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Ignorance, Greed, Fear and Hope

Ignorance, Greed, Fear and Hope

In the book “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator,” Edwin Lefevre writes: 
The speculator’s deadly enemies are: Ignorance, Greed, Fear and Hope.

In today’s commentary we will take a look at “Hope” and see why it is one of the four deadly enemies of successful market timing. 
Each of us has a desire for success. That is why we use market timing in our investing. Not only to increase our gains in both bull and bear markets, but importantly to protect our capital against loss. 
But that same desire for success can stand in the way of our ability to recognize reality, even if it is right before our eyes. All of us have a survival instinct that typically causes us to focus on good news. Bad news is avoided, or at least put on the back burner. 
When we take a position in the market, whether bullish or bearish, we hope it will be successful. Hope can be such a powerful emotion, that when the same trading plan that told us to enter a position originally, reverses and tells us to exit immediately, our emotions may very well focus on the possibility that if we just hold on a bit longer, any loss may be erased.  (more…)

4 Stages ..

Stan Weinstein’s concept of stage analysis as outlined in his excellent book entitled Secrets For Profiting In Bull and Bear Markets.  I decided to read Mr Weinstein’s book and find out what these stages are.  Here is what I discovered:

STAGE 1:  This is the basing area where a stock is losing downside momentum.  Buyers and sellers are starting to move in equilibrium and although the stock is not taking off it is not selling off either.  The buyers are not asking for a discount of the price but are buying what the holders no longer want.  This stage could last weeks to months so there is no need to jump in just yet. 

STAGE 2:  The advancing stage begins when the stock in question starts to break higher from the basing area.  This stage usually has a retest to the break-out area before the real move starts.  There begins here a pattern of higher lows best described as two steps forward and one step back.  These pullbacks provide a good risk/reward opportunity for the astute trader.

STAGE 3:  The top area is stage 3 where the good trending stock finds its eventual end.  The upward advance loses momentum and consolidation sets in.  The mirror image of stage 1 starts to take shape once again.  There are sharp moves and high volume in this stage and it is best to refrain from trading here as the reward/risk ratio is stacked against you.

STAGE 4:  The declining phase is the fourth and final phase as the factor’s that maintained the stock’s previous momentum are no longer present and the sellers step in.  The trader is advised to never go long in this stage or hold on to any winning positions.  It is time to exit. If a downtend begins then you can start to look at shorting the stock for the same reasons you went long: trend and momentum.

The market is really very simple in its design and structure; it is the trader who makes it difficult.  Although not all markets and stocks are text book examples of the four stages, the disciplined trader would be wise to consider whether or not the stages may be playing out in a current position or one being considered.  There may just be a very good reason why both Shannon and Weinstein have best selling books on the same subject.

Rules for Shorting

Basic Rules for Shorting Stocks

1. Shorting Momentum names is dangerous: Unless you are Superman, never step in front of a speeding locomotive

2. Valuation alone is insufficient reason to get short a stock — History teaches us that cheap stocks can get cheaper, dear stocks can get more expensive

3. ALWAYS work with a pre-determined loss – either a physical or mental stop loss — Never leave yourself open to infinite losses

4. Fundamentals tell you WHY to short something, not WHEN to short it. ALWAYS have some technical confirmation before shorting. Make a short selling wish list, then WAIT for technical confirmation. (We use Money Flow, Short Term Trend lines, Institutional Ownership, Analyst Ratings).

5. It is tough to be a contrarian: During Bull and Bear cycles, the Crowd IS the market.

You have to figure out two things:
…a) When the crowd is wrong — Doug Kass calls it “Variant Perception”
…b) When the crowd starts to get an inkling they are wrong

At the turns — not the major trends — is where contrarians clean up.

6. Look for Over-owned, Over-loved stocks: 95% Institutional ownership, All buys or Strong Buys (no sells), and 700% gains over the past few years are reasons to put names on your short selling wish list.  (That is how my partner Kevin Lane found and shorted Enron and Tyco back in the 1990s).

