Archives of “rally” tag

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Catalyst that could lead to a crash

  
Economy, Education
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“Chinese banks face state loans turmoil; about Rmb1,550B in questionable loans. “
This simple sentence reminds me of the Japanese Banks prior to the big Nikkei crash, that has not yet recovered (over 20 years).
What did we learn from the subprime mess ? The banks lied to us …..
What did we learn about the Nikkei crash ? The banks lied ….
1) Watch the Shanghai Index ! It has risen from its July’s low to almost 2600 ; a key resistance level.
2) Watch light crude oil prices (key indicator for the Chinese demand)
3) Did you just make some money on this rally ? SELL !!!!
I am bearish ? No, its just NOT the time to “buy and hold”

Honeymoons don't last forever

  
Analysis, Education
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A love affair should always be a honeymoon. And the only way to make sure of that is to keep changing the man; for the same man can never keep it up.

GEORGE BERNARD SHAW, Too True to Be Good

I had written ,Honeymoon is over for this stock.

-Just see it had crashed from 410 level to 320 in just 19 days.

Now ,This is the way to trade in Future Segment and not for Rs.1 or 2 !!

Yes ,Just 4 days back ..Boldly written that Honeymoon for stock is over.

-Yes ,On Monday written to Sell.And all our Subscribers were short.

Just see it crashed from 551 to 479 level in just 3 sessions.

You all enjoyed rally in or not.

In just 4 sessions :Spurted from 522 to 570 level.

                                                

-In Last two sessions ,As expected and was on Wednesday.Just see both stocks were on Fire.

Now ,Just think it over is it a Magic ,Miracle or Power of chart ?

Updated at 2:50/14th May/Baroda

The market is like an ocean

  
  Education
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trading_for_a_livingThe market is like an ocean – it moves up and down regardless of what you want. You may feel joy when you buy a stock and it explodes in a rally. You may feel drenched with fear when you go short but the market rises and your equity melts with every uptick. These feelings have nothing to do with the market – they exist only inside you.

The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behavior.

The ocean does not care about your welfare, but it has no wish to hurt you either. You may feel joy on a sunny day, when a gentle wind pushes your sailboat where you want it to go. You may feel panic on a stormy day when the ocean pushes your boat toward the rocks. Your feelings about the ocean exist only in your mind. They threaten your survival when you let your feelings rather than intellect control your behavior.

A sailor cannot control the ocean, but he can control himself. He studies currents and weather patterns. He learns safe sailing techniques and gains experience. He knows when to sail and when to stay in the harbor. A successful sailor uses his intelligence.

Who was having this NEWS ?

  
Analysis, Education
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http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/ril-loses-bid-for-canadian-firm/388837/

Above is the hrly chart of Reliance (Yesterday’s trading ).From 1030 to 1072…What a rally ?

On 3rd March ,LyondellBasell NEWS was out and stock zooomed from 992 to 1027 level in single session.

-Just think it over :Why this is happening with all companies listed in INDIA ?

-If u hunting to buy some company….is it Bad NEWS for company ?

If u lose …….and if u are not able to get Foreign Company…is it good for Domestic company ?

Technically ,I had written stock looking Hot only.

But who was having this NEWS …that it had has lost out on its $2-billion takeover bid for Calgary-based Value Creation.

-Media is reporting Today morning …so somebody was having this NEWS during trading hrs itself ??

Yes ,Chart indicated 2 days back only…Fiery move on card.

But reasons were known to some Insiders only…..Jai ho !!

Updated at 6:35/17th March/Baroda

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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What I say to the youngling…
“Pray for the best, plan for the worst and go about our everyday business”

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” – William O’Neil

“When asked if there was a technique for making money on the stock exchange, Nathan Rothschild said, “There certainly is. I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” – William O’Neil

“Only a fool holds out for the top dollars,” said Joe Kennedy, one-time wall street speculator and the father of former President John F. Kennedy. The object is to get out while a stock is up, before it has a chance to break. Gerald M. Loeb states, ” Once the price has risen into estimated normal or overvaluation areas, the amount held should be reduced steadily as quotation advance.” (At this point it’s all right to ask yourself, “Why didn’t I sell when it was going up and looked so strong?”)” — William O’Neil

“Another thing to bear in mind is this: Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.” – Jesse Livermore

Amos Hostetter-Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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Amos Hostetter: Trading Dont’s

  • Don’t sacrifice your position for fluctuations.
  • Don’t expect the market to end in a blaze of glory. Look out for warnings.
  • Don’t expect the tape to be a lecturer. It’s enough to see that something is wrong.
  • Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.
  • Don’t imagine that a market that has once sold at 150 must be cheap at 130.
  • Don’t buck the market trend.
  • Don’t look for the breaks. Look out for warnings.
  • Don’t try to make an average from a losing game.
  • Never keep goods that show a loss, and sell those that show a profit. Get out with the least loss, and sit tight for greater profits.

