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Yes, We are Unique

  
Analysis, Education
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I remember the quote from Bernard Baruch :

“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope.”

Traders & Readers are sending us mail and writing that we are Born Bears.

-101% its wrong thinking.We write/recommend and trade according to levels only.Not interested in Economy ,Inflation figure,Monsoon or Corporate Results and basically I dont trust any Corporate !!

No Tantra ,No Mantra & No Yantra.

No Astrology !!

Just power of chart and our Vision.

Today our market forecast has confirmed it, nth time.

Refer to this exclusivity in our web-site.

As per the forecast market was weak till 10-35, then recovered to +ve zone uptill 1-35 and as per the unique forecast, collapsed from 1-35 only to dwindle down heavily till end. 

After 5185, our next Nf Hurdle was 5215, it went upto 5202.  On downside after it broke our 2nd support at 5146, we alerted all our Subscribers to Sell

 everything and Short market for a possible break 5114 where after it would be a bloodbath.  You all know NF collapsed to 5058, 150 points loss from the top.

Weak Opening, V recovery from 10-35, and from 1-30 bear-attack… so don’t have any long position in market.

Expected Bank NF will crash upto 9650.But it tumbled upto 9540 level….(Our Subscribers knows…..many more things )

Now u all tell if anything else is left in this market. That’s why our recently concluded Subscription enrolment was such an astounding hit.

All our subscribers / readers are busy in counting

their earnings while all Bulls ,Blue Channel (Analysts ),Website Analysts are singing


 

Technically Yours

Anirudh Sethi/Baroda/India


5 Great Quotes From Jesse Livermore

  
Analysis, Education
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1. The only leading indicator that matters

Watch the market leaders, the stocks that have led the charge upward in a bull market. That is where the action is and where the money is to be made. As the leaders go, so goes the entire market. If you cannot make money in the leaders, you are not going to make money in the stock market. Watching the leaders keeps your universe of stocks limited, focused, and more easily controlled.

2. Patterns repeat because human nature hasn’t changed for thousand of years

There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly build into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.
All through time, people have basically acted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. This is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.
I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humans — and human nature never changes.

3. Your first loss is your best loss. (more…)

Jesse Livermore with Edwin Lefevre, dated circa 1922

  
  Education
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JL-ASRWhat follows is a never before published “interview” with Jesse Livermore.

Conducted by Edwin Lefevre, dated circa 1922, this “interview” reveals great insights into the mind of the famous trader. As we will see, the wisdom imparted here could change our entire perspective on the speculative game we love and enjoy.  It might even change our lives.  I took the liberty of editing it due to its length.

Lefevre:  Hello Mr Livermore.  Thank you for taking the time to conduct this series of interviews with me.  It is my understanding that you do not grant many interviews, so I am honored.

Livermore: You are very welcome.  I appreciate the respect but you do not have to address me as Mr.  Jesse, or my nickname, the boy plunger, will suffice.

Lefevre: And where did you get the name boy plunger?

Livermore: It was during the early days when I was trading small lots in the bucket shops, where the man who traded in twenty shares at a clip was suspected of being J.P. Morgan traveling incognito.  I didn’t have a following.  I kept my business to myself.  As it was, it did not take long for the bucket shops to get sore on me for beating them.  I’d walk in and plank down my margin, but they’d look at it without making a move to grab it.  They’d say nothing doing. That is when they started calling me the boy plunger.  I had to move from shop to shop, even to the point of changing my name.  I couldn’t put trades on without getting cheated on the quotes.  This was in Boston, so I then moved to where the real action was, to New York.  I was 21 at the time.

Lefevre:  Were you making money? (more…)

Trading Your Personality

  
  Education
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It’s been said too many times to count – that you must trade according to your personality. In the movies they might call it “being true to yourself” or something cheesy, but it’s a necessity in this job.

Recently I was asked which chart patterns I prefer to trade, continuation chart patterns or reversal chart patterns. My answer was that while I will actually trade either, I suppose the continuation and breakout type of patterns are the ones I trade more often than reversals or buying on support levels.

I don’t think one setup is superior to the other, they both have their pros and cons, and you have to go with what fits your style best.

Buying on support is an anticipatory play, which may take a few extra days to get moving. It can give you a lower cost basis than another trading strategy, but will require greater patience on your part while you wait for the stock to find traction.

Buying a stock which is breaking out puts you (by definition) in a stock that’s already on the move. This is a confirmation play. You get instant feedback on how your trade is developing and how much momentum the stock has.

The setups you select for your trades need to incorporate your personality tendencies on managing those trades once you are in them. For me, I tend to be a bit impatient and I want to know as soon as possible whether or not I’m right or wrong on a trade. Other traders don’t live in the left lane, and they’re willing to give a stock some time to get moving one way or another. They place their protective stop and turn their attention to something else in the meantime while waiting for their trade to make a move. Personally, I prefer to have my money at risk for the shortest timeframe possible. I really prefer the times when the market conditions are producing breakout plays and continuation patterns like the bull flag or ascending triangle patterns.

So, when you’re doing your homework and looking for quality setups to trade, be sure to consider the ones which fit your personality and your style of trading. Those will be the trades which you ultimately will manage the best.