7. Beware the “Crowded Short“– they tend to become targets of the squeeze!

8. You can use Options to either juice your short returns, or pre-define your risk capital (options)

Top 10 Trading Influences

If New Trader University had a campus this would be the professors:

Dan Zanger is a world record holding trader that taught me to use in the money stock options on the biggest monster stocks to amplify my returns with no added risk at key points. He is the king of chart patterns.

Alexander Elder taught me how the trader’s Mind, Method, and Money Management have to all work together for a trader to be successful.

Michael Covel showed me how the best trend following traders in the world win over the long term by simply following the trend. Finding the big trends is now my focus above all else.

Jesse Livermore knew how to make a fortune in bull and bear markets, in commodities or stocks. His only weakness was the management of the risk of ruin. He made some of the biggest fortunes in the history of trading and also blew up his account more times than other legends.

Nicolas Darvas showed me how to ride monster stocks 100 points farther than anyone else seemed to believe they could go. His lessons also showed me how to miss bear market draw downs.

Van Tharp‘s marble game on how to manage the risk of ruin was a game changer for me. Managing risk is really what determines a trader’s long term survival not stock picking.

William O’Neil showed me how to pick the real winning stocks based on historical models not opinions. He has studied what has really made money in the stock market historically better than anyone else I know. I get my stock watch list from his publication Investor’s Business Daily’s IBD 50.

Ed Seykota is truly a master trader and he has the returns to prove it. Mr. Seykota believes that a trader’s psychology determines a trader’s success more than any other factor.  I believe him.

Jack Schwager wrote “Market Wizards” and really got into the specific nuts and bolts of what makes them win.

Paul Tudor Jones I have picked up a lot of trading wisdom form his documentary, quotes, and interview. He is truly one of the greatest  traders of our time.

If you decide to study these great traders keep what actually makes you money in the long term and discard what does not.

Rules for Shorting

When it comes to shorting, many people are in the dark. It is more challenging to be short, subject to squeezes; the return max out at 100% — versus unlimited upside for longs.

Over the years, I have put together some rules for shorting. These are pretty broad and general, but they have kept me out of trouble when

Basic Rules for Shorting Stocks
1. Shorting Momentum names is dangerous: Unless you are Superman, never step in front of a speeding locomotive
2. Valuation alone is insufficient reason to get short a stock — History teaches us that cheap stocks can get cheaper, dear stocks can get more expensive
3. ALWAYS work with a pre-determined loss – either a physical or mental stop loss — Never leave yourself open to infinite losses
4. Fundamentals tell you WHY to short something, not WHEN to short it. ALWAYS have some technical confirmation before shorting. Make a short selling wish list, then WAIT for technical confirmation. (We use Money Flow, Short Term Trend lines, Institutional Ownership, Analyst Ratings).
5. It is tough to be a contrarian: During Bull and Bear cycles, the Crowd IS the market.
You have to figure out two things:
…a) When the crowd is wrong — Doug Kass calls it “Variant Perception”
…b) When the crowd starts to get an inkling they are wrong
At the turns — not the major trends — is where contrarians clean up.
6. Look for Over-owned, Over-loved stocks: 95% Institutional ownership, All buys or Strong Buys (no sells), and 700% gains over the past few years are reasons to put names on your short selling wish list.  (That is how my partner Kevin Lane found and shorted Enron and Tyco back in the 1990s).
7. Beware the “Crowded Short“– they tend to become targets of the squeeze!
8. You can use Options to either juice your short returns, or pre-define your risk capital (options)

That is my short shorting list . . .

The Right Side

A quote from one the best traders of our time, Jesse Livermore: “It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation.”

Being a bull or a bear alone is meaningless out of the crucial context of the current market conditions. All that really matters for the great game of speculation is being on the “right side”, knowing when the markets are in a bull or a bear trend and deploying your speculative capital accordingly.