Amos Hostetter: Dangers in Trading caused by Human Nature

  • Fear: fearful of profit and one acts too soon.
  • Hope: hope for a change in the forces against one.
  • Lack of confidence in ones own judgment.
  • Never cease to do your own thinking.
  • A man must not swear eternal allegiance to either the bear or bull side.
  • The individual fails to stick to facts!
  • People believe what it pleases them to believe.

What Greed and Fear do ?

  
  Education
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 What greed and fear do:

  • Not setting a stop when the method requires placing a stop (fear of taking a loss).
  • Moving a stop when it shouldn’t have been moved (fear of taking a loss).
  • Removing a stop when it was already in place (fear of taking a loss).
  • Taking profits too early when the signal to exit has not been given (fear of profits being taken).
  • Taking profits too late when the signal is already given (greed).
  • Chasing the market when the entry is already past or no signal was given (greed of missing profits).
  • Not making the entry when the signal is given (fear of losing again).
  • Buying the pullback that is no longer a pullback but a decline (greed based on judgment that it’s now cheaper) or short selling when the rally is now a continued primary direction (fear of losing).
  • Adding on a losing position, i.e. averaging down (fear of losing).

How does a trader go about trading without fear or greed? Although no one can really trade without them, the emotion will still be there, especially when the position is still on. However he can keep them under control by not acting on them.

                                            There are few solutions to this problem:

  1. Write a trading plan for each and every trade and referring to it when he feels the emotion is overtaking him.
  2. Keep a trading journal with each trade taken along with thoughts and emotions during the open position. Recording these moments will reveal how much or how little control he has over emotions that influence or interfering with his trading method.
  3. Use an automated trading system to avoid interacting and interfering with trading. When no trading decisions have to be taken, there is less of a tendency to interfere.
  4. Once the trade is taken and stops and targets are set, walk away from the trading station or go about with other tasks. Stay close and follow every up and down ticks will increase emotions and will eventually affect trading.
  5. Keep the Profits and Loss (P/L) columns out of the desktop. This is the most important factor of all emotions: counting money. By having it readily available emotion will be exaggerated swinging up and down according the profits or losses going up or down. Removing this information is especially recommended for day traders.
  6. Trade small size until emotions are under control. By doing this, it’s obvious that it’s not about making money but about trading the method properly. The further away the thought of money is, the better the emotions are kept at bay.
  7. If trading is technically-based, focus on the charts, not on the quotes windows. Scalpers spend so little time in a position that using quotes and ticks are a necessity. For other traders, these can only increase emotional states.

Bear Market Psychology

  
  Education
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“This is my retirement money. I can’t afford to be out of the market anymore!”
“I don’t care about the price, just get me in!!”
“It’s a healthy correction”
“See, it’s already coming back, better buy more before the new highs”
“Alright, a retest. Add to the position – buy the dip”
“What a great move! Am I a genius or what?”
“Uh oh, another selloff. Well, we’re probably close to a bottom”
“New low? What’s going on?!!”
“Alright, it’s too late to sell here, I’ll get out on the next rally”
“Hey!! It’s coming back. Glad that’s over!”
“Another new low. But how much lower can it go?”
“No, really, how much lower can it go?”
“Good Grief! How much lower can it go?!?”
“There’s no way I’ll ever make this back!”
“This is my retirement money. I can’t afford to be in the market anymore!”
“I don’t care about the price, just get me out!!”

Amos Hostetter: One Great Trend Trader

  
  Education
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Amos Hostetter: Trading Dont’s

  • Don’t sacrifice your position for fluctuations.
  • Don’t expect the market to end in a blaze of glory. Look out for warnings.
  • Don’t expect the tape to be a lecturer. It’s enough to see that something is wrong.
  • Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.
  • Don’t imagine that a market that has once sold at 150 must be cheap at 130.
  • Don’t buck the market trend.
  • Don’t look for the breaks. Look out for warnings.
  • Don’t try to make an average from a losing game.
  • Never keep goods that show a loss, and sell those that show a profit. Get out with the least loss, and sit tight for greater profits.

Amos Hostetter: Dangers in Trading caused by Human Nature

  • Fear: fearful of profit and one acts too soon.
  • Hope: hope for a change in the forces against one.
  • Lack of confidence in ones own judgment.
  • Never cease to do your own thinking.
  • A man must not swear eternal allegiance to either the bear or bull side.
  • The individual fails to stick to facts!
  • People believe what it pleases them to believe.

Think about how simple Hostetter’s wisdom appears on the surface. But how many adhere to such principles?

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