4 Trading Fears

  
  Education
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As Mark Douglas points out in his great book about trading psychology is that the majority of traders lose because of wrong thinking, misplaced emotions, and wanting to be right. We know fear and greed drive the market prices far more than fundamentals do. However fear makes traders do the wrong things at the wrong time. Here are four great examples of fear over ruling sound trading strategies.

Here are more thoughts about these four fears:

The fear of being wrong: Traders fear being wrong so much they will hold a small loss until it becomes a huge loss. Even adding to the loss in the hopes of it coming back and getting to even. Don’t do this, holding on to a loser after it hits your predetermined stop loss is like being a reverse trend trader. Do not be afraid of being wrong small be afraid of being wrong BIG.

The fear of losing money: New traders hate to lose money, they do not quite understand yet that they will lose 40%-60% of the time in the long term. We should come to expect the small losses and wait for the big wins patiently. Many times traders fear this so much that they have a hard time taking an entry out of fear of losing. If you can’t handle the losses as part of the business, you can’t trade.

The fear of missing out: The opposite of the fear of losing money is the fear of losing potential profits. This causes traders to watch a stock go up and up, miss the primary trend, then not being able to take it any more and get in late just in time for the trend to reverse and lose money. Trade at your systems proper entry point do not chase a stock because you are afraid to miss out on some profits.

The fear of leaving money on the table: When your trailing stop is hit get out of the trade. If your rules tell you to get out after a parabolic run up and stall then exit. You must be disciplined on taking money off the table while it is there. Being greedy for that last few dollars when your system says to sell could lead to major losses of paper profits. Let your winners run but when the runner gets to tired to continue: bank your profits.

Larry Hite on Risk

  
  Education
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LarryHiteSome wise views from Larry Hite:

“We don’t really trade silver…we don’t trade the S&P…we trade the differences. We really are risk managers. We take on risks, try to exploit them and we leave when they turn against us. That is what we get paid for. Basically we are in the risk transfer business. We take on what people want to sell, sell what people want to buy and hope to make a profit. The reason why one goes to a portfolio is because there are real limits to perfect knowledge. I’ll give you an example. Say you knew which commodity, stock or currency would appreciate the most in the following year, and you knew exactly what its price would be. We did this experiment looking backwards in fact in our database. The question of when you take a position is how are you going to trade the line…how much of a position are you going to leverage. Now, if you have perfect knowledge, would you leverage 5 to 1, would you leverage 10 to 1, 2 to 1? Well it turns out that if you leverage more than 3 to 1 that you are a loser. Because we found that if you did 3 to 1 you would have, even with perfect knowledge, you could go down a third. So that, the only perfect knowledge you could have, would be if you knew every wiggle on the line. Then you would know exactly how much to leverage. But you don’t.”

Learn from Turtle Trading

  
  Education
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“Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment.” Barry Le Platner

All beginning traders lack one key ingredient for success: experience.  Experience is simply exposure to a particular activity over an extended period of time.  Good judgment is a by-product of experience and is necessary for success in all areas of life, from driving, cooking, golf, to surgery, etc, as well as, you guessed it, stock and options trading.  We can sum it up as follows:

EXPERIENCE = TIME + SPECIFIC ACTIVITY = GOOD JUDGMENT

Unfortunately, very few beginning traders have enough “education” money to succeed at trading because good judgment requires that a person remain focused on a specific activity long enough to draw sound conclusions.  In other words, good judgment is based on trust in the specific activity without doubting its overall effectiveness.  (more…)

Perfectionism And Trading

  
  Education
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Perfectionism: Many traders try very hard to always be right. If the market shows that they are wrong with a loss, they work very hard to turn that loss into a profit. They may average down on a losing position or just hold the stock after their stop price has been exceeded with the hope that the market will turn around and turn their loser into a winner. It is the pursuit of perfectionism that causes us to ignore that trading stocks is a matter of probability. Trying to always be right leads to failure, for eventually, one of those losers fails to turn around and gives the trader a portfolio crushing loss.

Stock Market Rules to Remember in 2014

  
  Education
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HNY-2014Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. It is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student, there is always someone smarter than you!

• “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.”

• Let volatility work in your favor, not against you.

• Watch what our “Politicos” do, not say.

• Markets tend to regress to the mean over time.

• Emotions can be the enemy of the trader and investor, as fear and greed play an important part of one’s decision making process.

• Portfolios heavy with underperforming stocks rarely outperform the stock market!

• Even the best looking chart can fall apart for no apparent reason. Thus, never fall in love with a position but instead remain vigilant in managing risk and expectations. Use volume as a confirming guidepost.

• When trading, if a stock doesn’t perform as expected within a short time period, either close it out or tighten your stop-loss point. (more…)

A Bad Teacher

  
  Education
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The World’s Worst Teacher

The market often rewards bad behavior. You exit a stock because your stop is hit. You are okay with this because you followed your plan. The market then immediately reverses. You begin to think, “If only I stayed with the position.” The next time the market goes against you, you decide you are not going to get tricked again. This time though, the market does not reverse and what started out as a small manageable loss is now huge.

The market will give you loss after loss forcing you to abandon a methodology right before it takes off without you. On the flip side, the market will lull you into a false sense of confidence. You trade larger and larger, taking on excessive risk. You print money until your risks become so excessive that one or two bad trades wipe you out.

Learn from the market, but realize that sometimes it can be a lousy instructor.

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