you. (more…)
15 Types of Traders-Challenges Specific to Each one
1)Strategic Trader :This type of trader has a great chance of success but is (a ) likely not to recognize emotional mistakes ,(b ) lean toward perfectionism ,and (c ) have a strong desire to be right
2)Planning Trader :Again ,this type of trader has an excellent chance of success.Your major challenge is the desire for excitement and the need to be right.You easily could become bored with trading and do things to lessen the boredom and thus limit your profits.
3)Detailed Trader :The detailed trader has a good chance of success,but you could be so into details of what you are doing that your miss the big profits.
4)Administrative Trader :You may be overly critical of yourself but not recognize mistakes that are right in front of your eyes.Furthermore ,under stress your may question your commitment to trading because your don’t find it satisfying.An administrative trader also has a good chance of success.
5)Facilitative Trader :This kind of trader has an above average chance of success.However ,you could have a problem with logic and ideas because you are always finding something new.Furthermore ,you may need external confirmation of your ideas ,beliefs ,and systems.
6)Innovative Trader :You have an above -average chance of success.However ,you probably want external confirmation for everything you do and have a strong need for a mentor.Furthermore ,you may tend to abandon a good system prematurely if it goes against you because of your emotional reactions.
7 )Value-driven Trader :You have an above -average chance of success in trading but find that you must do things your way.In addition ,discipline ,follow -through ,and attention to details will always be a problem for you.You also may find trading boring and do things to fulfill your need for excitement.
8)Independent Trader :You are driven by logic and could easily reject systems that work well because you don’t understand them logically.Furthermore ,your trading could dominate your time and leave you socially isolated.That said ,you have a good chance of success if you apply yourself.
The remaning 7 types have a much more difficult time becoming successful in trading arena. (more…)