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Oil – Aramco says repairs to Saudi plant could take many months rather than weeks

DJ with the report on a more pessimistic outlook for repair time compared to what the market was led to believe last week.

Oil traders might like to take note, should be a bullish input (compared to otherwise)

Weekend HK press – China questions whether to continue trade talks with the US

An opinion piece from an account associated with State media Economic Daily newspaper expressed pessimism about whether trade talks with the United States should continue

This in response to US President Trump’s new tariffs on China
  • It said Trump’s latest threats as “destructive”
  • “The US has again stepped back from their promises for two reasons: to pressure China into fulfilling [America’s] expectations in the deal, and to attain someone’s political aims by meddling in the Sino-US trade talks”
  • via South China Morning Post
Negatives build for  China proxy trades (such as AUD)
An opinion piece from an account associated with State media  Economic Daily newspaper expressed pessimism about whether trade talks with the United States should continue 

Links -Read and Update yourself

  • That’s enough ‘kicking ass’, Mr President: Barack Obama’s attacks on BP may play well at home, but they are damaging millions of British people (London Times)
  • Banks with state debt ignore not-if-but-when default (Bloomberg)
  • As reported, Caja Madrid, Bancaja start moves to form Spain top savings bank, as BBVA says Spain may need €50 billion of capital to infuse into insolvent banks (Bloomberg)
  • BP weighs cutting dividend (WSJ)
  • Kerviel co-worker says SocGen should have known about trades (Bloomberg)
  • Waiting for inflation? It’s already here (Minyanville)
  • Enough with the economic recovery. It’s time to pay up (WaPo)
  • Irked CDO investors now targetting Merrill (WSJ)
  • Lehman emails that say “stupid” didn’t stay “just between us” (Bloomberg)
  • US firms holding record piles of cash underscoring worries about sustainability of financial recovery (WSJ)
  • Hungary PM says to issue second economic action plan in H2 (Reuters)
  • The bearish forecasters who rose to fame in the market crash of 2008 have, for the most part, not surrendered their pessimism. Their moment could be coming back around (BusinessWeek)
  • Risk/reward from current levels (Green Faucet)
  • The beginning of the end for Wall Street (RCM)
  • Daily humor from disgraced car czar Steve Rattner at the only venue desperate enough for clicks to still have him: How Wall Street stokes populist fury (MSN)

Trading Wisdom Via John Templeton

  1. There is only one long term investment objective, maximum total after tax return.
  2. Success requires study and work. It’s harder than you think.
  3. Outperforming the majority of investors requires doing what they are not doing.
  4. Buy when pessimism is at its maximum, sell when optimism is at its maximum.
  5. Therefore, buy what most investors are selling.
  6. Buying when others have despaired, and selling when they are full of hope, takes fortitude.
  7. Bear markets aren’t forever. Prices usually turn up a year before the business cycle hits bottom.
  8. Popularity is temporary. When a sector goes out of fashion, it stays out for many years.
  9. In the long run, stock index prices fluctuate around the EPS trend line.
  10. Stock index earnings fluctuate around replacement book value for the stocks in the index.
  11. Buy what other people buy and you will succeed or fail as other people do.
  12. Timing: buy when short term owners have finished selling and sell when they’ve finished their buying, always opposing the fashion.
  13. Stock prices fluctuate more than values. So stock indexes will never produce the best total return performance.
  14. Focus on value because most investors focus on outlooks and trends.
  15. Invest worldwide.
  16. Stock price fluctuations are proportional to the square root of the price.
  17. Sell when you find a much better bargain to replace what you are selling.
  18. When your method becomes popular, switch to an unpopular method.
  19. Stay flexible. No asset or method is forever.
  20. Stock market investing takes more skill than any other kind of investing.
  21. A person can outperform a committee.
  22. If you begin with prayer, you will think more clearly and make fewer mistakes.

OPTIMISTIC & PESSIMISM in Trading

PESSIMISM 

Pessimism is defined as a tendency to stress the negative or unfavorable or take the gloomiest possible view.  Obviously, the successful trader is not pessimistic. If so, then he would never trade in the first place or if he did, he would only trade short; a “permabear” if you will.  A purely pessimistic trader would also doubt his edge, doubt any market direction, only trade after the move has happened, cut his winners short while allowing his losers to run, overtrade, under invest, etc etc.  In other words, a purely pessimistic trader would break all the rules.

OPTIMISM

Optimism is defined as the inclination to anticipate the best possible outcome while believing that most situations work out in the end for the best.  The unsuccessful trader, especially the beginning trader, is optimistic about getting rich in the stock market.  No matter what every trade will eventually make money he reasons.  The optimistic trader also loads up on a “sure thing”, seeks to justify every trade via confirmation bias, adds to losers, brags about winners while hiding losers, refuses to develop as a trader, etc etc. Just as with pessimism, the optimistic trader breaks the rules.

Lessons From John Templeton

1. “I never ask if the market is going to go up or down, because I don’t know, and besides it doesn’t matter. I search nation after nation for stocks, asking: Where is the one that is lowest priced in relation to what I believe its worth?” Like every other great investor in this series of blog posts John did do not make bets based on macroeconomic predictions. What some talking head may say about markets as a whole going up or down was simply not relevant in his investing.  John focused on companies and not macro markets. He was a staunch value investor who once said: “The best book ever written [was Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham].

 2. “If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.  I’ve found my results for investment clients were far better here [in the Bahamas] than when I had my office in 30 Rockefeller Plaza.  When you’re in Manhattan, it’s much more difficult to go opposite the crowd.”  The mathematics of investing dictate that investing with the crowd means you will earn zero alpha, because the crowd is the market.  You must sometimes be willing to take a position that is different from the crowd and be right about that position, to earn alpha. John put it this way: “If you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else.” 

 3. “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.  Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.  People are always asking me: where is the outlook good, but that’s the wrong question…. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable? For those properly prepared in advance, a bear market in stocks is not a calamity but an opportunity.”   To be able to sell when people are most pessimistic requires courage.  Being courageous is easier if you are making bets with “house money.” Making bets with the rent money is always unwise.  Templeton believed problems create opportunity. For example, it was on the day that Germany invaded Poland that he saw one of his best buying opportunities since prices were so low and values so high.  Simply telling his broker that day to buy every stock selling under $1 yielded a 4X return for John.  (more…)

Optimism for Traders

  • When good things happens to an optimist, he says it’s permanent, pervasive, and personal. When a bad thing happens to an optimist, she says it’s temporary, specific, and not personal.
  • Because the optimistic trader looks with bright enthusiasm towards the future, she is able to be realistic about what has happened in the past and is happening in the present. A pessimistic trader who has limiting doubts about his future trading, may be unwilling to admit what has happened or is actually occurring.
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