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Trading commandments

  
  Education
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ten_commandments1.) Respect the price action but never defer to it.

Our eyes are valuable tools when trading, but if we deferred to the flickering ticks, stocks would be “better” up and “worse” down. That’s backward logic.

2.) Discipline trumps conviction.

No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always try to define your risk and never believe you’re smarter than the market.

3.) Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

It’s not necessary to play every day; it’s only necessary to have a high winning percentage on the trades you choose to make. Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.

4.) Emotion is the enemy when trading.

Emotional decisions have a way of coming back to haunt you. If you’re personally attached to a position, your decision-making process will be flawed. Take a deep breath before risking your hard-earned coin. See related link.

5.) Zig when others zag.

Sell hope, buy despair and take the other side of emotional disconnects. If you can’t find the sheep in the herd, chances are you’re it. (more…)

10 Trading Rules

  
  Education
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  1. Always wait for the setup: no setup – no trade. Agree. If your strategy doesn’t provide you a good risk/reward trade to make, then your job is to be patient until it does. Ironically, this often requires you to sit out some very good moves in the market and be inactive at the very same times you want to be aggressive.

  2. The best trades work almost right away. Agree, but with one important caveat – this rule greatly depends upon your strategy. Some strategies will require greater patience than others. If trading short-term, this rule is almost always correct, but if your time frames are longer, then you also have time on your side which requires more patience but that patience can pay off if your analysis is correct.
  3. Never take a big loss. If it doesn’t ‘feel’ right. Remove it! Disagree. Sometimes you have to take a big loss to prevent the risk of an even greater loss. Refusing to take a big loss when a mistake has been made can be very costly. I also disagree with the view that “If it doesn’t feel right, remove it.” Actually, some of the best trades you will ever make in your career are those trades that feel wrong and about as far from “right” as you can make it. Don’t believe me? Think over the last month or so about the trades you missed because they didn’t feel right but your strategy told you to hold or buy them anyway! It is also interesting to me that this rule says to trade by feel and at the same time advises in another rule not to trade by emotion. You can’t do one without the other!
  4. Always perfect your craft and sharpen your skills – good traders are constantly learning. Agree. No matter how skilled, intelligent, and successful you have been, there is always room for improvement. Moreover, because of the ever-growing changing nature of the market, what you do now to trade successfully won’t always work in every situation and the next market environment. Only experience and constant dedication to your job will provide you with the weapons for enduring market success.
  5. Be patient with winning trades – impatient with trades that fight back. Agree. Another good ways of saying – let your winners run and cut your losers short. The truth is that most individual traders and investors do the exact opposite – they sell winners too quickly and they hold losers far too long letting trades that went awry become long-term “trapped” investments. (more…)

7 Things You Must Do to Win at Trading.

  
  Education
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1. Managing the risk of ruin.
Do not risk so much on any one trade that 10 losing trades in a row will destroy your account. risking 1% to 2% of your trading capital per trade  is a great baseline for eliminating the risk of ruin.
2. Only trade with a positive risk/reward ratio.
Only take trades where your possible reward is at least two or three times the amount of capital you are risking in the trade.
3. Always trade in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Always trade in the direction of the flow of capital for your specific time frame. Shorting rockets and catching falling knives is not profitable in the long run.
4. Trade a robust system.
Back test and study your trading method, system, or style to ensure it is a winning system historically. The key is that it had bigger winners than losers over the long run in the past.
5. You must have the discipline to take your entries and exits as they are triggered.
You must take your entries when they trigger, your losses when they are hit, and your profits when a run is over to be a successful trader.
6. You must persevere through losing periods.
All successful traders were able to overcome their losing periods to come back and make the big money. If you quit you will not be around for the opportunity to win big.
7. If you want to be a winning trader you must follow your trading plan not your fear and greed.
Emotions will undo a trader more than anything else. Trading too big is due to greed, missing a winning trade due to no entry is a sign of fear, traders must trade the math and probabilities not their own opinions or emotions.

Links -Read and Update yourself

  
Education, LINKS
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  • That’s enough ‘kicking ass’, Mr President: Barack Obama’s attacks on BP may play well at home, but they are damaging millions of British people (London Times)
  • Banks with state debt ignore not-if-but-when default (Bloomberg)
  • As reported, Caja Madrid, Bancaja start moves to form Spain top savings bank, as BBVA says Spain may need €50 billion of capital to infuse into insolvent banks (Bloomberg)
  • BP weighs cutting dividend (WSJ)
  • Kerviel co-worker says SocGen should have known about trades (Bloomberg)
  • Waiting for inflation? It’s already here (Minyanville)
  • Enough with the economic recovery. It’s time to pay up (WaPo)
  • Irked CDO investors now targetting Merrill (WSJ)
  • Lehman emails that say “stupid” didn’t stay “just between us” (Bloomberg)
  • US firms holding record piles of cash underscoring worries about sustainability of financial recovery (WSJ)
  • Hungary PM says to issue second economic action plan in H2 (Reuters)
  • The bearish forecasters who rose to fame in the market crash of 2008 have, for the most part, not surrendered their pessimism. Their moment could be coming back around (BusinessWeek)
  • Risk/reward from current levels (Green Faucet)
  • The beginning of the end for Wall Street (RCM)
  • Daily humor from disgraced car czar Steve Rattner at the only venue desperate enough for clicks to still have him: How Wall Street stokes populist fury (MSN)