Once again Livermore ties speculation back into the speculator’s own internal emotions. He points out that it makes no sense to be bullish or bearish as a rule, but to carefully watch the market conditions in order to be on “the right side” at any given moment. Most speculators are burdened with an innate emotional bias to be bullish that is dangerous and must be eradicated if they wish to succeed in speculation. (more…)

STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS

trading-rules

After a year or so of trading, I found that I had standardized on about 15 rules/guidelines that have changed only slightly since then.

As requested, here are ten overriding principles that have survived the past five
years, through bull and bear markets:
Always live to fight another day
Entries must have a statistical edge
Patience and discipline
Be a jellyfish (swim with the current)
Trade only liquid securities
Focus on trying to capture the middle 80% of a move
Know your exit points when you open a position (and stick to them!)
When in doubt, reduce position size by 50%
Limit losses to 2% of total equity for any single trade
Start each day with a clean financial and emotional slate
The above list is relatively generic, but it helped provide me with a framework for
organizing how I would approach trading as a business, what strategies I should
adopt, how those strategies should be executed, and ultimately defining what success
should look like.

Trading rules are vitally important – as is knowing when they should be broken. Even
more important, I believe, is the process that one goes through in order to arrive at
these rules and to make sure that as new market situations unfold and new blind
spots are revealed, the rules and guidelines are enhanced to maximize the
opportunity for the trader to continue to grow and develop.

 

20 BOOKS EVERY TRADER SHOULD KNOW ABOUT.

As with every list, there will be disagreements.  ”Why is that book on the list?”  ”Whyisn’t that book on the list?”  I picked 20 books that stood out for me as a trader, that were a #valueadd (or a #valueloss) for one reason or another.  That doesn’t even have to mean that they are about trading.  For example, the “General Interest” section is made up of books that I think appeal to a trader’s mindset.

With that in mind, feel free to add your picks to the “comments” section, along with a sentence or two as to why you liked (or hated) them.

By the way, I was too lazy to link all the books, but you can find them all at Amazon.

Old School:  

The Market Wizards Series – Jack Schwager:  Chances are you will find these books on the shelf of any serious trader.  They are without a doubt the most comprehensive collection of interviews with superstar traders ever published.  However, their dirty little secret is that although they capture perfectly a moment in time, they are extremely dated and will give you almost no insight into today’s markets or how to trade them. Their value now is in showing how even the greatest traders initially struggled and often blew up (repeatedly) before becoming successful.

Stan Weinstein’s Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets – Stan Weinstein: This book was the first to quantify one of the most important concepts in trading; the four stages in which stocks move, which are the basing, advancing, topping, and declining stages.  Despite the fact that the cover of this book has not been updated since it was published in 1988, stage analysis is still relevant today.

How to Make Money In Stocks – O’Neil:  As an unnamed trader friend of mine recently said, all you need to do is review the charts in the first 150 pages of this book and you will be good to go.    These charts along with O’Neil’s annotations, give you a great foundation to understand the patterns stocks form before they go on massive runs. (more…)

The Timeless Wisdom Of Jesse Livermore

Why is stock investing hard?

Take a step back to think, and you realize that stock trading is the intersection of many realms of knowledge. Business. The economy. Finance. Innovation and technology. Government policy. The market. And don’t forget psychology.

The more an investor knows about each of these fields, the more likely he or she will excel in the task of buying and selling stocks properly.

In the field of psychology alone, you have multiple topics to ponder. The psychology of the herd is important. So is the psychology of the self.

Jesse Livermore, whose life spanned the 19th and 20th centuries, didn’t get a master’s degree in macroeconomics or a Ph.D. in cognitive behavior. But his experience, hard work, failures and successes across many bull and bear cycles make him one of the most respected stock and futures traders of all time. (more…)

“Four stages” of stock movement

First, I would like to point out that the four stages are not a concept I came up with. I learned of the four stages of; 1-Accumulation, 2- Markup, 3- Distribution and 4-Decline in Stan Weinstein’s excellent book “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets”. Briefly, accumulation is the process of buyers gaining control after a bearish trend, markup is the bullish phase represented by higher highs and higher lows, distribution is the process of sellers gaining control after the markup phase and decline is the bearish phase which is represented by lower highs and lower lows.