Are You a Gambler or a Trader?

  
  Education
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Here is a quick checklist to see if you are a bad gambler or a good trader:

  • Gamblers have a disadvantage to the house, good traders have a  system that gives them an advantage over other traders.
  • Gamblers always leave the casino broke no matter how much money they are up at any given time, good traders make money consistently.
  • Gamblers risk money randomly, good traders risk preset amounts of money on each trade.
  • Gamblers do not understand the odds against them, good traders understand the risk/reward ratio in every trade.
  • Gamblers enter a casino with no understanding of their risk of ruin, good traders manage their risk of ruin so it is close to zero.
  • Gamblers use emotions to make decisions, good traders use a trading plan for each decision.
  • Gamblers have ego problems when they are winning, good traders are humble while winning.
  • Gamblers go all in to win big, good traders trade just big enough to make a meaningful profit.

10 Keys to become Consistent Trader and increase your Profitability

  
  Education
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  1. Think of trading as a business and have a trading plan.
  2. Make sure that the strategies you select, match your personality so you can follow them.
  3. Have a realistic expectation of what your returns are. Include all the costs associated with your trading business.
  4. Have an idea for your risk/reward ratio. Don’t confuse trading with gambling. If you are increasing your position, make sure that your strategy warrants it.
  5. Have trading rules and follow them. Think about them as contingency plans. Because when your emotions are very high, the tendency is that you make very poor decisions that can cost you your account!
  6. Be flexible to the market conditions. When you see the market as it is, you have a much better chance of managing your portfolio and increasing your profits.
  7. Take responsibility for your results. Taking responsibility does not mean that you have control of everything that happens. It means that you have a choice of how to react to the things that happen.
  8. Find out why you are in the trading business. If it is for the excitement of it, find other hobbies or activities that you can get your excitement from.
  9. Keep track of your performance. This is a way of objectively looking at how you are doing, what you did right and what you learned. Be gentle with yourself.
  10. One of the most important things that people don’t handle is their Emotional Risk. When emotions run high, the quality of decisions goes down. It is very important to learn how to react to your emotions and thus increase your profits.

4 Stages ..

  
Analysis, Education
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Stan Weinstein’s concept of stage analysis as outlined in his excellent book entitled Secrets For Profiting In Bull and Bear Markets.  I decided to read Mr Weinstein’s book and find out what these stages are.  Here is what I discovered:

STAGE 1:  This is the basing area where a stock is losing downside momentum.  Buyers and sellers are starting to move in equilibrium and although the stock is not taking off it is not selling off either.  The buyers are not asking for a discount of the price but are buying what the holders no longer want.  This stage could last weeks to months so there is no need to jump in just yet. 

STAGE 2:  The advancing stage begins when the stock in question starts to break higher from the basing area.  This stage usually has a retest to the break-out area before the real move starts.  There begins here a pattern of higher lows best described as two steps forward and one step back.  These pullbacks provide a good risk/reward opportunity for the astute trader.

STAGE 3:  The top area is stage 3 where the good trending stock finds its eventual end.  The upward advance loses momentum and consolidation sets in.  The mirror image of stage 1 starts to take shape once again.  There are sharp moves and high volume in this stage and it is best to refrain from trading here as the reward/risk ratio is stacked against you.

STAGE 4:  The declining phase is the fourth and final phase as the factor’s that maintained the stock’s previous momentum are no longer present and the sellers step in.  The trader is advised to never go long in this stage or hold on to any winning positions.  It is time to exit. If a downtend begins then you can start to look at shorting the stock for the same reasons you went long: trend and momentum.

The market is really very simple in its design and structure; it is the trader who makes it difficult.  Although not all markets and stocks are text book examples of the four stages, the disciplined trader would be wise to consider whether or not the stages may be playing out in a current position or one being considered.  There may just be a very good reason why both Shannon and Weinstein have best selling books on the same subject.

The 10 trading commandments

  
  Education
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1.) Respect the price action but never defer to it.

Our eyes are valuable tools when trading, but if we deferred to the flickering ticks, stocks would be “better” up and “worse” down. That’s backward logic.

2.) Discipline trumps conviction.

No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always try to define your risk and never believe you’re smarter than the market.

3.) Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

It’s not necessary to play every day; it’s only necessary to have a high winning percentage on the trades you choose to make. Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.

4.) Emotion is the enemy when trading.

Emotional decisions have a way of coming back to haunt you. If you’re personally attached to a position, your decision-making process will be flawed. Take a deep breath before risking your hard-earned coin. See related link.

5.) Zig when others zag.

Sell hope, buy despair and take the other side of emotional disconnects. If you can’t find the sheep in the herd, chances are you’re it.

6.) Adapt your style to the market.

Different investment approaches are warranted at different junctures, and applying the right methodology is half the battle. Map a plan before stepping on the field so your time horizon and risk profile are in sync.

7.) Maximize your reward relative to your risk.

If you’re patient and pick your spots, edges will emerge that provide an advantageous risk/reward. There is usually one easy trade per session if you let it show itself.

8.) Perception is reality in the marketplace.

Identifying the prevalent psychology is necessary when assimilating the trading dynamic. It’s not what is, it’s what’s perceived to be that dictates the price action.

9.) When unsure, trade “in between.”

When in doubt, sit it out. Your risk profile should always be an extension of your thought process and when unsure, trade smaller until you establish a rhythm.

10.) Don’t let your bad trades turn into investments.

Rationalization has no place in trading. If you put on a position for a catalyst and it passes, take the risk off — win, lose or draw. Good traders know how to make money but great traders know how to take a loss.

There are obviously more rules but I’ve found these to be common threads through the years. Where you stand is a function of where you sit. So please understand that some of these guidelines may not apply to your particular approach.

As always, I share my process with hopes it adds value to yours. Find a style that works for you, always allow for a margin of error and trade to win, never trade “not to lose.”

And remember — any trader worth his or her salt has endured periods of pain but if we learn from those mistakes, they’ll morph into lessons. For if there wasn’t risk in this profession, it would be called “winning,” not “trading.”

3 Trading Myths

  
  Education
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Risk/reward is set in concrete. Nothing in trading, with the exception of the process, is set in stone. I have seen that stone sink many peoples trading careers. Risk/reward is as much of a filtering process as it is risk management. We look at market in terms of volatility, it keeps us out of slow times but it can dry up quickly. If it does we get out before the “reward”. If we see it expanding and everything lines up we will get out after the “reward”. We are always adjusting to the situation.

Every market move is a reason to trade. There are so many opportunities that there is no reason to create one. Once again, this is where the selection process comes in play. Staying on the sidelines is a trade. Being able to separate what happened from how you felt is important and makes it easier. Missing a move is part of being a trader, you can get over it now or later.

Traders take big risks. Bad traders take big risks. The difference between a retail and a professional is the professional trades bigger taking the same risk as the retail trader. That is in part because a professional sees more of the market and is flexible. They understand what they are comfortable risking and never get beyond that point with very limited exceptions. You cannot run away from the risk, it always reverts to the mean. But what you did before and when it does revert is the difference between profitable and unprofitable traders.

My Trading Lessons for Traders

  
  Education
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Read….When ever you are Free.

  • Prepare, be confident & be decisive

  • Follow my trading rules without exception

  • Plan every trade with profit exit, stop exit and risk/reward ranking

  • Trade only when you have time AND you have an edge

  • Formulate and write down a trading/investing plan

  • Exit a position at my stops and not “hope” it will recover tomorrow

  • Trade the market I actually see, not the one I think I will see

  • Focus more on what’s actually happening rather than what I wish would happen

  • Learn to prevent my skepticism and opinion over the economy from keeping me from making good trades

  • Have a plan every day to trade the market and to not let my opinions of the market interfere with my trading

  • Concentrate on rule based trade management and not the outcome of the specific trade

  • Follow price action as opposed to listening to the fundamental “experts”

  • Listen to the market signal rather than market noise

  • Don’t be afraid of making mistakes

  • To pay more attention to technical signals to determine purchase/sell points rather than emotion & personal reasoning

  • Have more confidence in my trade ideas and believe in myself more often

  • Do not have a bias but instead let the charts be the guide

  • Have the discipline and fortitude to stick to my trade plans

  • To improve my organization of stock lists and automation of stock alerts

  • Do not over-leverage

  • Select only the most favorable setups

  • Try not to over analyze every potential trade

  • Lose less when I am wrong

  • Spend less time reading words and more time reading charts

  • Stick with winners and sell the losers

  • Allocate 2-3 hours each day & 5 hours every weekend to finding attractive setups

  • Increase position size and be in the market more (more…)

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